By the Numbers: Comparing Jagr to Gretzky, Messier, Howe
With an assist Thursday, Florida Panthers forward Jaromir Jagr reached another incredible milestone, tying Gordie Howe for third on the NHL's all-time scoring list with 1,850 career points.
1. Wayne Gretzky - 2,857
- NHL (@NHL) March 4, 2016
2. Mark Messier - 1,887
3. Jaromir Jagr - 1,850
3. Gordie Howe - 1,850https://t.co/aDjUFZBRT2
Jagr reached point No. 1,850 in fewer games than both Howe and Messier - No. 2 all-time - but like both, reached the milestone past age 40. The No. 1 player is a completely different story - as Wayne Gretzky caught Mr. Hockey at age 28 in 1989.
Reaching 1,850 points| Player | Age | Games | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gretzky | 28 | 780 | 11 |
| Jagr | 44 | 1611 | 22 |
| Messier | 42 | 1691 | 25 |
| Howe | 51 | 1767 | 26 |
While Gretzky, in most cases, remains an outlier - the longevity of the other three players' careers is one of the biggest factors in their scoring success. Despite all having long careers, the oldest all four players finished an NHL season at the same age was at 36. Although Gretzky clearly outpaced the others during his 20s, it's striking how all four produced at a similar pace later in their careers.
Age 36 season| Player | Year | GP | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howe | 1963-64 | 69 | 26 | 47 | 73 |
| Gretzky | 1996-97 | 82 | 25 | 72 | 97 |
| Messier | 1996-97 | 71 | 36 | 48 | 84 |
| Jagr | 2007-08 | 82 | 24 | 46 | 71 |
Howe may be most famous for playing at an advanced age, retiring at age 51, but that came after a nine-year absence from the NHL. He retired from the Detroit Red Wings in 1971, but signed in the WHA in 1973, and went on to rack up 508 points over six seasons while playing with sons Mark and Marty.
Most Goals After Turning 44 - NHL History
- John Buccigross (@Buccigross) March 3, 2016
Gordie Howe 15
Chris Chelios 5
Jaromir Jagr 4
Doug Harvey 1
It's hard to say how many more points a healthy Howe would've added in another nine seasons, but you can ask a similar question about Jagr. He missed prime-production years due to three separate lockouts during his career, and took a three-year stint in the KHL from 2008 to 2011.
Taking retirement seasons out of the equation, it's hard to equate the impact of the production lost by NHL games missed due to work stoppages and/or playing in rival leagues for all four legendary forwards.
| Player | Potential Games Missed |
|---|---|
| Howe | 478 (WHA -1973-79) |
| Jagr | 396 (KHL - 2008-11; Lockouts - 1994/2004-05/2012) |
| Messier | 114* (WHA - 1978-79; Lockout - 1994) |
| Gretzky | 114 (WHA - 1978-79; Lockout - 1994) |
* - Messier announced retirement following 2004-05 lockout, but was believed to be retiring after 2003-04 season.
But enough about the past, the question now becomes how high Jagr's totals can climb. The Czech Republic native has repeatedly stated he doesn't want to retire, and even if he's only half as productive next season, he would still likely catch Messier's mark of 1,887 points.
Projections based on points per game| Season | PPG | Proj. Pts | Career Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | .787 | 62 | 1864 |
| 2016-17 | .394 | 32 | 1896 |
With or without a sharp decline, becoming just the second player to reach the 1,900-point mark seems incredibly realistic for the winger, barring injury. If Howe could rack up multiple, 100-point seasons in the WHA in his late 40s, would a few more 50-point campaigns out of Jagr be that far-fetched?
We'll have to wait and see.
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