Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as stocks rise in New York's shortened Christmas Eve sessionIs the Christmas shopping period more of a whimper than a bang for Britain's retailers this year?Shopper traffic yesterday remained stubbornly muted", according to the latest footfall data from Sensormatic Solutions, which shows that visits were 13.1% lower than a year ago.After an unsettled start to the festive period - defined by shaky consumer confidence and spending hesitancy - retailers will be left feeling frustrated that footfall remains stubbornly muted, after many were pinning their hopes on a surge in store traffic yesterday."With consumers leaving purchases right up to the wire, some retailers have released Boxing Day deals early to try and unlock that, so far, elusive consumer spending."What we've seen over the past week is a combination of position squaring in thin markets, after last week's breakdown failed to gain traction, coupled with heightened geopolitical tensions, including the US blockade on Venezuela and supported by last night's robust GDP data." Continue reading...

Going into 2026, the economy has little forward momentum. And there's the issue that things may get worse before they get better Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsShares in Novo Nordisk have jumped 7.5% this morning after it won approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the first weight-loss drug to be administered orally.Yesterday, US regulators gave the green light to a pill version of the blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy, the first daily oral medication to treat obesity. Continue reading...

GDP rose at an annualized rate of 4.3% over the third quarter, far higher than expectedThe US economy surged over the summer, the commerce department announced on Tuesday in one of the final snapshots of the nation's finances to be released in 2025.Gross domestic product (GDP) - a broad measure of the value of goods and services - rose at an annualized rate of 4.3% over the third quarter, far higher than expected and its fastest rate in two years. Continue reading...

Beijing's push to dominate technology through state-backed industrial policy is reshaping global trade and could devastate European industryEmmanuel Macron came back from China in early December empty-handed. The French president's appeal to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to help stop the war in Ukraine was never going to gain traction given Beijing's unqualified support for Russia.Urging Xi to address China's surging trade surplus, the result of the country's economic and industrial policies, predictably also fell on closed ears. Continue reading...

Treasury announces 3 March date to prioritise stability and certainty' after criticism of buildup to November budgetRachel Reeves has set a date of 3 March for an early spring statement, as Labour attempts to draw a line under a year of tax speculation that business leaders blamed for damaging Britain's economy.Announcing a date to prioritise stability and certainty", the Treasury said the chancellor had asked the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to prepare forecasts for the economy and public finances. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Paramount beefs up its offer for Warner Brothers

The idea of a customs union has gained traction, but agreeing a deal would be far from straightforwardAlmost a decade on from the Brexit vote, the verdict is clear. Britain's immediate doomsday economic scenario might not have come to pass. But after years of political paralysis - and with the eventual introduction of tougher trade barriers in 2020 - trade, investment and growth in living standards have all suffered.Just as it was on the morning after the 2016 referendum, the big fight is about what the government should do in response. Continue reading...

ONS finds households' savings ratio has dropped to lowest rate for more than a year across third quarterUK consumers saved less money during the third quarter of the year as higher taxes squeezed disposable incomes.The households' saving ratio - which estimates the percentage of disposable income Britons save rather than spend - dropped 0.7 percentage points to 9.5%, the Office for National Statistics said. That is the lowest rate for more than a year. Continue reading...

Business lobby survey finds firms put brakes on key spending decisions' before autumn budget

Group of 120 experts including Joseph Stiglitz urge fresh debt restructuring plan given scale of destructionA group of the world's top economists - including the Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz - have called for Sri Lanka's debt payments to be suspended as it tackles the devastation caused by Cyclone Ditwah.More than 600 people were killed and hundreds of thousands of homes destroyed across the island, in what Sri Lanka's president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, called the largest and most challenging natural disaster in our history". Continue reading...

Be it better prospects for consumer spending or the tentative signs of rising productivity, the doom and gloom of 2025 could be behind usStalling growth, sticky inflation and fragile bond markets, the UK's economic record in 2025 has hardly been one to inspire cheer. But in the spirit of the festive season, here are a few reasons to hope for a happier new year.The first is that, barring external forces, 2026 should not involve a repeat of this year's fiscal drama. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsGermany's economic recovery from three years of stagnation will get only a subdued start next year, its central bank has warned.However, the Bundesbank predicts growth will pick up pace later on the back of higher government spending.While progress will be subdued initially, it will then slowly pick up.Starting in the second quarter of 2026, economic growth will strengthen markedly, driven mainly by government spending and a resurgence in exports." Continue reading...

