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Flurry of reports suggests former president will move swiftly after midterms, as soon as 14 November – but who will challenge him?As the midterm elections loom and Republican hopes of retaking Congress rise, it appears to be a matter of when, not if, Donald Trump will announce his third White House run.The former president has trailed another campaign ever since his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden, a contest Trump refused to concede, pursuing the lie about electoral fraud which fueled the deadly attack on Congress and his second impeachment. Continue reading...

Ron Johnson’s campaign of ‘race and fear’ is affecting Senate race that Mandela Barnes once looked to have in the bagAfter months of flinging mud, Senator Ron Johnson was finally obliged to admit that his Democratic opponent in the upper midwestern state of Wisconsin had never actually made a call to “defund the police”.But that did not stop the Trumpist senator’s re-election drive from continuing to broadcast racially charged advertisements falsely claiming that Mandela Barnes, the lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, “rationalized violence” against the police and tying him to the most controversial positions of Black Lives Matter. Continue reading...

If young pro-choice voters turn out in higher numbers than forecast models are expecting, it could provide a bounce to Democrats in key racesPolitical science-based forecasting models offer a clear prediction for the 2022 midterm elections – the results will be very bad for Democrats. Based solely on the fundamentals like the state of the economy, the type of election (ie midterm) and having an unpopular Democrat in the White House, a model by political scientists Charles Tien and Michael Lewis-Beck, generated months before 8 November, predicts a 44-seat loss for Democrats in the House and a five-seat loss for Democrats in the Senate.The forecasting models produced by FiveThirtyEight are not quite as grim about the prospects for Democrats, predicting that the party will most likely lose majority control of the House of Representatives, but have a small (and shrinking) edge in holding on to their minuscule advantage in the Senate. Unlike the political science models, FiveThirtyEight’s predictions also incorporate polling data and therefore pick up on the ground-level reality that Republicans have put forth weak candidates in key races.Laurel Elder is a professor of political science at Hartwick CollegeSteven Greene is a professor of political science at North Carolina State UniversityMary-Kate Lizotte is a professor of political science at Augusta University Continue reading...

Husband of House speaker Nancy Pelosi underwent successful surgery for a fractured skull and other injuries after assaultPaul Pelosi, the husband of House speaker Nancy Pelosi, has been released from the San Francisco hospital six days after being attacked by a man wielding a hammer in the couple’s home.The House speaker said in a statement on Thursday: “Paul remains under doctors’ care as he continues to progress on a long recovery process and convalescence. He is now home.” Continue reading...

Drop box watchers, threatening letters and harassment – voters and election officials alike report increase in occurrencesIn suburban Mesa, Arizona, people staked out an outdoor ballot drop box, taking photos and videos of voters dropping off ballots. Some wore tactical gear or camouflage. Some were visibly armed.Others videotaped voters and election workers at a ballot drop box and central tabulation office in downtown Phoenix. They set up lawn chairs and camped out to keep watch through a fence which had been added around the facility for safety after 2020 election protests. Continue reading...

Despite this urgency, climate has not been a focal point for Democrats or Republicans ahead of midterm electionsIt’s been another catastrophic climate year for the US, with tens of millions of people across the country affected by floods, fires, drought, heatwaves and tornadoes.Climate scientists are unequivocal: time is running out to transition away from fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal and instead power our cars, heat our homes and grow our food using renewable energy sources and sustainable farming practices. Most voters agree: two thirds of Americans want the federal government to do more to tackle the climate crisis, according to one recent poll. Continue reading...

The reduction, to be delivered by email, comes amid speculation the new Twitter CEO will cut as much as 50% of staff. Plus, climate on the ballot of the midterms

Africa is the continent most vulnerable to the climate crisis, but with the right support at Cop27 it can build a stronger, greener future

Tension reflects the heated battle between Democrats and Republicans for control of the House, a fight in which the state is keyIn Orange county, California, Republican congresswoman Michelle Steel is running ads using doctored images to depict her Democratic opponent Jay Chen as sympathetic to communist China. In Los Angeles, incumbent Democratic representative Jimmy Gomez has sent out flyers accusing his progressive challenger David Kim of “campaigning with QAnon support”.In several congressional districts in the Golden state, close races in recent weeks have become vitriolic. Continue reading...

