Wall Street Predicts Apathetic Regulators And Limited Competition Will Let Comcast Double Broadband Prices

Wall Street predicts that cable giants like Comcast will soon be cashing in on the one-two punch of rubber stamp regulators and an ongoing lack of competition in the broadband space. Under the Obama administration, regulators turned a blind eye to the fact that cable giants like Comcast were taking advantage of a lack of competition to impose arbitrary and unnecessary usage caps and overage fees. Under the Trump administration that apathy has ballooned ten fold, with the looming assault on net neutrality only green lighting Comcast's ability to use those fees to raise rates and hamstring streaming competitors.

Wall Street analysts obviously adore this new paradigm of regulatory apathy to the sector's competition woes, and predict cable providers are about to enter a very lucrative period of profit taking. Said enthusiasm is usually masked by the use of rhetoric that obfuscates the real consumer and market harms such cheer leading assists. For example, a research note sent to investors this week by New Street Research analyst Jonathan Chaplin indicates that competitive "headwinds" will soon waver, allowing Comcast to double the amount it currently charges for broadband:

"We have argued that broadband is underpriced, given that pricing has barely increased over the past decade while broadband utility has exploded," New Street said. "Our analysis suggested a 'utility-adjusted' ARPU target of ~$90. Comcast recently increased standalone broadband to $90 (including modem), paving the way for faster ARPU growth as the mix shifts in favor of broadband-only households. Charter will likely follow, once they are through the integration of Time Warner Cable."

New Street added that "broadband pricing could double from current levels."

How exciting. Of course while Chaplin tries to argue that broadband pricing has "barely increased" over the last decade, it's important to understand he's talking about the advertised price. Comcast has provided a master class in the tactic of using hidden, sneaky, and/or entirely bogus fees to covertly jack up the cost of service post sale, something both Comcast and Charter are facing numerous lawsuits for. Then there's Comcast usage caps and overage fees -- which is Comcast's charming way of abusing limited competition to raise rates -- while pretending that isn't actually happening.

That brings us to the other major portion of Chaplin's note, which goes on to predict that Comcast should be fairly well insulated from cord cutting. How? Thanks, in part, to Comcast's growing monopoly over broadband and the higher prices that allows:

"The traditional pay-TV market saw the worst loss of subs on record this quarter," the investor note said. "We don't expect this trend to change anytime soon; however, we think cable should be somewhat insulated because: 1) they should take share in a declining market, helped by the pull-through effect from growing share in broadband; 2) we don't think cable makes much money in pay-TV. In fact, the [free cash flow] lost from subs dropping pay-TV is generally recovered through higher HSD pricing."

As we've noted previously, Comcast is somewhat insulated from cord cutting because of a lack of competition in the broadband space. In countless markets nationwide, telcos have simply refused to upgrade aging DSL lines at any scale. These telcos have effectively ceded control of the residential broadband market to local cable competitors as they focus on other ventures (largely either expanding further into business broadband or clumsily slinging video ads to Millennials in a quest to be the next Facebook or Google). As a result, we're quietly and slowly seeing bigger cable broadband monopolies than ever in many markets.

As these frustrated DSL users flee to cable just to get current-generation speeds (which is happening faster than ever), they're signing up for broadband and TV bundles that are notably cheaper than TV alone. That doesn't mean these users necessarily wanted cable TV (in many instances the cable box sits dusty in a closet), but they're still paying all the same. Meanwhile, usage caps and overage fees help protect cable TV revenues by making it more expensive than ever to flock to streaming video competitors, and with the looming death of net neutrality, these companies can also exempt their own streaming services while penalizing competitors.

This is, again, something we've built thanks in large part to the bipartisan apathy toward actually doing anything to fix the broadband market. Because actually doing so would upset deep-pocketed campaign contributors, we're apparently content in paying empty lip service to things like "bridging the digital divide," while despised industry giants like Comcast cash in on our collective Congressional and regulatory dysfunction. Enjoy your higher Comcast bill, everyone.