UK inflation rate hits seven-month low as Brexit effect fades - business live

Boost for hard-pressed consumers as Britain's inflation rate drops to its lowest since July 2017

• Breaking: CPI inflation rate drops to 2.7%, from 3%
• Lowest inflation reading in seven months
• Treasury says it's helping, but TUC wants more
• Food and fuel prices helped lower inflation
• Experts: Wages could catch up with inflation soon

2.52pm GMT

Time for a quick recap

Commenting on today's inflation figures, ONS Head of CPI Phil Gooding said: https://t.co/sA0JdUUgzh pic.twitter.com/Y3ieekzG5X

2.33pm GMT

Despite Facebook's deepening problems, the US stock market is recovering from Monday's losses.

The Dow Jones industrial average, which shed 335 points yesterday, is up 180 today.

2.16pm GMT

Back on inflation, our economics editor Larry Elliott has warned that the Bank of England could raise interest rates in May - if wages rise over the next couple of months.

He writes:

Earnings growth has been creeping up and before too long earnings will be increasing more quickly than prices. The sharper than expected fall in inflation means the return to rising real incomes will occur sooner and that will mean stronger growth and - from the MPC's perspective - the threat of higher wage inflation.

While there has been little in recent economic data to justify a May increase in rates, earnings data will be crucial. If the annual increase edges closer to 3%, a spring rise will be a real possibility.

Related: UK inflation is falling fast - that's good and bad news

2.08pm GMT

No sign of a bounceback for Facebook yet:

#Facebook shares down again today as authorities on both sides of the Atlantic call for answers over the #CambridgeAnalytica scandal. pic.twitter.com/aqgJGEbLou

1.48pm GMT

Over in New York, shares in Facebook have fallen by another 3% at the start of trading.

That's on top of yesterday's 6.7% rout, and knocks another $15bn off its market capitalisation.

I have today written to @facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg calling on him to give oral evidence to @CommonsCMS following recent reports in @guardian and @nytimes pic.twitter.com/y5xnGHzaNI

1.29pm GMT

European stock markets have recovered a little ground this morning, after yesterday's selloff.

In London the FTSE 100 has gained 22 points, having slumped to a 15-month low on Monday.

12.45pm GMT

Elsewhere in the markets, legendary motor racing star-turned-airline manager Niki Lauda has landed a deal with Ryanair.

12.11pm GMT

Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, believes the Bank of England's monetary policy committee will raise interest rates at least once this year.

"Our expectation is of no change to rates at this week's BoE meeting] but of a rise at the May meeting. In our view, though, the market is still focusing too much on the committee's voting patterns. It is possible for every member to hold steady this time while also planning to vote for a hike in May.

"The markets are better served by reading the Bank's minutes closely and observing Mark Carney's comments. It was clear at Davos, for example, that he was readying the markets for a potential rate increase during the first half of the year.

11.57am GMT

The pound has dipped slightly, following the news that Britain's consumer prices index has dropped to a seven-month low.

Traders are calculating that the inflation slowdown makes a UK interest rate rise a little less likely in the next few months.

Pound drops against dollar as Britain's inflation rate falls more than forecast https://t.co/pHs3uoaC9B pic.twitter.com/XNeIbTQZzN

11.37am GMT

Households won't be popping champagne bottles open when wages finally start rising faster than inflation.

Economist Rupert Seggins has shown how workers' earnings power has been badly eroded since the financial crisis, meaning people are poorer in real terms:

In for the long haul. Cost of living squeeze easing means real average earnings deteriorating at a less fast rate. Need cost of living squeeze to end to start recovering lost ground. Then there's miles of ground to make up to actually recover lost real purchasing power since 08. pic.twitter.com/OkLikK3Oty

10.50am GMT

In other news, the threat of a global trade war has hit investor confidence in Germany:

*GERMAN ZEW INVESTOR SENTIMENT FALLS TO 5.1 VS. EST. 13.0

10.48am GMT

House price inflation also fell last month, but is still rising faster than wages.

