Article 41546 China growth slowest since financial crisis as trade war looms - as it happened

China growth slowest since financial crisis as trade war looms - as it happened

by
Angela Monaghan
from Economics | The Guardian on (#41546)

Economic growth of 6.5% in the third quarter was the weakest since early 2009 and is expected to slow further as the effects of China's trade war with the US take hold

2.28pm BST

Before we close up for the today, here's a look at markets across Europe, where the FTSE continues to outperform:

Related: Facebook hires Nick Clegg as head of global affairs

2.09pm BST

As the shock news of Nick Clegg's Facebook appointment was breaking, the Treasury put out a response to this morning's lower than expected borrowing numbers.

Does it provide any clues to what might be in the budget a week on Monday? If anything it suggests Philip Hammond is not prepared to splash the cash, despite a falling deficit this year.

This is the lowest half-year borrowing for 16 years - showing the strong progress we have made in fixing our public finances.

But, at over 85% of GDP last year, our debt remains too high. Our balanced approach is getting debt falling while supporting our vital public services, keeping taxes low and investing in Britain's future.

1.51pm BST

Nick Clegg?!?!
As Head of Global Affairs?!?!
At Facebook?!?!
Can you hear my voice getting higher?!?!
Are you insane?!?! https://t.co/LgT1f6xXWs

1.24pm BST

Twitter is reacting to the news that Facebook has hired Nick Clegg, the former Lib Dem leader who lost his seat at the 2017 general election:

My timeline is intriguingly divided between people disappointed with Nick Clegg for going to work for Facebook and people disappointed with Facebook for hiring Nick Clegg.

Oh lookhttps://t.co/IPO5GVhCYT

Marmalade-dropper from the FT: Facebook hires Nick Clegg. A man who has definitely never previously accepted a job on the basis of promises he'll be able to influence
the course of a big blue juggernaut. https://t.co/zP6NiL7DAm pic.twitter.com/rz4Sbjo4iw

1.07pm BST

Facebook's newest recruit is none other than Nick Clegg, the former Deputy Prime Minister.

According to the FT, he will join the social media giant as head its global affairs and communications team and will move to Silicon Valley in January.

Nick Clegg to run Facebook's global communications team after "months of wooing by Mark Zuckerberg"! https://t.co/zKE5V2P48j

12.14pm BST

As Theresa May returns from Brussels with no Brexit deal, to major divisions in her own party and a people's vote march on Saturday, big business is also keeping up the pressure.

In the latest intervention, the president of Japanese car maker Toyota has said a no-deal Brexit should be avoided "at all costs".

Apprehension is therefore growing that a withdrawal without agreement may become a reality.

It is necessary that an unimpaired trade environment between the United Kingdom and the European Union be maintained and that the automobile industry's activities remain predicated on shared standards, including those regulating vehicle certification.

Related: No-deal Brexit must be avoided at all costs, says Toyota president

11.33am BST

He's the chief executive of a FTSE 100 housebuilder and his huge 75m bonus payout - the biggest of any UK listed company - attracted widespread criticism earlier in the year.

Yet Jeff Fairburn was lost for words when Spencer Stokes, a BBC journalist for Look North in Yorkshire, asked him about it during an interview.

I'd rather not talk about that, it's been well covered actually.

I think that's really unfortunate actually that you've done that.

Asked Jeff Fairburn, CEO of Persimmon Homes about his 75m bonus today. This was his response.... @BBCLookNorth pic.twitter.com/eJraBv1e8i

11.12am BST

The latest figures on the UK's public finances have reinforced expectations that the Treasury's independent forecaster will revise down borrowing for 2018-19.

At the time of the Spring Statement in March, the Office for Budget Responsibility was forecasting borrowing to fall to 37.1bn from 45.2bn in 2017-18.

While there could be some catch-up in public spending later in the year, we still expect public borrowing in 2018/19 as a whole to be only around 30 billion, which would be around 7 billion less than the OBR forecast back in March.

This borrowing undershoot should give the chancellor a little extra wiggle room for his budget, but it will not be enough on its own to cover the cost of announced increases in spending on the NHS, let alone other priority areas where there is pressure to bring austerity to an end.

The budget is therefore still likely to require some tough choices between net tax rises, higher borrowing in the medium term and allowing austerity to continue in parts of the public sector.

10.45am BST

The chancellor Philip Hammond may well have a spring in his step this morning, after the latest official figures show government borrowing fell more than expected in September.

Borrowing was 4.1bn last month, less than the 4.5bn predicted by economists and 800m than a year earlier according to the Office for National Statistics.

10.07am BST

Not all businesses are reaping the benefits of consumer demand in China.

New Look, the value high street fashion retailer, is exiting China, closing all 120 stores with the loss of more than 700 jobs.

Related: New Look to pull out of China with closure of 120 stores

9.57am BST

Corporate results this morning help to put into context slowing growth in China, where swelling middle classes continue to drive demand for luxury goods.

9.04am BST

Investors across Europe are subdued as the week draws to a close.

It's a mixed picture, with the FTSE outperforming its peers. On the flip side, the FTSE MIB is firmly in the red in Italy, where budget concerns continue to weigh on investor minds and are dragging down banking shares.

8.27am BST

Putting China's growth figures in context, Neil Wilson at markets.com says growth of 6.5% is "a nice problem to have".

Growth of 6.5% rather than 6.6% is a pretty nice problem to have but the trade war with the US, higher debt levels and a depreciating currency remain a concern.

Any bounce in Chinese stocks needs to be seen in the context of the three-year collapse in equities.

8.19am BST

One of the weaker spots in China's economy was industrial production, with growth slowing to 5.8% year-on-year in September, from 6.1% in August.

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon, says:

The slowdown makes sense in the context of the sharp downtrend in the manufacturing PMIs in recent months.

The breakdowns available at this stage offer little sign of green shoots. In particular, cement production is falling again, though this could reflect environmental curbs, rather than suggesting that the construction sector is back in the doldrums, after its recent positive contribution.

8.05am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

China's economy grew by 6.5% in the third quarter according to official figures published this morning.

Official GDP growth slowed last quarter consistent with broader evidence that the economy is cooling. There are some early signs in the September data that policy support is starting to gain traction, but we think more easing will still be needed in order to stabilise growth.

Looking ahead, we doubt the latest pick-up in infrastructure spending will be enough to prevent the economy from cooling further in the coming quarters. Policy easing has yet to reverse the downward trajectory in broad credit growth, a key headwind to the economy, and front-loading by US importers means that the impact of tariffs has yet to be felt.

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