ONS figures show public sector net borrowing was 11.7bn - 1.9bn less than in same month last year

President claims bonus the result of tariff revenue but stipend had already been approved in tax-and-spend billWhen Donald Trump promised a one-time $1,776 payment for 1.45 million US military workers to mark the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence during a primetime TV address on Wednesday, he pointed to his favorite source of federal funding.Because of tariffs," the US president said, along with his massive tax-and-spending bill, we are sending every soldier $1,776 - and the checks are already on the way. Nobody deserves it more than our military." Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey switches vote - allowing rate cut today

Another reduction expected next year but monetary policy committee is deeply divided over inflation prospects

Rate-setters back quarter-point cut after steep fall in inflation and weak economic data but vote remained close

UK inflation falls more than expected to 3.2% cementing expectations of interest rate cut tomorrow; oil prices jump after Trump orders Venezuela blockadeThe Food and Drink Federation has taken a closer look at food prices in today's UK inflation data. It says:By category, we have seen a mixed performance. The ONS reported on 48 main categories this month, of which 26 saw inflation slowing, with inflation rising for the other 22 categories.Prices rose the fastest for beef and veal (27.7%), chocolate (17.3%), whole milk (14.8%) and coffee (14.5%).Prices fell for nine categories, with the largest drops for: olive oil (-16.2%), flours (-6.1%), pasta (-4.2%) and sugar (-4.0%).It's good to see food inflation starting to fall, not least as shoppers fill their cupboards for the festive season. Nonetheless, food prices remain higher this Christmas than last and many consumers are having to make tough choices about what they buy this year.Manufacturers continue to work hard to cut costs and pass any potential savings on to consumers, but themselves continue to face significant cost pressures. To really impact this persistent food inflation, we need government to redouble efforts with food businesses to reduce costs, like energy, and boost growth and productivity to bring down prices in the coming weeks and months across the food and drink supply chain. Continue reading...

Monetary policy committee, cautious in recent months, expected to respond with cut in interest rates

Drop in November annual rate adds to case for Bank of England cut to interest rates on Thursday

Price of turkey jumps as much as 15 compared with 2024, while chocolate has steepest mark-upShoppers are paying up to 70% more for Christmas chocolate treats compared with last year, while the price of a turkey has jumped by as much as 15, according to the consumer champion Which?The group analysed a range of ingredients for a typical Christmas dinner, as well as other typical festive treats including mince pies, sparkling wine and chocolates. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as US non-farm payrolls rise by 64,000 in November but shrink by 105,000 in October

October figure from ONS suggests employers laid off workers, as earnings growth excluding bonuses fell

Government says arrangement will bring in extra 400m on top of more than 15bn of existing annual trade with KoreaThe UK has signed a new trade deal with South Korea designed to increase exports of cars, Scottish salmon and Guinness canned in Britain.Keir Starmer described the deal, which replaces an existing agreement, as a huge win for British business and working people". It follows UK deals with India and the US, and the free trade agreement with the EU clinched this year. Continue reading...

Reflecting on chaos of early pandemic, former chancellor said it was acutely stressful' to see rising interest bill on government bondsRishi Sunak was concerned about the UK's ability to fund itself in March 2020 after the government announced rescue measures costing tens of billions of pounds to prevent mass redundancies, the Covid-19 pandemic inquiry has heard.The former prime minister, who was chancellor when the first UK lockdown was announced, said he feared foreign investors had become more concerned about Britain's ability to pay its way than other countries in a similar situation. Continue reading...

City's small shops are reaching tipping point amid higher business rates, staff costs and big chains eager to move inIt's lunchtime at Dormitory, an independent bedlinen store on Gloucester Road in Brighton, and proprietors Sue Graham and Cathy Marriott are peering across the street at the Brighton Sausage Co. They can tell when shoppers have stayed indoors by the number of sausage rolls left in the window. It's a Tuesday before Christmas - supposedly the busiest time of the year. But there's still a big pile remaining.In 10 years' time, we're all going to be going, We need shops. Where have they all gone?'," Marriott says. Her warning echoes widespread fears for Brighton's plentiful independent shops, which have given the Sussex city international renown. Continue reading...

