DHS Boss Drums Up Fear Using The FBI's Useless Terrorism Investigation Stats

Want to know how much of a threat terrorism poses to the United States? Just ask an agency whose relevance and budget depends on projecting the appearance of a constant threat. Here's John Kelly, the new head of the DHS:

The threat to our nation and our American way of life has not diminished. In fact, the threat has metastasized and decentralized, and the risk is as threatening today as it was that September morning almost 16 years ago.

As I speak these words the FBI has open terrorism investigations in all 50 states, and since 2013, there have been 37 ISIS-linked plots to attack our country.

The problem with swearing on a stack of FBI statements is these assertions are completely meaningless. The FBI's a well-oiled terrorist-crafting machine at this point, so it can come up with whatever number of ISIS-linked plots is needed to further the agenda of multiple government agencies.

As for "open terrorism investigations," it would be much more helpful if the FBI didn't term nearly everything it does an "investigation," even when there's nothing worth investigating. As we've covered here before, there are a few different types of investigations the FBI engages in, starting with something that looks a whole lot like an investigation (in terms of information the FBI can obtain), but really isn't. These "investigations" are called assessments, and it takes almost nothing at all to get one of these underway. Emily Hockett and Michael German of Just Security explain how the guidelines for assessments changed radically after the passage of the FISA Amendments Act in 2008.

The most drastic change came in 2008 with a set of guidelines issued by then-Attorney General Michael Mukasey, who today is an ally of President Trump. The 2008 Guidelines created a new type of investigation called an "assessment." Assessments permit physical surveillance, database searches, interviews, racial and ethnic mapping, and the recruitment and tasking of informants without any factual or criminal predicate, that is, without any objective basis to suspect the target of the investigation has violated any law, or is likely to in the future.

Because Kelly's statement doesn't clearly define what sort of investigations the FBI is engaged in, it's quite possible the FBI only has assessments underway in several states. Rather than portray the nation as a hotbed of potential terrorism, the presence of assessments indicates nothing at all. That the FBI can engage in surveillance without "any factual or criminal predicate" is disturbing enough. Misrepresenting the depth of these investigations to further a narrative of fear is carelessness at best. It's deeply dishonest at worst.

But even if we are to take the DHS head's word at face value -- that the FBI actually has real investigations opened in all 50 states, the word "investigation" still doesn't mean much. It should never be assumed an investigation is actually an indicator of terrorist activity. There are also "preliminary investigations" -- a step above assessments but below the FBI's standard for an actual investigation. These, too, can be based on almost nothing.

Preliminary investigations require only "information or an allegation," and contrary to Comey's testimony, the allegation does not need to be "credible." A 2010 Inspector General report found the FBI opened preliminary investigations on political advocacy organizations based on mere speculation that the subjects might commit a crime in the future, and the agents themselves often made the required "allegations."

Comey's statement -- the one cited by John Kelly -- claimed all FBI investigations need "a credible allegation of wrongdoing or reasonable basis"" This obviously isn't true. Using the presence of FBI investigations to support claims of a persistent terrorist threat gives the FBI far too much credit.

The extremely low bar the FBI must avoid tripping over on its way to unwarranted (in both senses of the word) surveillance gives it plenty of busywork to keep agents and analysts busy. It does not, however, make the United States any safer.

From 2009 to 2011, the first two years the Mukasey guidelines were in place, the FBI opened over 82,325 assessments, of which only 3,315 found information that warranted opening preliminary or full investigations.

Given the preliminary investigation hurdle doesn't rise above shin-high, assessments seem to be a convenient excuse for surveilling Americans and adding this to the FBI's overstuffed databases. FBI terrorism investigations are a completely useless metric for gauging the domestic terrorism threat. But, hey, whatever sells more government power.