NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16
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Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the National Football League slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 44)
Dolphins' turnover troubles vs. Chiefs' impressive ball security
The Kansas City Chiefs have apparently fixed what was plaguing them in recent weeks and are back in control of their own destiny atop the AFC West division as they entertain the Miami Dolphins this Sunday. The Chiefs restored order in the West with critical home victories over the division-rival Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, and will look to exploit a significant edge in the turnover department to send the visiting Dolphins to their second consecutive defeat.
The Chiefs looked nothing like the team that inexplicably dropped six of seven games following a 5-0 start, improving to 4-1 against divisional opponents with double-digit triumphs over the Raiders and Chargers. Kansas City controlled the ball security battle in both games, forcing Los Angeles and Oakland into a whopping seven turnovers while committing just one itself. That gives the Chiefs a plus-12 turnover differential for the season, behind only the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Things haven't been nearly as good for the Dolphins in the turnover category, which is one of the main reasons why Miami is already looking to next season. Miami comes into this one with an ugly minus-11 turnover differential, the third-worst mark in the league; the two team behind them, Cleveland and Denver, are a combined 5-23 in the standings. Miami ranks second-last in the NFL with 20 interceptions (thanks, Jay Cutler), and should add to that total against a sensational Kansas City defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-9.5, OFF)
Buccaneers' FG foibles vs. Panthers' elite kicking game
Carolina is almost assured a playoff berth heading into Sunday afternoon's encounter with the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers - but it's the NFC South title that the Panthers desperately want. They come into this one tied with the New Orleans Saints at 10-4, though New Orleans owns the tiebreaker between the teams. The Panthers look to extend their winning streak to three, and they're well positioned to do that against the woeful Bucs - particularly with such a sizeable edge in the kicking department.
It could have been a much different outcome for Tampa Bay this season had the Buccaneers fared better in close games; they're just 2-6 in contests decided by six or fewer points, and they can almost certainly blame their woeful kicking game for at least some of those narrow defeats. Tampa Bay has converted just 20-of-28 field goal chances on the season, good for a 71.4-percent success rate that ranks tied for 30th league-wide. That includes an ugly 7-of-14 rate on field goals of 40+ yards
With so many games decided by just a handful of points, having a top-flight kicking game is almost-certain path to success - and the Panthers are as good as it gets in that category. Carolina has connected on 25 of its 26 field goal opportunities so far in 2017, good for an NFL-leading 96.2-percent success rate. With its only miss coming from 50+ yards, Carolina has been automatic from 48 yards and in - and even if Tampa Bay somehow makes this one competitive Sunday, the Panthers will be hard to beat.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 47)
Seahawks' frequent flags vs. Cowboys' sensational discipline
Sunday's encounter between the Seattle Seahawks and the host Dallas Cowboys could very well decide which team gets into the playoffs, and which team spends the postseason on the couch. Both teams come in at 8-6 and are very much in the hunt for a wild-card spot, though they're headed in opposite directions - Seattle fell 42-7 at home to the Rams on Sunday, while the Cowboys are rolling with three straight wins. And if this one comes down to penalties, the Cowboys are in terrific shape.
Seattle can point to several factors that have contributed to its recent struggles - and for losing its grip on the NFC West after years of dominance. But a lack of discipline is at or near the top of the list; the Seahawks have racked up a league-high 129 penalty flags through 14 games, and their 1,100 penalty yards are 136 more than the runner-up Kansas City Chiefs. The Seahawks had "just" nine penalties for 60 yards vs. the Rams, but drew just three flags for 25 yards from Los Angeles.
Dallas has been far more disciplined on the season, picking up just 83 penalties for 800 total yards. And the Cowboys have been even better in that regard during their critical three-game winning streak, getting flagged three times for 25 yards vs. Washington while drawing eight flags but only losing 51 yards against the Giants. This past weekend's 100-penalty-yard debacle against Oakland aside, Dallas has kept its composure this season - and that should work in its favor against undisciplined Seattle.
Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 47.5)
Raiders' third down problems vs. Eagles' drive-lengthening prowess
No Carson Wentz proved to be no problem at all for the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend, as they got past the division-rival Giants to secure a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs. But there's still one important thing for the Eagles to play for: home-field advantage throughout the conference portion of the playoffs, which would happen with a win or a Minnesota Vikings loss. And Philly has a significant edge against the visiting Raiders when it comes to third-down prowess.
Expectations were high for the Oakland defense coming into the season, but the Raiders have disappointed in several areas. In addition to ranking last in the entire NFL in interceptions (four), Oakland is allowing teams to extend drives or score on 42.6 of their third-down opportunities - good for 27th out of 32 teams. It's no wonder, then, that the Raiders average just 28:39 time of possession per game, ahead of only seven other teams and more than two minutes less than last year's average.
The Eagles' offense is a sight to behold, tied with the high-powered Rams for the most points in the league through 15 weeks. And Philadelphia's work on third down has a lot to do with that - the Eagles have made good on 45.4 percent of their third downs this season, behind only the Atlanta Falcons. Add in the fact that Philadelphia has also converted 15-of-22 fourth-down chances, and it could be a long game for an already beleaguered Oakland defensive unit.
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