Lib Dems shouldn't count on Remain votes - the data looks bleak

Conventional wisdom suggests the Tories could bleed Remain votes to the Lib Dems. Our detailed data analysis suggests this idea could be very wrong indeed

This post was written in collaboration with Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus.

The Thames Valley constituency I live in voted for Remain in the EU Referendum, which is a little bit awkward because our MP is Theresa May. Surrounded by miles of natural beauty, Maidenhead is a concrete wart on the landscape - fashionable in its day, but now something of an embarrassment.