NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 12
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Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the National Football League slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.
Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (+4.5, 39.5)
The return of Greg Olsen vs. Jets' struggles vs. tight ends
The NFC South has emerged as the division to watch this season - and Carolina will try to do its part to keep pace with the division-leading New Orleans Saints as the Panthers visit the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. Carolina has reeled off three straight victories - but all that has done is allowed the Panthers to remain one game behind a Saints team that has won eight consecutive games. There's some good news for the Panthers, however: They'll be welcoming back Cam Newton's top passing target.
Tight end Greg Olsen is expected to return to action in Week 12 after missing the majority of the season with a broken foot. Olsen has been one of the premier pass-catching tight ends for the past five seasons, and his presence should ignite a pass offense that ranks an underwhelming 22nd in yards per game (2,090). The Panthers have made do thanks to a top-7 rush attack, but having Olsen back in the fold should allow Newton to rely on the passing game more often.
That starts this weekend against a Jets defense that has had major problems defending opposing tight ends. New York has surrendered 45 catches for 523 yards to tight ends since the start of the season, and its six touchdowns yielded to the position are tied for the fourth-most in the league. Olsen is staring at a significant mismatch to begin his return to the gridiron - and it could be just what the Panthers need to extend their winning streak to four games.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5, 44)
Bears' third-down struggles vs. Eagles' punt-forcing prowess
The Philadelphia Eagles have been the class of the NFL through the first 11 weeks, and will look to continue their red-hot stretch at home this weekend against the Chicago Bears. The Eagles have rolled to eight consecutive victories and are a perfect 7-0 against the NFL so far this season - and if that wasn't enough, Philadelphia should be able to use its enormous edge in third-down defense to force the struggling Bears' offense into a whole bunch of punts.
Chicago hasn't been able to do much with the football this season, ranking near the bottom of the league table in points (17.4 per game), total yards (302.2) and TDs per contest (2.0). Things have been just as bad when it comes to third-down conversions, with the Bears scoring or extending drives just 35.1 percent of the time - good for 27th in the NFL. Chicago went just 3-for-9 on third down in last weekend's crushing 27-24 loss to the visiting Detroit Lions.
Bettors shouldn't expect to see much improvement in that regard this Sunday against one of the league's premier defensive units. Philadelphia has allowed opponents to convert a minuscule 29.1 percent of their third-down opportunities in 2017; only the Minnesota Vikings have been stingier. The Eagles also rank second overall in punts per offensive score against (1.9), behind only the Baltimore Ravens. If you don't know the Bears' punter's name now, you just might by the end of this game.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-8, 38)
Browns' red-zone misery vs. Bengals' clutch defense
Neither the Browns nor the Bengals have much to play for as they square off Sunday afternoon in an AFC North showdown. Cleveland will look to earn its first victory of the season, while Cincinnati will do its best to not be the team that allowed the Browns to halt their 10-game losing skid. The Bengals haven't had much going for them this season, but they do own a marked advantage in red-zone defense - and as you can imagine, Cleveland hasn't had much luck in that area so far in 2017.
The Browns average a league-worst 15 points through 11 games, and there are so many reasons for that - but one of the major ones is a frustrating inability to convert red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. Cleveland has reached the end zone on just 46.2 percent of its visits inside the opponents' 20-yard line - the sixth-worst rate in the league. For comparison's sake, the Browns allow foes to turn nearly 77 percent of their red-zone chances into six points.
When the Bengals look back at why they failed to make the playoffs - and barring an incredible season-ending run, that's how their campaign will end - they certainly won't be able to blame their defense. Cincinnati has made life miserable for opposing offenses, allowing the second-fewest yards per play (4.6) while holding teams to a 41.2-percent touchdown rate inside the red-zone - the second-best mark in the league. Look for the Bengals defense to tighten up any time Cleveland gets close to the end zone.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 53.5)
Saints' sensational backfield vs. Rams' wretched run D
The Eagles might be the hottest team going right now, but the Saints are clearly option 1A on that list. New Orleans looks for its ninth consecutive victory in a pivotal NFC showdown against the resurgent Rams. This battle of division leaders carries the highest Vegas total of the week - and with good reason, as it features two of the league's most potent offenses. But you have to give the Saints an edge in that regard, particularly when matching their elite ground game against an underwhelming Los Angeles run defense.
It's strange to see a Drew Brees-led offense rank inside the top 10 in run-play rate (46 percent) - but with the way Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have performed this season, the Saints would be foolish to go away from them. New Orleans leads the NFL with a 4.8 yards-per-carry average and has produced 144 rushing yards per game, third-most in the NFL. The Saints' 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game is also tops in the league, with Ingram and Kamara combining for 12 rushing scores through 10 games.
The Rams boast an equally explosive offense, ranking in the top five in points per game (30.3), yards per contest (375.4) and touchdowns per game (3.1). But they're going to have a difficult time handling New Orleans' potent 1-2 rushing combination. Los Angeles is surrendering a whopping 4.5 yards per carry - ranking it 27th out of 32 teams - while its 123.3 rushing yards per game allowed is fifth-worst league-wide. That edge could make the difference in what should be a closely fought affair.
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