The media likes to advertise well-known metrics like unemployment and the lipstick index', but the truth is that no one really knowsAs someone who keeps a close eye on the economy, I often bump into those strange metrics that people like to write about that, supposedly, unlock the secret of whether or not a recession is looming.Given what's going on, it's no surprise that they are back again. Just last week Bloomberg reported a cut in spending at hair stylists. There's the lipstick index" - in tough economic times, women load up on lipstick instead of spending their dwindling funds on bigger-ticket items. Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan liked to follow men's underwear sales because hey, when times are tough, we guys are not willing to buy new shorts. Continue reading...

As Rachel Reeves heads to US for IMF meetings, stance appears unaltered despite chaos unleashed by White HouseKeir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have underlined how much the world has changed after Donald Trump's liberation day", with the UK prime minister even declaring an end to globalisation.But as the chancellor prepares to fly to Washington this week to meet her global counterparts at the International Monetary Fund meetings, Labour appears to see the risks purely in terms of the hit to international trade. Continue reading...

Where once the world came together to fight the credit crunch, Trump's tariffs will set a more divisive testWhen the world's finance ministers and central bank governors gather at the International Monetary Fund in Washington this week, it may kindle memories of another meeting, also held against the backdrop of a global economic crisis, in autumn 2008.Then, as the aftershocks from the collapse of Lehman Brothers ripped through financial markets, central banks coordinated drastic emergency rate cuts, and the UK chancellor, Alistair Darling, urged his G7 counterparts to emulate the UK's approach and shore up stricken banks. Continue reading...

Analysts trace a link between financial security and a troubling, increasingly devil-may-care, attitude to political riskSteve Coogan wants people to see his new film, The Penguin Lessons, and think about how they might be living in a wealthy cocoon, disengaged from the world.The film's central character - a Briton teaching expat children in Argentina - rescues a penguin and tries to help local people persecuted by the rightwing government. Re-enacting a true story, Coogan is showing how it's possible to be involved in local communities even when the protagonist is an outsider. Continue reading...

Price of cocoa - chocolate's key ingredient - has climbed over past year and tariffs on imports will keep prices highFor many Americans celebrating Easter, the holiday is incomplete without chocolate: chocolate bunnies and eggs, bars tucked into Easter baskets, candy hidden in plastic eggs for Easter egg hunts.But rocketing cocoa costs will mean higher prices for chocolate candy this year, and Donald Trump's tariffs on all imports will likely keep prices high for the foreseeable future. Continue reading...

Expectations of inflation, and recent waves of price rises, could be self-fulfilling and fuel greedflation' - and it may not only apply to US consumersOver the past few years consumers have grown used to seeing prices rise at an exorbitant rate. The cost of everything - from used cars to utility bills and the humble loaf of bread - has rocketed in the worst inflation shock across advanced economies since the 1980s.While inflation has cooled in the past year, talk of fast-rising prices is back on the agenda from Donald Trump's escalating trade war. Continue reading...

Figures in No 10 feel the Office for Budget Responsibility's twice-yearly reports undermine Rachel Reeves' plan to scrap the spring statementWhen Labour was riding high in opposition, the Office for Budget Responsibility was a near sacrosanct institution. Its manifesto pledged Labour would never sideline the OBR for political convenience".But emerging from a punishing spring statement, inside No 10 the former devotees have turned sceptics. The fiscal rules remain untouchable - despite Labour MPs' grumbles - but there is intense frustration at the institution that marks the government's homework. Continue reading...

Ministers are ready to be relentless over planning reform. There is a skills gap though - and they must be brave enough to fill itAmid the shock of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) halving its growth forecast last month, one remarkable finding gets too little attention. It predicts housebuilding will rise to its highest level in 40 years, adding 0.2% growth or 6.8bn by 2029-30, potentially rising to more than 0.4% by 2034-35. The government has said that housing scores the biggest positive growth effect from a zero-cost policy" the OBR has ever forecast.This is especially remarkable given that 2024 saw the fewest planning permissions granted for new homes for a decade, and the worst on record, according to the Home Builders Federation (HBF). Planning applications plummeted when the last government scrapped councils' mandatory housing targets, but since Labour reimposed a national planning policy framework, applications in the works have risen by more than 160%.Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Quarter-point cut in main rate to 2.25% aimed at tackling slowdown in eurozone growth and impact of US border taxes