Philadelphia Union and LAFC meet on Saturday for the championship and are led by two of the best young coaches in the leagueNot since 2003 has MLS Cup been contested between two No 1 seeds. The Major League Soccer playoffs almost always produce shocks, but Saturday’s showpiece between Los Angeles FC and the Philadelphia Union was predicted by many to materialise. If LAFC have been the unstoppable force in 2022, Philly have been the immovable object. In terms of quality, the 2022 MLS Cup final has the potential to be the best ever.Steve Cherundolo and Jim Curtin are probably the best two head coaches in MLS too. LAFC and Philly will have plenty of star power to showcase down the road from Hollywood this weekend, but the men on the touchline deserve top billing – they are the reason their teams have made it this far. Continue reading...

Parties once focused on TV but now a billion-dollar effort embraces the highly targeted and almost rule-free digital worldThe advert is in grainy black and white, with an edgy horror movie soundtrack. As gunfights erupt in the streets, the narrator announces in a gravelly bass voice that John Fetterman, Democratic candidate for a US Senate seat in Pennsylvania, “has a love affair with criminals”.Fetterman has voted “over and over to release the state’s most violent criminals, including murderers”, the narrator says. If elected, he would “keep the drugs flowing, the killers killing, and the children dying”. Continue reading...

The Vermont senator is holding nine rallies across five battleground states, hoping to deliver a closing argument to young and working-class voters• ‘They haven’t tried’: Bernie Sanders criticizes Democrats’ economic messagingSan Marcos’s Sewell Park on Texas State University’s campus, was packed with people on Saturday. Harry Styles’s As It Was’ and Dua Lipa’s Levitating provided the soundtrack to a mostly young crowd, who gathered around the stage and eagerly awaited its headliner: Senator Bernie Sanders.With just days left before polls close and Republicans’ midterm fortunes seemingly on the rise, Sanders is hitting the campaign trail, holding nine rallies across five battleground states in the week and a half leading up to election day. Continue reading...

Guardian writers lay down what’s on the line and what a Republican victory could mean for the future of the countryAmerica is hurtling towards the first nationwide test of its democracy since Donald Trump left the White House and his supporters mounted a deadly insurrection at the US Capitol. The midterm elections on Tuesday will decide control of Congress as well as 36 state governorships – but will also be a referendum on Joe Biden’s presidency, and fire the starting gun for the race to the White House in 2024.Here’s why the midterms matter for some of the biggest issues facing the US – and the world: Continue reading...

In a Guardian interview, the Vermont senator urges people to turn out for next week’s ‘consequential’ midterm electionsBernie Sanders has criticized Democrats for not doing enough to motivate voters around the economic issues that have an impact on everyday life, as he warned next week’s midterm elections are the most “consequential” in modern American history.In an interview with the Guardian in Texas, the leftwing Vermont senator said: “Obviously, everybody should be turning out for what is the most consequential midterm election in the modern history of this country. Democracy is on the ballot. Women’s right to control their own bodies is on the ballot. Climate change is on the ballot, so everybody should come out.” Continue reading...

The digital platform is about more than just news and politics. It’s also a place for culture, creativity and communityAfter a seven-month saga, and a visit to Twitter HQ carrying a bathroom sink, Elon Musk now owns Twitter.In April, digital rights experts warned of the dangers of online spaces being subject to the whims of billionaires. Many have expressed concern that under Musk’s leadership, online safety, public debate and democratic participation on Twitter may falter, while there is fear that misinformation and hate speech will rise. Continue reading...

Attempts to protect students in battleground Wisconsin led to a culture-war clash that turned neighbor against neighborThe Wempner family felt like prisoners as they sat in their home in June.The kindling for what was shaping up to be their small town’s political eruption started two years ago with a documented act of racism directed at their family. Continue reading...