The average house price rose by 4.9% in the 12 months to January, down from 5% a month earlier.

10.38am GMT

It's possible that wages will catch up with inflation this month, predicts Stephen Clarke, senior economic analyst at the Resolution Foundation.

"Import-driven inflation is clearly slowing. Food and beverage prices are rising at a slower rate than last month and further falls are likely. We can also see a slowdown in transport inflation, contributing just 0.35 ppts to annual inflation down from 0.8ppts a year ago, and the price of utilities is rising at a slower rate than before. Both are underpinned by a fall in the price of energy from its New Year highs.

"The sharp fall in inflation means we could be seeing an earlier end to the pay squeeze than previously expected, perhaps as early as this month"

What this means for households? Pay squeeze could be coming to an end a bit earlier than expected, though likely to persist (albeit marginally) in tomorrow's figures (4) pic.twitter.com/CMcfB74kJG

10.27am GMT

Mel Stride, financial secretary to the Treasury, insists that the government is helping families cope with inflation.

"We know families feel the cost of living at the end of every working week.

From next month a typical taxpayer will pay 1,000 less income tax than in 2010.

Latest stats from @ONS show inflation fell to 2.7% in February.

"aTMi Inflation is expected to keep falling this year pic.twitter.com/u4Jg1N5tor

We've ai cut taxes and raised the National Living Wage, helping to increase pay for the lowest earners by 7% above inflation pic.twitter.com/lAvQhyu97y

"Britain's living standards crisis is far from over. Today's fall in prices may ease the pressure a bit. But working people will still be worse off at the end of this parliament than before the crash.

"The government must up its game. Millions of workers haven't had a proper pay rise in years.

The latest figures show inflation falling.

The fall in prices will ease the pressure a bit, but working people will still be worse off at the end of this parliament than before the crash. pic.twitter.com/ezK3mzGSYm

10.18am GMT

It's now 14 months since the pound hit a 31-year low against the US dollar at $1.20, driving import prices higher.

Sterling has since recovered to around $1,40. Phil Gooding, head of CPI at the Office for National Statistics, believes the impact of the pound's slide is now fading:

"A small fall in petrol prices alongside food prices rising more slowly than last year helped pull down inflation, as many of the early 2017 price increases due to the previous depreciation of the pound have started to work through the system.

"Hotel prices also fell and the cost of ferry tickets rose more slowly than last year, when prices were collected on Valentine's Day when many people could have been taking mini-breaks."

10.10am GMT

The battle against inflation isn't over, warns Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC.

He predicts that consumer prices could push higher this month, as retailers and transport firms prepare for Easter:

"It is not a surprise to see UK inflations tarting to fall back - from 3% in January to 2.7% in February. Forecasters were expecting price increases to ease back this year. But the rate of reduction is likely to remain slow and volatile. The fact that Easter is early this year could push inflation back up again in March.

The UK recovery is now nearly nine years old, and yet our official interest rate is exactly where it was nine years ago. A further interest rate rise would be justified this Spring - which would show that the UK is following the lead of the US Federal Reserve in embarking on a policy of gradual and careful interest rate rises."

10.01am GMT

This slowdown in inflation should bring some relief to poorer families, says Richard Lim of Retail Economics:

"Key areas driving the decline included transport and food which comprise a large chunk of expenditure, especially for the least affluent households.

"While real earnings remain in negative territory, the financial pinch will continue to ease and we expect growth to resurface by mid-2018."

9.59am GMT

Jeremy Cook, chief economist at WorldFirst, predicts that UK pay rises could overtake inflation soon:

"Following the decision by the ONS to exclude pork pies and nightclub bottled lagers from the inflation basket, we will soon get to a point wherein the declines the pound suffered following the EU referendum go a similar way.

CPI at 2.7% is the lowest since July of last year and while wages are hardly setting the world alight, we could be within a few months of real wages turning positive for the first time since the beginning of last year."