The City expects a cut in interest rates on Thursday but the economic prospects for 2026 complicate the pictureIn the economic gloom of Labour's first year in power, Rachel Reeves has had a reliable shred of comfort to cling to: five times since the general election, the Bank of England has cut interest rates.This week, in all likelihood, the chancellor will get a sixth to shout about, as Threadneedle Street prepares to reduce borrowing costs in an early Christmas present that will be seized upon by the Treasury. Continue reading...

New business rates regime that is poised to hit pubs and hotels is latest example of hasty decision-makingThere is a heavy cloud hanging over Labour's Christmas celebrations.The most recent figures show the economy is going backwards and worse, the slide is prompting recession talk in the corridors of City banks. Continue reading...

Mark Rowley says capital is a safe city, and claims of no-go areas are completely false'Members of the House of Lords have proposed totally unnecessary" and very cruel" amendments to the assisted dying bill in a bid to scupper it, Kim Leadbeater, the MP leading the campaign for the legislation, has said. Kiran Stacey has the story.I have beefed up the post at 9.08am to include the direct quote from Wes Streeting about not being able to guarantee patient safety in the NHS if the strike by resident doctors in England goes ahead. You may need to refresh the page to get the update to appear. Continue reading...

Disappointing UK GDP report shows economy contracted by 0.1% in both September and OctoberToday's GDP report also shows the economy only grew by 1.1% over the last year - a weak performance.The ONS says:GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in the three months to October 2025, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period services grew by 1.5% and construction grew by 1.1%, whereas production fell by 1.3%.GDP is estimated to be 1.1% higher in October 2025, compared with October 2024.The economy contracted slightly in the latest three months, as production fell again and services growth stalled.

GDP fell by 0.1% in October as activity failed to regain momentum after cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover

Exclusive: John Fingleton says regulators need to change their attitude to risk to end the country's economic stagnationOverbearing health and safety rules are stopping Britain building new infrastructure, according to the economist whom Keir Starmer has cited as an inspiration for his growth strategy.John Fingleton, who recently wrote a report for government on how to encourage developers to build new nuclear power plants, told the Guardian regulators needed to change their attitude to risk if the country was to end its long economic stagnation. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsIn the energy sector, Russia's revenues from exports of crude oil and refined products has fallen to its lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.The International Energy Agency has reported this morning that Moscow's sales of fossil fuels fell again in November due to lower export volumes and weaker prices.These brighter prospects extend to our 2026 forecast, which we have upgraded by 90 kb/d, to 860 kb/d y-o-y.We need to ask who is setting the agenda for the UK's future with AI."In the absence of independent regulation or scrutiny, we're at the mercy of technology companies' commercial interests aligning with what the public want." Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Evoke decides to undertake a review of the Company's strategic optionsEuropean stock markets are mostly in the red this morning, as defence company stocks fall.Shares in German automotive and arms manufacturer Rheinmetall are down 3.3%, UK weapons maker BAE System has dropped by 1.27%, and Italian defence firm Leonardo has lost 2.2%.Mainland European equity markets are heading lower in a day that will be dominated by monetary policy out of the Americas.Notably, the defence sector has particularly suffered this morning, with the likes of BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, and Thales lose traction as the end of the Russia-Ukraine war comes into sight. Unfortunately for Europe, the peace agreement appears to be a deal Trump has formed with Russia behind the back of European leaders whom the President has labelled weak". Continue reading...

Chancellor defends budget but tells MPs there were too many leaks' and that and much of them were inaccurateRachel Reeves has condemned leaks before her make-or-break budget as unacceptable" as she revealed her income tax U-turn was agreed in partnership with Keir Starmer.Defending her tax and spending plans before MPs on the Commons Treasury committee, the chancellor said she had been frustrated by leaks that were clearly not authorised" before her November speech. Continue reading...