Specific details weren’t released but Jersey City mayor said police have been posted at city’s seven synagoguesThe FBI said on Thursday it had received credible information about a “broad” threat to synagogues in New Jersey.The FBI’s Newark office released a statement urging synagogues to “take all security precautions to protect your community and facility”. Continue reading...

Newest member of US supreme court seems to reject idea that affirmative action in university admissions is unconstitutionalThe newest US supreme court justice and the bench’s first Black woman, Ketanji Brown Jackson, made a clarion call in favor of keeping race as one of many factors in US higher education admissions, as America’s highest court heard oral arguments on the issue of affirmative action.The court is hearing two back-to-back cases brought against the University of North Carolina (UNC) and Harvard University by a conservative activist group, Students for Fair Admissions, but has not ruled. Continue reading...

Case alleges the Moab agency was negligent despite a bystander reporting conflict between the woman and her boyfriendFamily members of a 22-year-old woman whose boyfriend admitted to killing her last year have filed a wrongful death suit against the Moab police department, claiming their negligence led to her death weeks later.The lawsuit filed on Thursday is the latest development in the high-profile case around Gabby Petito’s death. What began as a missing person case last summer rode a wave of true crime obsession to become a social media sensation, drawing amateur online sleuthers and the kind of worldwide attention that can help authorities locate missing people. Continue reading...

Move will restrict his company’s ability to freely make deals, sell assets and change its corporate structureA Manhattan judge said Thursday that he would appoint an independent monitor to oversee Donald Trump’s real estate empire.The move will restrict his company’s ability to freely make deals, sell assets and change its corporate structure. Continue reading...

The former president claims civil suit mounted by Letitia James could cause ‘great harm’ to his company and reputationDonald Trump has sued the attorney general of New York state, Letitia James, over what he claims is a “relentless, pernicious, public, and unapologetic crusade” against him, in the shape of her recent civil lawsuit against the former president and three of his adult children, Donald Jr, Ivanka and Eric.Filed on Wednesday in a circuit court in Florida, the lawsuit says James’s suit, which she announced in a dramatic press conference in September, will cause “great harm” to the company, brand and reputation of the thrice-married, oft-sued, twice-impeached and extensively legally imperiled former president. Continue reading...

Lloyd Austin makes remark while Kim Jong-un’s government in Pyongyang has in recent days mounted a number of missile testsThe US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, said on Thursday any nuclear attack on the US or its allies by North Korea would “result in the end of the Kim regime”.Kim Jong-un’s government in Pyongyang has in recent days mounted a number of missile tests. The South Korean military said a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday may have ended in failure. Japan called the launch “outrageous and absolutely intolerable”. Continue reading...

Scientists say the world’s largest volcano could erupt and officials are telling residents to be preparedThe ground is shaking and swelling at Mauna Loa, the legendary volcano on the Big Island of Hawaii and the largest active volcano in the world.Scientists say the shaking indicates it could erupt, though they don’t expect that to happen right away. Regardless, officials on the island are telling residents to be prepared. Continue reading...

Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate has said he supports legislation that would enshrine same-sex marriage in federal lawMehmet Oz, the Republican nominee for the Pennsylvania Senate seat who says he is in favour of same-sex marriage, hosted a campaign event on Wednesday at a venue that bans same-sex marriages.Oz, who has campaigned on supporting legislation that would enshrine same-sex marriage in federal law, held a campaign event at the Stone Gables Estate, a venue that only holds weddings between a man and a woman, reported the Washington Post. Continue reading...

Republican, Democrat or neither – we’d like to speak to people in the US ahead of Tuesday’s midterm electionsAmericans will go to the polls next week to cast their votes in the US midterm elections.The midterms on 8 November will be voters’ first opportunity to deliver a national verdict on Joe Biden’s presidency, though his name will not be on the ballot. The constitution specifies every member of the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate run for office halfway between presidential elections. Continue reading...

