NFL underdogs: Week 11 point spread picks and predictions
As sports bettors, we know all too well that whatever you think will happen will often not. But you don't have to be amongst the degenerate sect to know that the universe doesn't give two shits about your "best laid" plans.
Take a look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins, who upon the release of the 2017 NFL schedule many moons ago were setting their sights on a September 10 opener with quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Ryan Tannehill leading their respective squads.
Well, it's the middle of November and the Bucs and Fins have yet to play each other, thanks to Hurricane Irma ravaging the Sunshine State and bumping that Week 1 all-Florida showdown to Week 11, when Tampa Bay and Miami were supposed to be enjoying a bye week. Oh, and as for those two quarterbacks, neither will play in Sunday's game in South Beach.
Tampa Bay is a 3-point road underdog in this delayed matchup after originally opening as a 2.5-point favorite at Miami in Week 1. A lot has changed since then and both of these teams could really use that bye right about now.
Instead of Winston under center, the Buccaneers have veteran backup Ryan Fitzpatrick holding his place until the front office figures out what the hell they're going to do with the former No. 1 pick and his bum shoulder. This game could go a long way in making that decision.
Fitzpatrick has been solid in relief and is starting to cook up chemistry with his receivers. Fellow vet DeSean Jackson is waking up from his season-long slumber, with 82 yards in the win over the Jets last weekend, and top option Mike Evans will be hungry for the football after serving a one-game suspension in Week 10.
Miami, instead of enjoying time off, is playing on a short week this Sunday following an embarrassing loss to Carolina on Monday night. The Dolphins were outscored 45-21 as 8-point road underdogs and have allowed a total of 112 points over the past three games.
The Bucs stop unit finally showed some teeth in the victory over New York, recording six sacks. That's 43 percent of their total sack count on the season. Tampa Bay has had some big-name injuries on defense the past few weeks but is starting to get healthy and it showed Sunday, with solid work against the pass and the run.
This spread has crept as low as Miami -1 but there were still a few field-goal lines out there as of this writing. Get'em while you can.
Pick: Buccaneers +3
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 45.5)
When can you get a 7-2 team at almost a field goal? Answer: When they play another 7-2 team on the road.
The red-hot Rams, winners of four straight, face their biggest test of the season when they visit the Vikings as 2.5-point pups in Week 11.
Honestly, I'm not as high on L.A. as some people. Just look at a few of its wins: Indianapolis, San Francisco, Arizona, New York, and Deshaun-less Houston. That's five "gimmie" victories for most NFL teams. But this is a NFL underdogs column and it's hard to turn away from a good team getting the points. That and I trust Case Keenum about as much as my 13-year-old son with a Snapchat account.
Keenum's efforts in Week 10 were pretty much a microcosm of his entire career. Through three quarters, Keenum passed for four touchdowns, no interceptions and rode a perfect passer rating to a 35-17 lead over the Redskins. Then suddenly, he transformed - like Buddy Love abruptly morphing back into Professor Klump - throwing back-to-back picks and instantly inducing sweaty brows for anyone holding a ticket on the Vikings.
That sudden decline was enough for Minnesota's staff to consider starting Teddy Bridgewater this Sunday - a player who hasn't taken a NFL snap since shredding his knee during practice back in August 2016. However, head coach Mike Zimmer gives Keenum the nod - and a ton of pressure to deal with.
Pile on top of that QB controversy the fact Keenum's facing the ninth-best passing defense in the land and a pass rush that has 28 total sacks - 13 of those coming during the Rams' four-game winning streak - and it appears the window of opportunity is once again closing on the journeyman QB. Los Angeles is undefeated on the road and 3-1 against the spread in those contests.
Pick: Los Angeles +2.5
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 45)
It's slim pickings for underdogs this week. And for the past four weeks to be honest. Chalk went 8-5-1 ATS in Week 10, improving favorites to 33-17-5 ATS (66%) since Week 7. That's an average of just 4.25 underdog winners per week in that span - and I'm supposed to pick three of them?! Ruff stuff (I'm 5-7 ATS in that stretch)...
This play on Atlanta isn't so much that I love the Falcons +3 at Seattle. It's more that I don't like any of the other remaining underdogs on the board (save for Tampa and L.A.). Atlanta seems to be the most capable pup, especially considering what they did to my Cowboys last week.
The Falcons made a statement across the NFC, most notably on defense. They sacked Cowboys QB Dak Prescott eight times - six coming from Adrian Clayborn, who took full advantage of Tyron Smith's absence.
Atlanta sinks its teeth into another struggling o-line in Seattle. The Seahawks allowed QB Russell Wilson to get sacked five times in the win over Arizona last Thursday, bumping the season total to 23 sacks allowed. Without a real rushing threat, Seattle is taking all the guess work out of it for opposing defenses.
Falcons head coach Dan Quinn knows this team better than any other opponent, and takes on a banged-up Seahawks squad that is 1-3 ATS at home. So much for the lore of CenturyLink Field.
Pick: Falcons +3
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