9.56am GMT

Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news

9.55am GMT

9.55am GMT

British inflation seems to be falling back from its recent peak, says Suren Thiru of the British Chambers of Commerce:

Looks increasingly likely that the UK is now past the peak of the recent spike in CPI #inflation and price growth will ease further over the coming months as the impact of the post-EU referendum decline in sterling drops out of the calculation pic.twitter.com/sRE2j6YBSO

#inflation imported into the UK has been slowing for 12 months. Nothing in today's @ONS data to alter our view that a 25bp increase in May is all we will get from the Bank of England in 2018. Consumer spending headwinds during H2 should mute core inflation pressures. pic.twitter.com/bGjIlKz8LD

Average earnings at 2.5%, inflation now at 2.7% - the wage data lag inflation figures, but evidence that this year the incomes squeeze could come to an end

9.46am GMT

More detail:

9.43am GMT

This drop in inflation suggests that the impact of the Brexit vote is finally fading.

Transport and food has the biggest downward impact on inflation, according to the Office for National Statistics.

9.41am GMT

9.32am GMT

Breaking! UK inflation has fallen to its lowest since last July.

The consumer prices index has fallen to 2.7% in February, from 3% in January, taking some pressure off hard-pressed households.

9.25am GMT

Real wages in the UK have been falling since last spring, so the end of the cost of living squeeze can't come soon enough.

New data from Barclaycard shows that 39% of people feel poorer than a year ago, due to rising inflation. Food and fuel prices are a key factor.

9.16am GMT

Economist Sam Tombs predicts that today's inflation data will cut the chances that the Bank of England raises interest rates this spring.

Key UK #inflation data out at 9:30. Most economists (myself included) think CPI inflation dropped to 2.8% in Feb, from 3.0% in Jan. Would be below the MPC's 2.9% forecast and undermine the case for a May rate hike.

9.08am GMT

Just in: Europe's trade commissioner, Cecilia Malmstrim, is jetting to America to insist that the EU is excluded from the new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

Malmstrim, who has already threatened retaliatory action on American products, will meet with commerce secretary Wilbur Ross.

Off to Washington DC. Will be Meeting Secretary of Commerce Mr Ross. Will insist that EU as a whole is excluded from tariff measures. We should work together to adress overcapacity in steel and aluminium.

The President has "a broad view of the national security concept" pic.twitter.com/PGOQiR45pw

8.59am GMT

Economist Rupert Seggins is tweeting some handy charts about inflation:

1. UK inflation figures for February out at 9.30 today. Consensus for CPI is for a fall to 2.8%y/y from January's 3%y/y pic.twitter.com/qfX9eYMy1i

2. The focus for UK inflation continues to be core inflation. The impact from sterling showed up sooner than history would suggest, but it is still unclear how long sterling will take to pass through. Consensus is for 2.5%y/y in February, down from January's 2.7%y/y. pic.twitter.com/cQObUmtA4u

3. Compared to the US & Euro Area, UK inflation is clearly higher, but not wildly so. Core inflation continues to be at the heart of it, but food price inflation has also been notably higher. Energy inflation, as ever, is a global thing. pic.twitter.com/D1OBvOo3KV

8.09am GMT

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Britain's inflation is in the spotlight today, and for the first time in months we might get some good news.

The British pound will be front and centre this morning in light of the release of the UK inflation report.

The Consumer Price Index is the number one concern for the Bank of England as the rallying inflation has forced the British central bank to grow more hawkish and signal three rate hikes over the next three years. Today's report will be important in assessing when the first hike for this year will come.

Related: Where's Zuck? Facebook CEO silent as data harvesting scandal unfolds

"It's time for Mark Zuckerberg to stop hiding behind his Facebook page."

This is not the first time that Facebook have been caught being lax over their controls; both users and regulators are going to want this to be the last or at least see the firm go to extraordinary lengths to prevent incidences like this happening again. The next few weeks will be crucial as to how Facebook responds to the allegation.

Tuesday's Financial Times: "Uber halts self-drive tests after autonomous car kills pedestrian" #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/L0Gowxsez8