There is a basis for a strong connection between Lula and Biden, forged in the fire of the far-right extremism they both have faced and defeated at the polls.In his victory speech last night, former president – and now president-elect –Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva asserted that the world missed Brazil as it sunk to a state of unprecedented international isolation in recent years. Lula, an impassioned orator used to speaking extemporaneously, calmly read prepared remarks that struck notes of harmony, healing and restoration. “It is time to put down the arms we never should have picked up,” he said at one point as his wife and future firstlady Rosângela da Silva became visibly emotional at his side. “Brazil is back,” Lula insisted, promising to “work tirelessly for a Brazil where love prevails over hate, truth over lies, and hope is bigger than fear”.Lula’s unlikely ascent to another term in office in Latin America’s largest nation represents renewed opportunities for his country. Indeed, given the host of problems Brazil faces in the years to come, including reining in deforestation, navigating the decline of US hegemony in the hemisphere, and reversing an alarming slide into deindustrialization, to cite just a few, it is hard to imagine someone better equipped than Lula to turn the page from Jair Bolsonaro, the outgoing far-right extremist who has governed the country since 2019.Andre Pagliarini is an assistant professor of history at Hampden-Sydney College in Virginia. He is working on a book about the politics of nationalism in modern Brazilian history Continue reading...

Strong dollar and end of Covid restrictions lead to huge boom in travel from US to UK, Virgin and Delta sayDelta Air Lines has hailed “unprecedented” demand for transatlantic travel to the UK, while its co-owner of Virgin Atlantic, Sir Richard Branson, warned he would be “really pissed off” if Heathrow imposed further restrictions on capacity at Christmas.The strong dollar and the end of Covid restrictions will fuel inbound travel for three years but capacity at Britain’s biggest airport remains a concern, according to Virgin’s owners. Continue reading...

Aipac is spending millions to oppose Democrat who would be Pennsylvania’s first Black female member of CongressMore than 240 Jewish American voters in Pittsburgh have signed a letter denouncing the US’s largest pro-Israel group for backing extremist Republican election candidates while spending millions of dollars to oppose a Democrat who would be Pennsylvania’s first Black female member of Congress.The letter condemned the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) for its attempts to defeat Summer Lee, a candidate for the district that includes Pittsburgh, after failing to block her during the Democratic primaries earlier this year because of her criticisms of Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians. Continue reading...

In several states Republican candidates who dispute the 2020 election results are running for positions that would give them control over electionsThere are several races on the ballot this fall that will have profound consequences for American democracy. In several states, Republican candidates who doubt the 2020 election results, or in some cases actively worked to overturn them, are running for positions in which they would have tremendous influence over how votes are cast and counted. If these candidates win, there is deep concern they could use their offices to spread baseless information about election fraud and try to prevent the rightful winners of elections from being seated.In total, 291 Republicans – a majority of the party’s nominees this cycle, have questioned the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, according to a Washington Post tally. Continue reading...

Republican former NFL star rejects criticism after two-time president questioned his fitness for US Senate seat in GeorgiaHitting back after Barack Obama questioned his fitness for a US Senate seat, Herschel Walker said: “Put my résumé against his résumé.”Obama, 61, was a civil rights attorney and community organiser in Chicago, an Illinois state politician, a US senator from 2005 to 2008, then 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. Continue reading...

Victor Montagliani and Peter Montopoli were at Canada Soccer when the organization failed to tell players the real reason why now-convicted sex offender Bob Birada left in 2008Fifa has backed senior officials within its organization after a failure to tell players and the public the real reason why now-convicted sex offender and former national team coach Bob Birada left Canada Soccer in 2008.The officials – Victor Montagliani, the president of Concacaf and a Fifa vice-president, and Peter Montopoli, the chief operating officer for Canada for the 2026 World Cup – were senior Canada Soccer officials with central roles in Birarda’s exit from his job as Canada’s U-20 women’s national team coach after he was found to have acted inappropriately with his own players. Continue reading...

