Blackhawks are in serious trouble if Toews' decline continues

Like it or not, Jonathan Toews isn't the elite center he once was.

After back-to-back sub-60-point seasons, many expected Toews to bounce back in 2017-18. First-round eliminations in consecutive seasons theoretically provided Toews and the Hawks more time to rest in the summer. They also reacquired Brandon Saad, providing the captain with an offensively proven linemate.

Everything was adding up for him to return to form, but it hasn't materialized.

Toews has just four goals and seven assists in 18 games, putting him on pace for 50 points. Excluding the lockout-shortened season, in which he had 48 points in 47 games, 50 would be the lowest total of his career.

The underlying numbers aren't fully on his side, either. Sure, his shooting percentage is low and his Corsi For percentage is once again high, but his individual high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (iHDCF/60) sits at just 2.67 - his lowest since 2009-10. Last year, it was 4.05, and it has been as high as 5.48 in his career.

So why is Toews' performance declining?

Given the fact he's drawing just 0.17 penalties per 60 minutes after averaging 1.12 over the previous eight seasons in a year where penalties are up would suggest the 29-year-old has lost a step or two. Even in his prime, he was never considered one of the league's fastest players.

Not only is Toews on pace for the fewest penalties drawn in his career, he's also on pace for the most penalties taken. This could either be more evidence supporting the "Toews is getting slower" theory, or it could be attributed to the increase in slashing calls.

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

However, the fact that he set a career high in giveaways (37) last year, and is on pace to do so again (45), also raises some suspicion. It's hard to believe a player with his IQ is getting more careless with the puck with age, but it's not hard to believe he's being stripped with more frequency due to declining foot speed.

Now, all of this isn't to say Toews is suddenly a liability to the Blackhawks. Far from it. But is he one of the game's elite centers? It's hard to argue he still is.

That's a major problem for the Blackhawks. With Toews being paid like the elite center he was in the past ($10.5-million cap hit through 2022-23), Chicago's roster is littered with players making the league minimum.

When you lead a team to three Stanley Cups, you deserve every penny of such a massive contract. But that deal is handcuffing the Hawks more than ever now given that Toews can't carry as much weight as he used to.

Looking at the log-jammed Western Conference playoff picture, Dallas, Minnesota, Chicago, Anaheim, and Edmonton are all on the outside looking in. Many expected these clubs to make the playoffs. Vegas and Vancouver seem like the most likely current playoff teams to fall out of contention, opening up two potential spots.

Unless Toews can prove his start this season is an anomaly, the Blackhawks' nine-year playoff streak will come to an end.

(Advanced stats courtesy: Natural Stat Trick)

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