Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK business secretary warns Britain will be hit by Liberation Day' tariffs

Wardrobe theatre, Bristol

Lidl and Ocado grow strongly, but Asda loses market share despite recent reset, Kantar figures show

Survey shows between 56% and 79% across seven countries in favour if Trump introduces Liberation Day' leviesA large majority of western Europeans support retaliatory tariffs against the US, a survey has suggested, if Donald Trump introduces sweeping import duties for major trading partners as expected this week.The US president appears likely to unleash a range of tariffs, varying from country to country, on Wednesday, which he has called Liberation Day. He also said last week that a 25% levy on cars shipped to the US would come into force the next day. Continue reading...

Ministers urged to act as energy, water, car tax, TV licences and a string of other increases squeeze households

President promises he will be very kind' but critics warn his strategy risks triggering chain reaction and global trade warAs Donald Trump prepared to unveil a swathe of reciprocal tariffs, global markets braced and some Republican senators voiced their opposition to a strategy that critics warn risks a global trade war, provoking retaliation by major trading partners such as China, Canada and the European Union.The US president said on Monday he would be very kind" to trading partners when he unveils further tariffs this week, potentially as early as Tuesday night. Continue reading...

Sir Richard Branson's airline returns to profitability but says consumer uncertainty is hitting bookingsVirgin Atlantic has warned of a slowdown in demand for transatlantic travel, prompting a further fall in the share price of rival British Airways' owner, IAG.Both UK long-haul carriers lean heavily on lucrative routes between London and North America to boost their profits, and analysts have warned that economic uncertainty and growing tension between the US and Europe could start to harm their business. Continue reading...

Shares slide after President Donald Trump says new reciprocal tariffs expected this week will include all nations, and Goldman Sachs warn US recession more likely

How the wave of increases will hit your household finances - and what you can do about it

Welsh mining | Bridget Christie | Ancient Greek | Nuuk ambitions | April foolYour report on the revival of goldmining in north Wales (Going for gold: coin marks hope of bringing Welsh mine back from the dead, 26 March)( made me recall a summer I spent camping in the area in the 1970s, when, in the village pub, Ienjoyedthe stories of locals who had worked in the mine. One theme was how the proceeds of illicitly siphoned gold had funded new houses in the locality. If true, this is perhaps one of the few examples of trickle-down economics in practice.

Downing Street says it reserves right' to respond to protect national interest when US levies are announced this weekDowning Street says it expects the UK to be hit by more tariffs when Donald Trump announces his latest round of trade barriers on Wednesday and said it reserves the right" to respond to protect the national interest.Ministers are now expecting the UK to be hit by a tariff that will apply to all countries as part of the US president's liberation day", despite hoping to have secured a carve-out. Continue reading...

February's dip in inflation was only a blip - the pain for consumers and the UK economy is poised to continue

Threat of deepening trade war on eve of Trump's Liberation Day' spooks investors across US, Asia-Pacific and EuropeStock markets across the world fell heavily on Monday after Donald Trump suggested that new tariffs he is expected to announce this week would hit all countries".Shares fell across Asia-Pacific markets, in Europe and in the US after the US president crushed hopes that reciprocal tariffs" expected on Wednesday would target only countries that have the largest trade imbalances with the US. Continue reading...

After myriad false starts and much fluctuation, the lingering question is not how far Trump can take his trade wars, but how far he willDonald Trump won back the White House with a promise to transform the US economy. Millions of Americans, struggling with higher prices and bigger bills, elected a president who pledged to revive his country's industrial heartlands - and leave the rest of the world to pick up the bill.On Wednesday - a day dubbed Liberation Day by the president and his aides - Trump has vowed to pull the trigger and impose an historic barrage of tariffs on goods from overseas he claims will fund an extraordinary revival. Continue reading...

Government fears hit from new US trade barriers but remains hopeful of progress in ongoing negotiationsMinisters believe Britain will be hit by more tariffs when Donald Trump unveils his latest round of trade barriers on Wednesday as part of what the US president is calling liberation day".On Sunday night, Keir Starmer spoke with Trump in what Downing Street described as part of productive negotiations" towards a deal. A No 10 spokesperson said both men had agreed talks between the two sides would continue at pace this week", adding: They agreed to stay in touch in the coming days." Continue reading...

Lincoln blockaded southern cotton, McKinley hit Britain with tariffs and Nixon abandoned the gold standard: a quick history of transatlantic economic meddlingAfter the American civil war began in 1861, President Abraham Lincoln tried to hamstring the economy of the southern states by blockading cotton exports. Yet that cotton was mostly sent to northwest England, and when supplies dried up in 1862, around 60% of cotton mills of Lancashire stopped production, causing huge hardship, job losses and hunger - and a riot in Stalybridge. Continue reading...

