NFL underdogs: Week 8 pointspread picks and predictions
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On a list of the most frightening things in the NFL, being a rookie quarterback headed into Seattle's CenturyLink Field is near the top.
Outside of a ferocious Seahawks defense with a secondary that boasts the chilling moniker "The Legion of Boom", that suffocating stadium is enough to make even veteran passers pee a little. The crowd noise rivals a jet engine in terms of decibel levels and that's thrown on top of the usual howling winds and rains found in the Pacific Northwest at this time of year.
So, just in time for Halloween, the Houston Texans are 6-point underdogs making their way to the Emerald City with first-year QB Deshaun Watson in tow. Any other rookie quarterback would be shaking in their shoulder pads like they just heard the story of Jason Voorhees while sitting around the fire at Camp Crystal Lake. But not Deshaun.
As I've mentioned before in this column, Watson feels no fear. He's proven his mettle with two trips to the National Championship in college (both against scary-good Alabama squads), and by barnstorming Foxborough and nearly knocking off the Patriots in Week 3 - just his second start as a pro.
Since then, Watson has not only thrust himself to the top of the Rookie of the Year odds but is also in the conversation for NFL MVP. In the last three games, he's totaled 12 touchdowns, 769 passing yards (plus 78 rushing yards and a touchdown), completed 62 percent of his passes (58-for-94), and has only thrown two interceptions. That doesn't sound like a quarterback playing scared.
And maybe he shouldn't be, considering the Seahawks aren't as scary as they once were. Seattle comes into Week 8 with a 4-2 record, backed behind a defense allowing 15.7 points per game - the lowest in the NFL. But looking closer at those numbers, the Seahawks haven't exactly faced the most explosive competition.
They've taken on the likes of the 49ers (25th in points), Colts (28th in points), and Giants (30th in points), who were decimated by injuries on offense last week. The Seahawks also gave up 33 points in a loss to an inconsistent Titans attack in Week 3. Yes, they've slowed down the Packers and Rams, but these defensive numbers are as inflated as the 15-foot tall Stay Puft Marshmallow Man my wife wouldn't let me buy for Halloween.
And on top of that, those defensive efforts have almost gone to waste considering how listless the Seattle offense has been, averaging only 22.3 points through six games. Hell, the Rams turned the ball over six times in Week 5 and the Seahawks mustered just 16 points. Much like their defensive numbers, the offensive stats are a bit misleading, with garbage time points in wins over the Colts and Giants making those games look much less competitive than they were.
Houston had two weeks to ready for this road game after enjoying a bye in Week 7. That not only gave Watson plenty of time to prep for the Seahawks but also allowed the Texans to tinker on defense and plug some holes left by big-name injuries. Head coach Bill O'Brien - a student of the Belichick coaching tree - is 3-0 SU and ATS off a bye in his time with the Texans.
Given all that, Seattle backers should kind of be a little" well" scared to give the six points.
Pick: Texans +6
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 46)
The Panthers must be careful that an embarrassing 17-3 loss at Chicago last Sunday doesn't manifest itself into something bigger. Carolina is pretty much in must-win mode in Tampa Bay this weekend, with the NFC South still very much up for grabs.
The Buccaneers have lost three in a row and four of their last five, and somehow still opened as big as -3.5 for this game. Tampa Bay is terribly one dimensional and has trouble moving the chains without the big play. It averages 12.2 yards per completion (tied for tops in the NFL) but completes only 63 percent of its passes - 57.39 percent over three home games.
The Panthers, for all their foibles, don't give up those home runs. Carolina has limited opponents to only 9.2 yards per completion (fourth lowest in the NFL) and ranks fourth against the pass, giving up 180.7 gains through the air per outing.
The Panthers' pass rush is also among the league's elite, with 24 sacks sitting tied for second most. Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston is still nursing a bum shoulder and has been sacked five times over the last three games. In his last four run-ins with Carolina, Winston has been on the receiving end of a sack nine times.
Pick: Panthers +2.5
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-3, 45.5)
When CG Technology sportsbooks in Las Vegas released their lookahead lines for every NFL game Weeks 1 through 16 back in April, the Raiders were 1.5-point road favorites heading to Buffalo in Week 8. Almost half a season has happened since then, but I still feel Oakland is the better team. Or at least a better team than its 3-4 record would indicate.
A lot of things clicked for the Silver and Black in their Thursday night win over the Chiefs. Butter-fingered receiver Amari Cooper had two touchdowns and 210 yards on 11 catches. Tight end Jared Cook emerged as a reliable target, and Derek Carr started looking downfield after running an agonizingly-conservative offense through the first six games.
Buffalo's defense has softened over the last two games and injuries to the secondary - which is already a sore spot on the depth chart - could be the crack in the dam. Corner E.J. Gaines and safety Jordan Poyer are both listed as day-to-day heading into Week 8. And that was after the Bills got torched by the Bucs for 384 yards and three touchdowns through the air.
With a mini bye week following the Thursday game, I have a feeling the Raiders' resurgence has begun.
Pick: Raiders +3
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 9-11-1 ATS
Jason Logan is the senior managing editor for Covers.com. You can tell him how much his NFL underdog picks suck on Twitter @CoversJlo.
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