The true scale of what's happening is hard to grasp, so our irrational brains reach for measly acts of self-denialMost of us, confronted with daily forecasts of recession and economic downturn, have an emotional response that expresses itself in a range of behaviours. Big purchases may be deferred or cancelled. Travel plans are revisited. We might review our childcare spend and wonder if we should go out less - all rational decisions in the face of the rising cost of living. Then there are the irrational gestures, those that have little meaning financially but offer us, via small acts of self-denial, an opportunity to feel we're doing something morally rigorous. It's these, in my case, that have lately been triggered.For me, the barometer has always been coffee, a small but ineradicable source of guilt that has only grown as the price of a single flat white creeps up towards 4. Forgoing this small pleasure neither damages my day, nor, on the other hand, does anything significant towards improving my finances. Assuming a one-coffee-a-week spend, the choice to wait until I get home to make coffee will save me about 200 a year. And yet, each time I pass Caffe Nero and keep walking, I'm so proud of myself you would think I'd donated a kidney.Emma Brockes is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Exclusive: civil servants beef up security rules for sensitive negotiating papers over fears posed by hostile US trade policyUK officials are tightening security when handling sensitive trade documents to prevent them from falling into US hands amid Donald Trump's tariff war, the Guardian can reveal.In an indication of the strains on the special relationship", British civil servants have changed document-handling guidance, adding higher classifications to some trade negotiation documents in order to better shield them from American eyes, sources told the Guardian. Continue reading...

World Trade Organization says trade between US and China is expected to plunge by 81% in decoupling'Donald Trump's tariffs will send international trade into reverse this year, depressing global economic growth, the World Trade Organization has warned.In its latest snapshot of the global trading system, the Geneva-based institution says it had previously expected goods trade to expand by a healthy 2.7% this year. As a result of Washington's trade policy, it is now forecasting a 0.2% decline. Continue reading...

First homeowners' grants have long been the go-to policy by state and federal governments. And yet here we are in 2025 with a worsening housing affordability crisis

Worsening global outlook makes gradual and careful' approach on interest rates by Bank of England more difficult

March annual rate comes before expected rise because of household bills going up this month

No dramatic shakeout so far, but jobs data may yet look like a snapshot of the calm before the storm of Trump's tariffs

Wages rise 5.9% in three months to February, while unemployment unchanged at 4.4%

Notices show Trump administration setting stage for levies on both sectors on national security groundsThe Trump administration is kicking off investigations into imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors into the US as part of an attempt to impose tariffs on both sectors on national security grounds, notices posted to the Federal Register on Monday showed.The filings scheduled to be published on Wednesday set a 21-day deadline from that date for the submission of public comment on the issue and indicate the administration intends to pursue the levies under authority granted by the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Such inquiries need to be completed within 270 days after being announced. Continue reading...

Accountants' institute says first quarter of 2025 was harrowing' for companies amid tax rises and US tariffsUK business confidence has fallen to the lowest level for more than two years amid growing concern over tax rises and Donald Trump's escalating trade war, according to a survey.Highlighting the risks to the economy, the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) said the first quarter of the year had been harrowing" for companies across Britain. Continue reading...

Chinese customs official says trade has diversified away from US in recent years and plays up vast domestic market'China has played down the risk of damage to its exports from Donald Trump's tariffs, with an official saying the sky won't fall", as stock markets rose amid signs of a retreat on electronics restrictions.The US president claimed his strategy was working on Monday, with record levels of investment. Addressing reporters at the White House, he continued to threaten new tariffs on pharmaceutical goods. Continue reading...

The deal signed last week between the centre-right CDU and centre-left SPD paves the way for vital investment in Europe's biggest economySome years ago, hundreds of German finance ministry staff dressed in black and formed a giant zero to salute their boss, Wolfgang Schauble, as he left office. It was a tribute to Mr Schauble's extreme fiscal conservatism, which had delivered Germany's first balanced budget in the postwar period. Amid resurgent prosperity in the Angela Merkel years, the so-called black zero - symbolising a constitutional prohibition on public debt- had gradually acquired cult status.As a new administration prepares to take power in Berlin, it seems unlikely that human euro signs will welcome the latest politician to take on MrSchauble's former role. But in dramatic fashion, the spending tapsare set to be turned on. Via a swiftly staged Marchvote in the outgoing Bundestag, debtbrake" dogma was consigned to history by the chancellorelect, Friedrich Merz. The way was thus paved for groundbreaking expenditure on defence, and the overhaul of an economy being left behind in achanged, suddenly menacing world.Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Continue reading...

Unctad says many countries targeted with high tariff rates are unlikely to be a threat to US

Effects could tip one into recession and undermine other's fragile economy but prospects for rapprochement are not hopeless

PS5 digital price in UK would rise to 430 and 500 in Europe as Japanese games developer cites challenging economic environment'Sony has increased the price of its PlayStation 5 by 25% as the video game industry reels from the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs.The Japanese game developer said it had made the tough decision" to raise the price of the console's digital edition to 429.99 in the UK and 499.99 in Europe, starting from Monday. There will be no price change for the standard PS5, which comes with a disk drive. Continue reading...

