Pardoning Manafort and firing Mueller won't help Trump

Trump is probably tempted to pardon everyone that Mueller indicts. But Mueller has set things up so that it won't help if he does. It also won't help if he fires Mueller. Why not? Because the State of New York can pick up where Mueller left off, and Trump will be unable to do anything about it other than whine on Twitter to his audience of Russian Twitter bots.

From Jed Handelsman Shugerman's piece reprinted in Slate:

In August, sources revealed that Mueller was already coordinating with Schneiderman, likely to work out this strategy. I also noted that all of this legal background is relevant to solve an additional problem: If Trump fires Mueller, state prosecutors can carry on with his investigation and prosecutions based on parallel state laws.

This same strategy adds an explanation for the single Papadopoulos charge. I explained above that a single charge is a classic part of plea deal for cooperation. But Mueller can be saving a number of other charges, both in his own back pocket to incentivize cooperation and also for the front pockets of state-level prosecutors in case Trump gives Papadopoulos a blanket pardon. Mueller is a stone-cold professional.

Image: Trump, by Marc Nozell/Wikipedia / Mueller: Wikipedia