Comment 2SMM Re: Economics Still Not Quite There?

Story

California Basking in Record Amount of Electricity from Solar

Preview

Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 0)

by Anonymous Coward on 2014-09-19 14:24 (#2SM0)

I really, really wanted to get into solar for my home a year or two ago, until I discovered the hard facts.

1. It is completely unfeasible for a typical home to go completely "off-grid" due to the humongous cost, space, and maintenance required for all the batteries to smooth the day/night load patterns.

2. So the vast majority of installations are "grid-tied", meaning they pull power from the normal grid, and sometimes feed power back into it.

3. Even with the generous incentives, pay-back time for an initial investment is at least 4-7 years, during which time that $20,000 might have been better spent in a mutual fund.

4. I didn't really have $20,000 lying around anyway.

There are leasing options that mitigate some of this, but not entirely. Do you really want to be paying Elon Musk (investor in SolarCity) every month in perpetuity instead of your electric company?

Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 2, Informative)

by kwerle@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 16:06 (#2SM4)

I'm a coder for SolarCity.
1. It is completely unfeasible for a typical home to go completely "off-grid" due to the humongous cost, space, and maintenance required for all the batteries to smooth the day/night load patterns.
And there are rainy days. And rainy weeks. That's what the grid is for.
Batteries will be cheaper when Elon finishes the GigaFactory - but that's no reason to wait for solar - just for the batteries.
2. So the vast majority of installations are "grid-tied", meaning they pull power from the normal grid, and sometimes feed power back into it.
Like a big battery.
3. Even with the generous incentives, pay-back time for an initial investment is at least 4-7 years, during which time that $20,000 might have been better spent in a mutual fund.
.. payback in 4-7, leaving you with more than 20 years of profit. Unless you plan on moving in the next 4-7, in which case things get a bit murky. I think the general population does not yet appropriately value panels on the roof of the house they're buying.
4. I didn't really have $20,000 lying around anyway.
Next point...
There are leasing options that mitigate some of this, but not entirely. Do you really want to be paying Elon Musk (investor in SolarCity) every month in perpetuity instead of your electric company?
So this is the bottom line: you would rather pay your electric company to continue business as usual instead of lowering your energy costs and (if you care) carbon footprint by getting panels installed for free on your roof.

Seriously. WTF?

Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 0)

by Anonymous Coward on 2014-09-19 18:42 (#2SM5)

Nothing is free. You think I, and my creditors, and my credit rating, simply won't notice that I just took on an additional $25,000 in debt to hold someone ELSE's equipment on my aging roof and garage? Equipment that, by the terms of your faux-lease, you will come and remove at the end, doing who-knows-what to my now-20-years-older shingles? What about the need to replace the roof in the interim? What ABOUT the home's resale value for all the years that there's complicated equipment, lease, and service deal attached to the house?

Yes, it's a very appealing deal, but please don't pretend it's a no-brainer. If it were I'd already have the system (as would many more people steadfastly ignoring the salesshills in Home Depot and elsewhere, who represent all sorts of startups).

There are other concerns (panel degradation, actually declining utility rates in some areas, questionable solar exposure in the northeast, disappearing companies and resold leases, parts supply and repair issues, etc.) that I've read about too. Oh yeah, and the electric companies starting to RAISE rates and/or eliminate discounts for grid-tied users, because they claim the usage pattern of those customers is costing them money and the sold-back power is of little value to them (supposedly).

It absolutely is the future, no doubt, but frankly it still costs too much. I would prefer to see it required as part of new building codes. (I have no connection to either solar or power companies.)

Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1)

by kwerle@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 20:04 (#2SMF)

I'm a coder, I don't speak for SolarCity, I'm not a lawyer or a construction person.

Point by point.
Nothing is free.
OK, we can quibble about things that are $0 out of pocket. Let's.
You think I, and my creditors, and my credit rating, simply won't notice that I just took on an additional $25,000 in debt to hold someone ELSE's equipment on my aging roof and garage?
If your creditors take umbridge at your investing of $0 in order to reduce your monthly energy bill, and the fact that you continue to pay it off, I'm thinking you might want new creditors.
Equipment that, by the terms of your faux-lease, you will come and remove at the end, doing who-knows-what to my now-20-years-older shingles?
http://www.solarcity.com/commercial/homebuilders
You generally have four options at the end of the Lease:
  • Request to renew the agreement in five year increments up to two times
  • Have SolarCity remove the system for free
  • Purchase the system (varies by state)
  • Upgrade to a new system
What about the need to replace the roof in the interim?
Last I heard, minimal fee for SolarCity to remove and then replace the system while you re-roof. Again, I'm not a lawyer, rep, etc - and I can't find a reference to it online.
What ABOUT the home's resale value for all the years that there's complicated equipment, lease, and service deal attached to the house?
Again, not a lawyer, but this is probably the trickiest one:
http://www.solarcity.com/commercial/homebuilders

When you sell your home, you may transfer your Lease to the homebuyer at no charge. SolarCity will provide a Lease Transfer Agreement for both parties to sign and SolarCity to execute. You must provide SolarCity notice of your intent to transfer in accord with the terms of the Lease to ensure that the Lease transfer process is completed in a timely manner. Execution of the Lease transfer document by SolarCity relieves the previous Lease owner of Lease obligations. For additional questions, contact the SolarCity Customer Care Team at:CustomerCare@solarcity.com or (888) 765-2489 x5999.

