See-Saw South: The NFL's most unpredictable division stays wacky
The most predictable aspect of this NFL season is the unpredictability of the NFC South.
The division astounds on an annual basis. No one foresaw the Carolina Panthers going 15-1 on their way to the Super Bowl in 2015. The Atlanta Falcons' emergence as Super Bowl participants in 2016 was similarly shocking.
Going into this season, prevailing expectations had the Falcons overcoming a Super Bowl hangover to ultimately challenge for a top seed in the NFC, and the restocked Tampa Bay Buccaneers likely ending their nine-year playoff drought.
Instead, the New Orleans Saints (6-2) and Panthers (6-3) control the division entering the second half of the season.
Remarkably, since the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, only one team has repeated as NFC South champion.
| Team | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 2nd | 4th | 1st | 3rd | 3rd |
| Panthers | 4th | 1st | 3rd | 2nd | 2nd |
| Saints | 3rd | 2nd | 2nd | 4th | 1st |
| Buccaneers | 1st | 3rd | 4th | 1st | 4th |
| Team | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 4th | 2nd | 2nd | 1st | 2nd |
| Panthers | 2nd | 1st | 3rd | 4th | 3rd |
| Saints | 3rd | 4th | 1st | 2nd | 1st |
| Buccaneers | 1st | 3rd | 4th | 3rd | 4th |
| Team | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 1st | 3rd | 3rd | 2nd | 1st |
| Panthers | 2nd | 1st | 1st | 1st | 4th |
| Saints | 3rd | 2nd | 2nd | 3rd | 3rd |
| Buccaneers | 4th | 4th | 4th | 4th | 2nd |
There have been more instances in which a team has gone from worst to first in the division (six) than there have been repeat winners. The Panthers won the South in 2013, 2014, and again in 2015.
All of this tells us that the Falcons should have expected to drop in the standings after last season. They may have superior talent and the capability to command a 25-point lead over the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl, but the NFC South only makes exceptions for Carolina
There's still time and opportunity for Atlanta to rebound, however. Though the team lost to the Panthers in Week 9, five of the Falcons' six divisional games come in the last six weeks of the season.
They'll have to catch the Saints, though, who already have two wins in the division and play their final four NFC South games in the last five weeks of the year, including two matchups with Atlanta.
Perhaps with the topsy-turvy nature of the NFC South in mind, the NFL scheduled many of its pivotal intradivisional games during the season's home stretch.
Clearly, it's tough to forecast how well the teams will be playing, but with two games to make up on the Saints and Panthers, oddsmakers don't give the Falcons a great chance at repeating.
| Team | Opening Odds | Current Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Saints | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| 2. Panthers | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| 3. Falcons | 8-5 | 9-2 |
| 4. Buccaneers | 4-1 | 300-1 |
(Odds courtesy: Westgate Las Vegas Superbook)
The odds also agree with the NFC South's bizarre history, predicting it's much more likely that the Panthers make the division's seventh jump from worst to first.
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