Exemption, seen as a climbdown, includes laptops and chips, and is likely to help firms such as Apple and NvidiaUS stock markets were expected to stage a recovery on Monday after Donald Trump excluded imports of smartphones and laptops from his tariff regime late on Friday night.Shares in Apple and chip maker Nvidia were on course to soar after tariffs on their products imported into the US were lifted for 90 days. Continue reading...

We cannot return to the status quo before liberation day', with western economies hollowed out by free-market capitalismFundamentally wrong, brutal and paranoid. A preacher of voodoo economics, attacking the US's allies and enemies alike. Condemnation of Donald Trump in the chaos since his liberation day" has been swift.For most people the self-inflicted damage makes no sense, and rightly so. Continue reading...

As the economic and political pressure became unbearable, the US president changed course - but has the damage been done?He vowed: My policies will never change." He insisted: Sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something." He boasted: I know what I'm doing." And at 9.33am on Wednesday, he entreated: BE COOL. Everything is going to work out well."But less than four hours later, Donald Trump blinked. As the economic and political pressure became unbearable, the US president announced on social media that he would pause for 90 days higher trade tariffs for most countries, excluding China. Continue reading...

With the US disengaging from its traditional relationship with Europe, we need to abandon our red lines' and rekindle ties with our neighboursAlas: that the infantile wrecker in the White House has blinked" may be some relief; but the damage he is wreaking on his own country and the rest of us persists.Amid the chaos, conspiracy theories abound. Is Trump a useful idiot" of even darker forces? What has Putin got on a president who succeeds a long line of (mostly) admirable predecessors, who saw Russian leaders as enemies with whom they had to coexist, not as friends? Continue reading...

Is the president really ready to do battle with China after causing global chaos and undermining the US economy?

The US could breach the debt ceiling even sooner than predicted without action from RepublicansTrump backs down on tariffs, again. And it doesn't look strategic," a headline blared on Wednesday afternoon.At the end of trading, equities had recovered a portion of their losses. But plenty of damage had been done. Markets were thrown into turmoil, interest rates jumped and business activity took a hit. Beyond that, the possibility of a recession grew - and the possibility of a default by the US inched up to 6%, according to prediction markets. Continue reading...

The PM will not antagonise the unpredictable president, but it is clear to No 10 that Trump is the problem and the solution lies elsewhere

Lasting damage has been done not only to Trump's political credibility but to globalisation as a systemAt the beginning of this helter-skelter week, Downing Street was declaring globalisation not only dead but a failure. Now, only five trading days later, the autopsy is still under way but the victim may instead be economic populism, strangled by Wall Street, the citadel of globalisation. Donald Trump's so-called liberation day may in fact have been the anti-globalist's entombment day.In an effort to deny even a tactical retreat, Trump's aides insist the White House goal all along was not to weaken globalism, or even to protect the US economy with tariffs, but instead to get into a negotiation to lower tariffs around the world and to punish China. As cover stories go, it is hardly credible, partly because the tariffs were repeatedly lauded by Trump as a macroeconomic revenue-raising measure, or a means to bolster US manufacturing. Continue reading...

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S&P 500 and Dow Jones rise sharply after extraordinarily volatile week as experts warn of continued turbulenceDonald Trump insisted his trade war with much of the world was doing really well" despite mounting fears of recession and as Beijing hit back and again hiked tariffs on US exports to China.As the US president said his aggressive tariffs strategy was moving along quickly", a closely watched economic survey revealed that US consumer expectations for price growth had soared to a four-decade high. Continue reading...

This blog is now closed, you can read more on this story hereThe care minister has defended the government's cautious response to developments in global trade after the sweeping imposition of tariffs by the US administration in Washington.Stephen Kinnock said If we were to just jump in one direction or the other every time there's a new development, we would be jumping around all over the place. I don't think that that's going to be in the interest of our economy or of our national security or of our business community." Continue reading...

Experts say fears about unpredictable policy are creating crisis of confidence in US bonds once seen as risk free'Amid the global fallout from Donald Trump's liberation day" tariff announcement, it appears nowhere is safe. Crashing share prices, a sell-off in bonds and currency chaos erasing trillions of dollars of wealth in a matter of days.On Friday, the dollar fell by more than 1% relative to a basket of other currencies to reach its lowest level in three years, compounding an almost 10% slide since the start of the year. In the space of a week, it has lost about 3 cents against the pound and 4 cents against the euro. Continue reading...

