Leafs' top line success will prove to be more sustainable than Kings'
Monday's matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Los Angeles Kings represents not only a meeting between two of the NHL's best teams, but two of the league's most effective lines thus far this season.
LA's trio of Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, and Alex Iafallo have been on the ice for 11 goals for (most in NHL) at five-on-five, and only two against. On the other hand, Toronto's unit of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Zach Hyman have been on the ice for six goals for (sixth in NHL), but zero against. These two lines rank first and second in Plus-Minus, per Corsica.
Despite the success of the Kings' top line, the underlying numbers suggest that they're in for some regression, whereas the Leafs' top line might just be hitting their stride.
Even though the Kings' top line has the advantage when it comes to shot quantity, ranking fifth in Corsi For percentage with a mark of 58.96 (among lines that have played at least 50 minutes at five-on-five together), compared to Toronto's 57.76, Toronto's shots have been of higher quality.
Here's a look at where Toronto's shots have come from with Matthews on the ice:
With Nylander on the ice:
With Hyman on the ice:
You'll notice how the red area (where the majority of shots are coming from) takes up the slot when Matthews, Nylander, and Hyman are on the ice.
For comparison, here's where LA's shots have come from while Kopitar is on the ice:
With Brown on the ice:
With Iafallo on the ice:
You'll notice a trend with the graph of the Kings' top line: a bulk of their shots are coming from the outside, which means that over the course of a season, less of these shots will find the back of the net.
As expected, many goals produced by LA's top line have involved a bit of luck. Shots from this angle by Brown won't be going in all season:
In fact, among lines that have played at least 50 minutes together at five-on-five, Kopitar, Brown, and Iafallo rank eighth in expected goals for. Matthews, Nylander, and Hyman rank first in this category, per Corsica.
This isn't to say Kopitar and Brown's bounce-back season can't continue, it's just that their path to sustainability as the league's most effective line (which they currently are), is much more foggy compared to Toronto's young trio vying for status as the best line in the league.
It's clear the Leafs' top line has the advantage, and that could be evident in Monday's meeting between the two sides.
(Graphs courtesy hockeyviz.com)
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