The 2 sides of Josh Allen, a wildly unpredictable NFL prospect
With bowl season in full swing, the NFL draft process is just around the corner, and if Friday was any indication, we are going to be hearing a lot about Josh Allen.
The 6-foot-5, 233-pound Wyoming quarterback showed off his talents in Friday's Potato Bowl win over Central Michigan, and capped it off by declaring for the draft right after the contest.
He immediately becomes one of the most polarizing prospects in the draft, with scouts forced to weigh his tantalizing physical attributes against severely underwhelming results.
First let's look at the positives with Allen by using his strong performance against Central Michigan.
Arm StrengthA bullet from @J_Prodigy_5 to @JSco_2 puts the Pokes on top! Two career catches for @JSco_2 and two TDs! #BuildingSomethingSpecial #GoWyo pic.twitter.com/TZh5vRa7XV
- Wyoming Cowboy FB (@wyo_football) December 22, 2017
Arm strength is the natural aphrodisiac for all NFL scouts, and Allen's first touchdown of the game on Friday showed why he has people fawning all over him. An absolute cannon off play-action that he stuck on his receiver perfectly put Wyoming on the board, and a massive checkmark in the arm strength category for Allen.
Mobility. @J_Prodigy_5 came to play! The pass to @AC_2P puts Wyoming up 14-0 on CMU in the @IDPotatoBowl! #BuildingSomethingSpecial #GoWyo pic.twitter.com/2D1DWBNZTW
- Wyoming Cowboy FB (@wyo_football) December 22, 2017
The first thing one notices about Allen is his immense size at 6-foot-5, 235 pounds. Those measurements, combined with the previously mentioned "arm strength," is enough to make any NFL general manager question his current quarterback relationship. When you add in the fact he's fairly mobile, we've hit the bingo on the quarterback wish list. That mobility was on display with an excellent scramble and throw for the Cowboys' second touchdown on Friday.
Deep ballHow about another TD pass from @J_Prodigy_5? He finds @CJ_Johnson15 deep down the middle! #BuildingSomethingSpecial #GoWyo pic.twitter.com/C3ZkBfLKQG
- Wyoming Cowboy FB (@wyo_football) December 22, 2017
His arm strength was on full display later in the first quarter as well, this time on an absolute dime from 45 yards out for another touchdown. His accuracy has certainly been questionable throughout his career, but this perfectly-thrown deep ball showed he can hit tight windows when needed.
At this point it's hard to see Allen going anywhere other than No. 1 overall, right? Well let's get to the less-than-flattering stuff on the Wyoming pivot to balance things out.
His stats| STAT | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|
| Completion % | 56.2 | 56 |
| Yards | 1812 | 3203 |
| Yards/attempt | 6.61 | 8.59 |
| TD | 16 | 28 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 15 |
| Rating | 130.3 | 144.9 |
It's definitely not a "hot take" to say Allen's stats were underwhelming this season and certainly do not read like someone who would be drafted at all, let alone in the first round. His numbers get even worse when he faces the more prominent programs on the Cowboys' roster. In Allen's two seasons as starter, the Cowboys faced three Power 5 programs in Nebraska, Oregon, and Iowa, as well as perennial powerhouse Boise State twice. Allen's numbers in those five games can accurately be described as ugly.
| STAT | vs. Power 5, Boise State | vs. other programs |
|---|---|---|
| Completion % | 46.7 | 57.8 |
| Yards/game | 166.4 | 209 |
| TD | 5 | 39 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 10 |
| Rating | 90.9 | 153.85 |
Before teams fall all over themselves to draft Allen early, a quick examination of his production against other eligible quarterbacks is startling. Following the end of the season, Charles McDonald of Football Outsiders compiled an excellent comparison of Allen to fellow quarterbacks Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Josh Rosen, and Sam Darnold.
thought it'd be cool to compare the QBs that are getting 1st round buzz so far. baker mayfield is in his own world. pic.twitter.com/Rdowp9ZEov
- charles mcdonald (@FourVerts) December 8, 2017
As you can see, the majority of the stats did not look favorable for Allen.
A quick Twitter search of Allen will find a number of varying opinions and comparisons for the Wyoming star, including thoughts from future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger, Carolina Panthers star Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, and Carson Wentz.
Despite some digging in and offering iron-clad opinions on Allen already, nobody can say for sure whether he will be a solid NFL quarterback or not. Finding out is going to be the fun part.
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