Elizabeth Warren and other senators urge SEC to look into whether president engaged in market manipulationSeveral senior Senate Democrats have written a letter asking the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate whether Donald Trump violated securities laws and engaged in insider trading and market manipulation while switching course on his global tariffs.We urge the SEC to investigate whether the tariff announcements, which caused the market crash and subsequent partial recovery, enriched administration insiders and friends at the expense of the American public and whether any insiders, including the president's family, had prior knowledge of the tariff pause that they abused to make stock trades ahead of the president's announcement," said the letter, led by the Massachusetts senator and former presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren. Continue reading...

Adam Posen, former Bank of England policymaker, compared the tactics to Johnson and Nixon refusing to back downA leading US economist has likened Donald Trump's tariff battle with China to the Vietnam war, arguing that both sides will be caught in a quagmire and unable to find a face-saving exit.Adam Posen, the head of the Peterson Institute in Washington and a former Bank of England policymaker, spoke to the Guardian after penning an article for the US magazine Foreign Affairs. He said Trump's tactics had echoes of presidents Johnson and Nixon in the Vietnam war, unable to believe that they wouldn't win if they only upped the attacks, and unwilling to negotiate a real peace". Continue reading...

Spare a thought for those who are processing recent events

In a second term of fiat, flubbing and flip-flopping, Trump pursued his desire to wield a club over everyone and everythingBy imposing punitively high tariffs, Donald Trump was playing a high-stakes game of chicken with the US's trading partners - but it was Trump who chickened out and suspended his tariffs just hours after they took effect. The president couldn't ignore the worldwide economic havoc that he had caused singled-handedly - stock markets were plunging, business executives were panicking and consumers were seething.Eager to persuade manufacturers to build new plants in the US, Trump said on Monday that many of his tariffs would be permanent. But for Trump, permanent evidently meant two days. Continue reading...

February GDP rise was bigger than forecast - but impact from Donald Trump's tariff war is yet to come

Chinese leader canvasses Spain and other trading partners on how to tackle economic fallout as market turmoil continues

It would take an extraordinary deal' for any country to improve on 10% rate, says Kevin Hassett

Shoppers stayed away in March as footfall declined 5% and stores worry US trade war could have chilling effectShoppers stayed away from the UK high street in March, a situation retailers said could worsen if the economic gloom caused by Donald Trump's tariff war hits consumer confidence.Footfall fell 5% in March to extend a downturn in February that retailers said could be attributed to a recent rise in inflation and pressure on pay packets since a brief revival during the January sales. Continue reading...

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As China retaliates against tariffs, it is also making strategic manoeuvres on EU and Asia to maximise opportunitiesOn the basis of Napoleon's dictum never interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake", there was a large incentive for China to do precisely nothing as Donald Trump displayed his determination to lose friends and induce market panic. Indeed, the Chinese advocates of passivity cited a social media meme attributed to President Xi Jinping: Do nothing. Win."Initially it was tempting for China to sit back and watch the US's former allies recoil at Trump's disruptive war on globalisation and let them realise that, by comparison, China represented an oasis of stability, modernity and predictability. Continue reading...

Sarah Breedon says too early to judge impact on inflation of most significant change in trade policy in a century'

Time will tell how much damage has been inflicted on the credibility of Trump's economic policy and administrationDonald Trump's climbdown on Wednesday from the most draconian aspects of his tariff regime has uncovered a damning picture of chaos at the heart of his presidency without necessarily alleviating their most painful effects.The president's landmark liberation day" unveiling of tariffs in the White House Rose Garden on 2 April was supposed to be symbolic gateway to his promised golden age of American greatness"; instead, it triggered a cascade of global market crashes that prompted warnings of a recession, or even a 1930s-style depression, while Trump brushed it all off as temporary disruption". Continue reading...

The president's U-turn after his maverick plan threatened meltdown has echoes of the 2022 UK crisisA maverick economic policy announcement from a self-styled disruptor plunges the country's currency into freefall and puts rocket boosters behind the cost of government debt, prompting warnings of an economic nuclear winter and forcing a pretty undignified U-turn.If, on top of general concern, there has been a nagging sense of deja vu in Britain over the past 24 hours, then the ill-fated 49-day reign of Liz Truss as the UK prime minister may well be to blame. Continue reading...

The 12-month inflation rate of 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February, was largely fueled by a sharp fall in gas pricesThe price of eggs continues to soar for American consumers, rising by almost 6% in March even as overall inflation fell slightly.Breaking a record high for the third consecutive month, the average cost of a dozen large eggs hit $6.23 in March - more than double the price just 12 months earlier, according to new figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. This surpassed the previous record highs of $5.90 a dozen in February, and $4.95 in January. Continue reading...