I've bought 2 homes (and sold one), and one more paper to sign doesn't seem like a big deal to me...
Yes, it's a very appealing deal, but please don't pretend it's a no-brainer. If it were I'd already have the system (as would many more people steadfastly ignoring the salesshills in Home Depot and elsewhere, who represent all sorts of startups).
It's not a no brainer. If you think it's likely you will move in the next 5-10 years, then there is some cause to consider. If you don't consume much electricity, then it might not be financially viable for you at this time. But if you're not moving and you consume a reasonable amount of energy, then it's pretty straightforward.

And, frankly, if you do a lease and you end up moving in a year - no biggie. It's not like you spent money to get the system installed.
There are other concerns (panel degradation, actually declining utility rates in some areas, questionable solar exposure in the northeast, disappearing companies and resold leases, parts supply and repair issues, etc.) that I've read about too.
http://www.solarcity.com/commercial/homebuilders
How does the performance guarantee work?
SolarCity guarantees that your system will produce as much electricity as we promise, or we will pay you back. This takes into account normal weather variation and solar panel performance over time. The amount of electricity we promise to deliver is stated in your contract. We track your system performance through our SolarGuard monitoring service. For additional questions, contact the SolarCity Customer Care Team at CustomerCare@solarcity.com or (888) 765-2489 x5999.
Oh yeah, and the electric companies starting to RAISE rates and/or eliminate discounts for grid-tied users, because they claim the usage pattern of those customers is costing them money and the sold-back power is of little value to them (supposedly).
We can't control grid companies. I have colorful things to say about those kinds of practices, but I'm not a lawyer, rep, etc.
It absolutely is the future, no doubt, but frankly it still costs too much. I would prefer to see it required as part of new building codes. (I have no connection to either solar or power companies.)
For many people, it is the present. Not all. My sister lives in Washington (mid state). Her power is insanely inexpensive (lots of hydro) and they have lots of weather. Solar isn't for her (at this time). But in areas with lots of sun that run AC a lot, solar is a no brainer.

Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 0)

by Anonymous Coward on 2014-09-19 21:09 (#2SMG)

"If your creditors take umbridge at your investing of $0 in order to reduce your monthly energy bill, and the fact that you continue to pay it off, I'm thinking you might want new creditors."

Thanks, I appreciate your thoroughness and that you responded to my points seriously. However, that particular line is silly -- we would be quite literally taking on an additional $20-something thousand dollars in personal debt, and I don't see how you can dismiss that. It's not a secured mortgage -- it's the same as taking on $25,000 in personal credit card debt, or a new car lease. The moment the lease is signed, WE OWE YOU THAT MUCH MONEY and are paying it off. It's a VERY significant debt. I honestly don't think Experian gives two crapturds that I'm "doing it for a good cause".

At least, I think that's how it works from my layman's point of view. (Techie, not a lawyer, accountant, or solar system employee.)

The other response I thought was a bit iffy was "And, frankly, if you do a lease and you end up moving in a year - no biggie. It's not like you spent money to get the system installed." You're completely forgetting that for many potential buyers the very existence of the panels and system, even aside from thet lease issue, can be a turn-off. Not everyone is happy to take on someone else's great home improvement. Again, I think panels should be the NORM, but they're currently not and some people would think of them as equivalent to a moat -- an wanted, oddball feature.

But again, thanks for the point by point.

Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1)

by kwerle@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 22:08 (#2SMM)

I have a pretty skewed vision of debt. I have virtually none beside the home and the monthly visa that I pay off.

Even so, the debt on the panels is not like the debt on your car.

http://www.solarcity.com/commercial/homebuilders
What happens if the solar panels or inverter need repair?
If we're alerted of a problem through SolarGuard, we will give you call to help diagnose the problem and dispatch a repair team to fix it if needed. SolarCity will perform all equipment repairs at no cost to you.

I don't know what that looks like on financial documents, but part of the reason SolarCity can put panels on your roof for no money down is the fact that it is so low risk. People pay their energy bill, and there isn't much that will go wrong with 'em.

I don't know credit scores, but I know there is such a thing as "healthy debt" and "unhealthy debt". A mortgage generally falls in the former. Credit cards generally the latter. I'm thinking that panels are more like the former than the latter.

Yeah, moving after a year might be harder if you have panels on your roof. I expect/hope that attitude will change over time as more folks get panels and become aware of the benefits. If you have a high energy bill, I think that'd be the biggest factor in deciding whether or not to go solar.

Thank you for a reasonable discussion, too!

Junk Status

Not marked as junk