Data from World Inequality Report also showed top 10% of income-earners earn more than the other 90%

UK gilt yields may have dropped a bit relative to other major countries, but it's not at all clear that the fall with continue

Thinktank says Rachel Reeves's budget had started to assure bond markets about fiscal approach

In a boost for Rachel Reeves, deputy governor says analysis shows chancellor's policies will lower annual rate next yearThe Bank of England expects Rachel Reeves's budget will reduce the UK's headline inflation rate by as much as half a percentage point next year.In a boost for the chancellor after last month's high-stakes tax and spending statement, Clare Lombardelli, a deputy governor at the central bank, said its early analysis showed the policies would lower the annual inflation rate by 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points for a year from mid-2026. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Bank of England policymakers testify to MPs on the Treasury committeeTeresa Ribera, the EC's executive vice-president for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition, has explained why the Commission is probing Google over its artificial intelligence activities:AI is bringing remarkable innovation and many benefits for people and businesses across Europe, but this progress cannot come at the expense of the principles at the heart of our societies,"This is why we are investigating whether Google may have imposed unfair terms and conditions on publishers and content creators, while placing rival AI models developers at a disadvantage, in breach of EU competition rules." Continue reading...

Age of diagnosis' of low-level mental health issues' such as ADHD making system too costly, Conservative leader says

Booming Chinese exports have driven trade surplus past $1tn but also reveal the extent of country's reliance on foreign marketsA boom in exports that has pushed China's trade surplus past $1tn for the first time reveals the extent to which its economy is still overwhelmingly reliant on foreign markets - and the difficulty figures like Donald Trump will have in trying to rebalance global trade.Data released on Monday shows that in the first 11 months of this year, China's trade surplus in goods was $1.076tn. The record trade surplus comes even as exports to the US have plummeted, a reflection of the bruising US-China trade war that, despite a recent cooling, has dampened the flow of goods between the world's two largest economies. Continue reading...

Bank reports 1.1% drop in card spending despite Black Friday boost for retailersUK households cut back on spending at the fastest pace in almost five years last month as consumers put Christmas shopping on hold, according to a leading survey.Adding to concerns that uncertainty surrounding the budget has helped dampen consumer confidence, Barclays said card spending fell 1.1% year on year in November - the largest fall since February 2021. Continue reading...

Paramount says its hostile offer provides superior value, and a more certain and quicker path to completion to WBD shareholders"

Bank under budget pressures as it responds to former Fed chair's report into failure to forecast surging inflation

Markets expect final rate cut amid pressure from Trump as Jay Powell urges central bank to proceed with cautionA divided Federal Reserve meets this week to decide whether to cut interest rates, the US central bank's last meeting before the end of a tumultuous year.The US central bank faces a number of unique challenges as it weighs its latest interest-rate decision. Continue reading...

My husband, Bill Kingdom, who has died aged 69, was a global leader in water supply and sanitation. He worked for 20 years with the World Bank, based in Washington DC from 1999 to 2019, where he led urban and rural water supply and sanitation projects. He developed innovative financial and governance frameworks in south and east Asia, southern Africa, and the Middle East. His work provided access to clean and affordable water for some of the poorest people in the world.Bill's early career was with Mott MacDonald, the engineering consultants based in Cambridge, from 1978 to 1986. During that time he worked for several years on water projects in Indonesia, where he developed a love for the country and enduring friendships. He became fluent in the local language and enjoyed visiting bric-a-brac markets. Later, based in Oman, Bill was instrumental in bringing drinking water to Muscat. Continue reading...

Mark Carney is considering lifting a tanker ban that has protected coastal communities for 53 yearsThe distress call went out to the Canadian coast guard station after midnight on an October night. The Nathan E Stewart, an American-flagged tugboat, sailing through the light winds and rain of the central British Columbia coast, had grounded on a reef.The captain tried to reverse, moving the rudder from hard over port to hard over starboard. The boat pivoted but did not move, and the tug repeatedly struck the sea bed. Continue reading...

High street banks dodged a windfall tax - now they should invest in growth of local lendersNikhil Rathi, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, made a pilgrimage on Friday from its glass and steel HQ in east London to the Pioneers Museum in Rochdale - the spiritual home of the co-operative movement.His unlikely day trip aimed to highlight the City watchdog's role in opening the way to a doubling of the size of the mutuals sector - a Labour manifesto pledge. Continue reading...