Risk of global recession may be low but we are heading for slowdown

Although there is a cloud over economy, the silver lining is central banks are more dovish

After the synchronised global economic expansion of 2017 came the asynchronous growth of 2018, when most countries other than the US started to experience slowdowns. Worries about US inflation, the US Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, trade wars, Italian budget and debt woes, China's slowdown and emerging-market fragilities led to a sharp fall in global equity markets toward the end of the year.

The good news at the start of 2019 is that the risk of an outright global recession is low. The bad news is that we are heading into a year of synchronised global deceleration; growth will fall toward - and, in some cases, below - potential in most regions.

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