OBR's verdict of a long-term 0.4% boost to GDP from fewer building restrictions will have real political impact but there are gaps in fundingOne of the few bright spots in Rachel Reeves's bleak spring statement was the economic boost the forecasters expect to result from the government's planning changes.Reeves was so delighted to be able to announce some upbeat news, she pinched a phrase from Gordon Brown, calling the resulting extra 3.4bn for public services the proceeds of growth". Continue reading...

The chancellor's careful calculations for her spring statement are likely to be blown out of the water by a looming US trade war From more tax to rewriting budget rules: six alternative ways Reeves could raise moneyAs Rachel Reeves powered through her spring statement on Wednesday, telling the country she was restoring stability to the public finances" few in the House of Commons chamber seemed to know what to make of it all.Reeves's message did not seem to resonate with the underlying mood of uncertainty and anxiety at home and abroad. Many Labour MP nodded loyally along with her, trying to impress the whips. Others on the government benches looked grave. Growth forecasts for this year had been halved. Money would have to be raised to meet the chancellor's own fiscal rules, and the poorest would be the ones bearing thebrunt. Continue reading...

With the economy stagnating, this is the very worst time to depress demand in order to be seen to balance the books'Alas! Were it not for the fact that he was cremated, the great economist John Maynard Keynes would have been turning in his grave at the way the economics of last week's spring budget - sorry, spring statement - were greeted by most of the media.Of course, the principal culprit was the chancellor of the exchequer, Rachel Reeves. By tying herself to the mast of self-imposed fiscal rules, she managed to ensure that much of the commentary was about how she might have to raise taxes later this year, when the constraints of the fiscal straitjacket might force her to. Continue reading...

Here was a successful economic strategy in the making, marred by its abdication of responsibility to some of society's weakestSteering the British economy out of the mess Labour inherited is a slow and painful process, beset by economic and political hazards. Four Labour governments since the Second World War were derailed by financial crises - in 1949, 1967, 1976 and 2008 - and two Tory governments by crises in 1992 and 2022. Yet, in 2025, Britain is arguably economically more vulnerable than in any of those years. The task for the chancellor is to climb out of this deep pit with as much determination as possible while not risking a sterling or bond sell-off that would derail the government, party and country at least as severely as any of those earlier crises.Thus the much-criticised fiscal rules. These are not a self-imposed straitjacket to be abandoned at will but an attempted firewall to sustain financial market confidence while allowing scope to maintain and increase public investment. The promise to balance day-to-day public spending five years hence with day-to-day tax receipts is a minimum guarantor of fiscal credibility. But meeting this permits a second rule: to allow the state to borrow to maintain and increase capital spending, so protecting public investment from being raided as the soft option when the public budget comes under pressure - as every chancellor has done for more than 50 years, with results we live with daily. Continue reading...

The chancellor has been slated by politicians, the public and campaigners for pushing ahead with brutal welfare cuts - but there were other optionsThere is growing criticism of Rachel Reeves for her orthodox approach to managing the public finances. While it is clear that modest reductions in spending put forward in the spring statement cannot be described as a return to austerity, they are expected to deliver considerable harm to vulnerable people at a time when wealth inequality continues to rise.Critics also believe the chancellor's policies to improve living standards are flawed, and more radical reforms of the way Britain's economy operates need to be supported by the government. Here we look at some of the options open to the chancellor. Continue reading...

Major indices fell by about 2% as data shows rising prices and the Fed holds off on cutting interest ratesWall Street's primary indexes fell sharply on Friday, as data underscored underlying price pressures, stoking fears that the Trump administration's tariff maneuvers could further exacerbate inflationary trends.All the US's major indices had fallen by Friday afternoon with the S&P 500 closing down 2%, the Dow Jones declining 1.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slumping 2.7%. Continue reading...

US stocks fall after latest consumer sentiment poll shows Americans are anxious about the state of the economyOver in Germany, the number of people out of work has risen at the fastest rate since October of 2024.The German labour office said the number of unemployed increased by 26,000 in seasonally adjusted terms to 2.92 million. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected that figure to rise by 10,000.March marks the start of the so-called spring recovery on the labour market. This year, however, the economic slump is noticeably slowing it down."One bright spot was the impressive 1.9% q/q (CE forecast 0.7% q/q) rise in consumers' real incomes in Q4. The 4.2% rise in 2024 as a whole suggests households experienced the strongest real income growth in nine years.With consumer spending hardly rising, at 12.0% in Q4 (up from 10.3% in Q3), the saving rate remains unusually high, suggesting households are choosing to save rather than spend the bulk of those gains. Continue reading...