President asks voters to reject election-denying candidates in midterms to ‘preserve democracy’. Plus, can Twitter survive Elon Musk?Good morning.Joe Biden has issued a rallying cry for the preservation of democracy and a dark warning that America could face political violence as it barrels toward next week’s midterm elections.What did he say? Trump’s false claims about a stolen election have “fueled the dangerous rise of political violence and voter intimidation over the past two years,” Biden said. “We’re facing a defining moment. We must with one overwhelming, unified voice speak, as a country, and say there’s no place for voter intimidation or political violence in America.”What did Powell say? “I’m pleased that we have moved as fast as we have. I don’t think we’ve overtightened,” he said. The Fed would, at some point, slow the pace of rate rises, he added, but it was “very premature to think about pausing”. Continue reading...

Broaching the subject of peace negotiations invites accusations of helping Putin, as congressional progressives recently learned the hard way, but that’s misguidedThe war in Ukraine shows no sign of abating, let alone ending. Unable to make headway on the battlefield, Russia has been bombarding Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure in hopes of freezing Ukrainians into submission as winter looms. The Ukrainians continue to press their offensive against Russian troops, many ill-trained and poorly motivated, to gain as much territory as possible before the cold sets in.The United States continues to provide economic aid and armaments to Kyiv. Another $275m in weapons and ammunition was pledged on 27 October, taking total US financial, military and humanitarian aid to more than $50bn since January. Additional assistance is certain. Continue reading...

Parenthood, criminality or death: these are now the all-too-expensive options for many women in the wake of the Dobbs decisionBeing a parent is expensive. Being a criminal is also expensive, whether you lose economic opportunities to avoid apprehension or spend money on your defense if apprehended or go to prison and lose everything and, marked as a felon, emerge unemployable. Abortion is an economic issue, because when it’s not legal, those are the two remaining options, leaving out being dead, which you could argue is either very expensive or absolutely beyond the realms of money and price. And being dead is also on the table because women have all too often died from lack of access to reproductive healthcare, including abortions (to say nothing of being unable to leave an abuser, to whom pregnancy and children can bind you more tightly). They are facing more of that now.Having no options but to be dead, criminal or a parent is not a sane or moral argument for parenthood, and it’s also pretty different than having certain inalienable rights, including life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Also, now that abortion is unavailable under almost all circumstances in Texas and other states, it’s an economic justice issue in that those with the financial capacity to take time off, travel in search of care and pay for it out of pocket are not affected the way those who cannot do so are. And those who can afford to get an abortion under these circumstances are also those who can afford to defend themselves against possible criminal charges. Continue reading...

Joe Biden has warned Americans against condoning 'political violence' as the midterm elections approach, raising the alarm about the threats to US democracy. 'We don't settle our differences in America with a riot, a mob or a bullet, or a hammer. We settle them peaceably at the ballot box,' the president said during a prime time address on Wednesday. 'It's within our power, each and every one of us to preserve our democracy. And I believe we will,' he added.Biden's speech came after an attack on House speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, 82-year-old Paul Pelosi, at their home.

On the midterm ballot is Measure O, which would direct the city manager to establish a minimum number of shelter spacesSitting on the edge of a collection of about 60 tents pitched alongside the American River, Twana James is doing her best to comfort a friend at the end of her wits.All day, the woman says, she had been waiting for a caseworker from a Sacramento non-profit to come pick her up and put her on a list for housing. “You wait all day for somebody to come and get you and they don’t come,” she cries in despair. Continue reading...

The former local news anchor – and former Democrat – is in a neck-and-neck race for governor in key swing state of ArizonaLocal news anchor Kari Lake refused to announce that Joe Biden had won Arizona on election night two years ago. Now, she’s the telegenic new face of Maga Republicanism, poised to possibly become the state’s next governor.With early voting underway, polls show Lake in a dead heat with her opponent Katie Hobbs, Arizona’s Democratic secretary of state. The contest will test the strength of Donald Trump’s enduring influence on the Republican party and its supporters. And the entire enterprise of free elections in Arizona hangs in the balance. Continue reading...

