NFL underdogs: Week 13 pointspread picks and predictions
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Life on the road is tough, whether you're a NFL team or a digital content grunt in his late 30's hitting the highway for business. Hotel beds tucked in too tight. Rooms across from the ice machine. The enviable gut rot from eating restaurant food day in and day out.
Ugh ... I wish the road was as kind to me as it is to the Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers roll into the Big Easy for a divisional dance with the Saints Sunday, getting 4.5 points on the road, where Carolina is 5-1 SU and ATS this season. The Panthers have excelled in the role of visitor, especially on defense where they're limiting host teams to only 17.3 points per game.
This matchup with the Saints is huge for Carolina, which brings a four-game winning streak into Week 13 and is currently on pace for a Wild Card ticket to the postseason. New Orleans, on the other hand, couldn't handle the rigors of the road in a 26-20 loss to the Rams in L.A. last Sunday. That upended an eight-game winning streak for the Saints, dating back to Week 3, and sparked some questions around their defense.
New Orleans has allowed 57 points the past two weeks, which is eight more than the Saints allowed in the previous four games combined. Those weak defensive performances have come with DE Alex Okafor on the sidelines with a season-ending Achilles injury, and they could sure use his pass rushing against Cam Newton this weekend.
But while Newton and counterpart Drew Brees headline this NFC South grudge match, this game will be decided by the run and which team can stop it. The Saints have retooled their offensive blueprint, running the ball 45 percent of the time behind the duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
Carolina has a versatile rushing attack, with running backs Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey along with Newton's ability in the spread, and is also touting the league's third-best rushing defense, allowing only 83.2 yards against per game.
I like the inflated spread on the red-hot road team, especially one that can counter New Orleans' newfound ground game.
Pick: Panthers +4.5
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+7, 45)
There's a lot of talk of tanking in the NFL now that the calendar is flipping to December. Teams with no hopes of sniffing the playoffs will give less than their all each Sunday, in hopes of sliding down the standings and jumping up the draft board.
But don't mention tanking to the Arizona Cardinals. And honestly, Arizona has a better case than most teams for turning off the lights on 2017. The Cardinals lost their game-breaking running back David Johnson in Week 1 and watched veteran quarterback Carson Palmer go down in Week 7. At that point, the Cards could have washed their hands of this season and no one would have blamed them.
This is a prideful franchise, however, and Arizona will not go quietly into the desert night. The Cardinals are getting solid QB play from Blaine Gabbert and have an emerging red-zone weapon in rookie TE Ricky Seals-Jones, who has three touchdowns in the past two games.
The Rams could get caught in a nasty situational sandwich spot: a letdown off a big win over the Saints and a lookahead to next Sunday's showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles. Arizona was a solid play in November, going 3-1 ATS depending on where you got the Week 10 line (+6.5 would have covered vs. Seattle, +6 pushed), and is getting very little respect at home versus Los Angeles.
Pick: Cardinals +7
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47.5)
The Falcons are back! Watch out! Woohoo!
Alright, that celebration was a genuine as Jerry Jones' Christmas card to Roger Goodell. Beg pardon for not jumping on the Atlanta revival but the Falcons have bullied some fractured teams during their "return to glory": a Cowboys team missing just about every key player, an injury-riddled Seahawks squad, and the god damn Buccaneers.
Due to a Thanksgiving Day appearance, Minnesota has had 10 days to prepare for Atlanta, including a weekend to watch the Falcons in action. The Vikings stop unit remains among the league's elite - especially with Everson Griffen back in action - and the offense has scored 30 or more points in three of its last four games.
A win over the Vikings may make me a believer in Atlanta's resurgence, but until then my green is on the purple and gold.
Pick: Vikings +3
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 16-19-1 ATS
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