Ministers seek carve-out from import taxes before 2 April deadline - but critics believe they may have offered too many concessionsUK ministers and senior officials at every level are holding talks with US counterparts this weekend in a last-ditch effort to secure a carve-out from swingeing import taxes.Government sources said ministers were raising Donald Trump's looming tariffs as the No 1" issue in every conversation with the US. Continue reading...

Sales volumes rise 1% in February after City economists had predicted fall amid weak consumer confidenceRetail sales in Great Britain rose last month amid a sharp increase in consumers spending at department stores, hardware shops and clothes outlets.Reflecting a stronger economic backdrop than feared, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed sales volumes rose by 1% on the month, although spending at supermarkets fell after a bumper month in January. Continue reading...

Brian Unwin highlights just how much long-term financing has been lost through leaving the EU. But Fawzi Ibrahim says sovereignty is pricelessPolly Toynbee (Rachel Reeves is all about growth. So why won't she admit that Brexit is its worst enemy?, 25 March) demonstrates conclusively how much self-inflicted economic damage the UK is suffering from Brexit. She could also have mentioned the critical loss of investment from the EU's long-term financing bank, the European Investment Bank (EIB).During the UK's EU membership, the EIB invested some 150bn in mainly infrastructure projects in the UK, representing actual investment of two to three times that amount, taking account of the EIB's ability to attract other long-term co-financers. This key stream of investment and growth ceased with Brexit, and the successor regional investment banks established by the government have not come remotely near to replacing the EIB's level of finance. If, as Toynbee urges, the government were bold enough to face down the Brexiters, there would be at least an opportunity to renegotiate access to EIB finance. No other source of significant investment is in prospect.

Institute for Fiscal Studies also warns Reeves over her focus on sticking with fiscal rules regardless of real world eventsIn an interview with ITV's Good Morning Britain, Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, said she would not accept free tickets for concerts again in the future.Asked about the controversy about her decision to accept two corporate tickets for a Sabrina Carpenter concert at the O2, she repeated the line that she used at her press conference yesterday - that a family member wanted to attend the concert (presumably one of her children, but she did not say that), and that she accepted tickets for a corporate box because security concerns meant it was not deemed safe for her to get normal tickets for the auditorium.I'm just saying I wouldn't do it again. I felt I was doing the right thing. But I do understand perceptions.I am absolutely certain that our reforms, instead of pushing people into poverty, are going to get people into work.And we know that if you move from welfare into work, you are much less likely to be in poverty. Continue reading...

Chancellor may have to reconsider pledge not to raise taxes in light of risky and changing world', thinktank saysPensioners and wealthy people could be the target of tax increases at Rachel Reeves's autumn budget if the drastically worsening economic backdrop fails to improve, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said.After the chancellor's spring statement featured deep cuts to welfare to meet her fiscal targets, the UK's leading experts on the public finances said Reeves could be forced to come back later this year with tax rises. Continue reading...

Chancellor says UK not planning retaliatory tariffs on US at the moment' while PM calls move very concerning'Shares in automakers around the world fell sharply on Thursday after Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all car imports to the US in the latest escalation of his global trade war.The new levies on cars and light trucks will take effect on 3 April, a day after Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs aimed at the countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Even the census ignores them, but multilinguals could hold the key to Britain's social and economic future

The party of change' says it's bound by fiscal rules. What voters hear is that all governments are the same, and things will never get betterIt was change that won it. That was the single word to which Labour eventually boiled down all its complex ambitions; the six-letter slogan plastered triumphantly across its manifesto, because by the summer of 2024 change was pretty much the only thing the people of an exhausted country could all agree on. What kind of change exactly had by that point almost ceased to matter. Anything but this, millions of us told ourselves, as we scattered our votes in all directions.It was clear even at the time that there were tensions between that urgent, almost reckless hunger for change and the naturally careful, cautious instincts of a steady-as-you-go incoming prime minister and chancellor. But Labour papered over them with the impenetrable mantra that, actually, if you think about it, stability is change". Well, actually, it isn't. That line was never going to hold, and with Wednesday's spring statement it finally broke.Gaby Hinsliff is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Prices of some chocolate products have risen by 50% in a year while many have also shrunk in size, Which? reportsShoppers are shelling out for smaller eggs this Easter as shrinkflation takes a bite out of the favourite seasonal treat.The price of eggs made by big names including Cadbury, Mars and Terry's have risen by as much as 50% in some cases while some have also shrunk in size, according to research by consumer champion Which?. When pack sizes are reduced and prices stay the same, or even go up, it is often dubbed shrinkflation". Continue reading...

Labour is braced for a backlash from its MPs over welfare cuts called appalling' by a food bank charity

Amid poor economic growth forecasts and global instability, Rachel Reeves is trying to balance the books by cutting spending on benefits. So why is a Labour government choosing this path? John Harris is joined by the Guardian's political editor, Pippa Crerar, and political correspondent Kiran Stacey to unpick what was in the spring statement, and what it will mean for you Continue reading...