Critics say the article is flawed. But that shouldn’t discredit the lab leak theoryI must confess that when a ProPublica-Vanity Fair collaboration detailing new revelations from a Senate Intelligence Committee investigation pointing toward a lab leak origin of the Covid-19 pandemic crossed my social media radar, I retweeted it after a brief skim.After all, I already believed that many in the press had unfairly dismissed the lab leak theory in 2020. Indeed, before Covid was on the radar at all I already believed that lab leaks were an underrated threat to humanity and that the style of research that seeks to uncover new dangerous viruses in the wild or engineer them in labs is risky and should be halted. So I was sufficiently excited about the new blockbuster revelations found in Toy Reid’s translations of previously unknown official Chinese documents that I didn’t kick the tires on the piece rigorously. Which is too bad because as Max Tani details in Semafor, other Chinese speakers have raised grave questions about the veracity of the translations in the ProPublica story which is now reportedly being reviewed with the assistance of additional independent Mandarin translators. That’s embarrassing for me and the whole affair is embarrassing to lab leak proponents generally.Matthew Yglesias is a political commentator. He runs the SlowBoring substack Continue reading...

The Devon coastline reveals that Earth was in a near-lifeless state for up to five million years after the last extinction eventBudleigh Salterton, on the south coast of Devon, sits above the most frightening cliffs on Earth. They are not particularly high. Though you don’t want to stand beneath them, they are not especially prone to collapse. The horror takes another form. It is contained in the story they tell. For they capture the moment at which life on Earth almost came to an end.The sediments preserved in these cliffs were laid down in the early Triassic period, just after the greatest mass extinction in the history of multicellular life that brought the Permian period to an end 252m years ago. Around 90% of species died, and fish and four-footed animals were more or less exterminated between 30 degrees north of the equator and 40 degrees south.George Monbiot is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

In an extract from his new book, Timothy Bella charts the Hall of Famer’s eventful entry into the NBA in one of the greatest draft classes of all timeFor a 48-hour period in 1984, Charles engaged in an eating binge in hopes of dissuading the Philadelphia 76ers from selecting him in the draft. He began with two Denny’s Grand Slam breakfasts – six pancakes and bacon totaling around 1,660 calories, and a vanilla milkshake to wash it down. The lunch offerings, which have varied in the decades’ worth of repeat tellings, included either Kentucky Fried Chicken, mashed potatoes, and coleslaw; half of the menu at Red Lobster; two McDonald’s fish fillets, a large fries, and a Diet Coke; or two Texas-sized barbecue sandwiches. The dinner menu at a steakhouse included a T-bone, baked potato, and, of course, three desserts.Charles repeated it all the next day, gorging, as he described, “everything I could get to my face, everything that wasn’t nailed down or poison.” During a night of heavy drinking with his agent, the sight of Charles crushing beers might have made people think that Prohibition was about to be reinstated, he said. Continue reading...

The rival parties have outspent the 2020 presidential election on ads addressing abortion, crime and the economyAs the US midterm elections loom, Republicans and Democrats have spent almost $10bn (£8.6bn) so far on ads. It’s a staggering figure, one that exceeds even the spending on the 2020 presidential election, and is almost triple the amount spent during the last midterms.Both parties – and their dark money backers – have splashed exorbitant amounts on TV, digital and print advertising, but their focus has been very different. Continue reading...

Knight’s backing for Christine Drazan clashes with the company’s progressive image. Could it tip the governor’s race?If Republicans win the race for Oregon governor, it will be down to one man: Phil Knight.Knight, of course, is the 84-year-old co-founder and chair emeritus of Nike, the house that Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods built. And in this race to govern Oregon, a bastion of west coast liberalism, Knight has thrown full support behind the Republican Christine Drazan, an anti-abortion, tough-on-crime former lobbyist pushing “election integrity”. In a rare interview with the New York Times, Knight made his motive clear: Oregon’s next governor can be anyone but the Democratic nominee, Tina Kotek. Continue reading...