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More than 3 million families will lose out as a result of sweeping cuts to welfare, official analysis shows. This live blog is closed

Treasury watchdog halves growth forecast to 1% for 2025 in report issued alongside spring statement

Chancellor delivers a spring statement strong on wishful thinking and light on compassion for those hit by cuts

Chancellor was able to point to glimmers of hope in spring statement despite economic growth forecasts being slashed

Bigger-than-forecast decline in annual rate in February is positive news for Rachel ReevesThe odds of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in May have been strengthened after inflation cooled by more than forecast last month.In a boost for Rachel Reeves on the day of her spring statement, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said inflation as measured by the consumer prices index eased to 2.8% in February from 3% in January. Continue reading...

Chancellor reveals halving of forecast UK growth this year and extra defence spending

Rachel Reeves is delivering her economic update - here are the main points, with political analysis

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as pound dips after February's inflation report

Caveat from statistics agency is latest sign of its problems collecting reliable economic dataBritain's main measure of wage growth may need to be revised after a large employer failed to supply earnings data on time, the troubled Office for National Statistics has warned.In the latest sign of the ONS's problems with collecting reliable economic figures, which the government uses in economic policymaking, the agency issued a caveat alongside March's average weekly earnings data that as an exception" it was working on opening up revisions further back in time" for the figures. Continue reading...

The chancellor will address MPs on Wednesday, warning of tough spending cuts amid rising government borrowing costs

It's Groundhog Day: the party may change but even under Labour, the script remains stubbornly the sameIt is time to resuscitate Margaret Thatcher's catchphrase: There is no alternative." With a twist, of course. Back then, Tina" was deployed in favour of an economic model that gave us badly distributed low growth, shambolic rip-off privatised utilities, a housing crisis and social insecurity. It is now devastatingly clear that there is no alternative to discarding this failed experiment.Yet this week, our supposedly Labour chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will take a scalpel to departmental budgets already devastated by 15 years of austerity. Our government has robbed most pensioners of the winter fuel payment, and announced 5bn worth of cuts to disability benefits, which strip support from citizens unable to independently clothe themselves, or who need an aide to use the toilet. By the time of the next election, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, all households will have suffered a fall in living standards, but the poorest will be clobbered twice as hard. This, under the rule of a party founded to represent the interests of ordinary people.Owen Jones is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Talk of tough choices ahead, an increase in debt financing, and more initiatives to promote growthThe spring statement offers an opportunity for Rachel Reeves to talk about progress since last October's budget, the government's growth agenda and how it is attempting to raise living standards. However, the chancellor's message is likely to be defensive after being blown off course in recent months.Last year she promised no return to austerity". But after stalled tax receipts denied her the income she expected, and concerns over the global economy and Donald Trump's antics raised the UK's borrowing costs, Reeves is being forced to make cuts to stay within her budget rules. Here is what to expect from Reeves's speech, which is predicted to be relatively short at just 25 minutes. Continue reading...

Tariffs panned by economists for sowing uncertainty that they said made it challenging for businesses to plan aheadUS consumer confidence plunged to the lowest level in more than four years in March, with households fearing a recession in the future and higher inflation because of tariffs.The Conference Board said on Tuesday that write-in responses to the survey showed worries about the impact of trade policies and tariffs in particular are on the rise", adding: There were also more references than usual to economic and policy uncertainty." Continue reading...

This live blog is now closed, you can read more of our UK political coverage hereDowning Street has rejected suggestions that Britain is a freeloading" country that expects the US to meet its defence needs.At the lobby briefing this morning, the PM's spokesperson spoke at length about the contribution the UK makes to joint military operations with the Americans, following the extraordinary leak of messages showing the contempt President Trump's most senior allies have for Europe's record on defence.The account identified as JD Vance' addressed a message at 8:45 to @Pete Hegseth: if you think we should do it let's go. I just hate bailing Europe out again,'" Goldberg wrote. (The administration has argued that America's European allies benefit economically from the US navy's protection of international shipping lanes.)Goldberg continues: The user identified as Hegseth responded three minutes later: VP: I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It's PATHETIC. But Mike is correct, we are the only ones on the planet (on our side of the ledger) who can do this.You can see, from the way in which the UK has worked closely with the US, supplying regional security and defence, our commitment to working with the US on matters of regional security.You'll know the UK provided air-to-air refuelling support for recent strikes against Houthi key rebel targets [the raid discussed in the messages inadvertently shared with Goldberg].Yes. The US is our closest ally when it comes to intelligence and defence. We have a longstanding relationship on intelligence and defence cooperation ... We will continue and continue to build on the very strong relationship we already have with the US. Continue reading...