Sharp NFL betting action moving Christmas Eve lines at sportsbooks

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On the day before Christmas, the NFL stuffed the schedule stocking with several key games for playoff positioning. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for a handful of Week 16 contests, with insights from Will Bernanke and Devyn Brackett, both with CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints - Open: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5

Defending NFC champion Atlanta won the first matchup between these NFC South rivals, just two weeks ago. The Falcons (9-5 SU, 6-8 ATS) bested New Orleans 20-17 to narrowly cover as a 2.5-point home favorite in Week 14, then edged Tampa Bay last week 24-21 as a 7-point road fave in the Monday night game.

The Saints (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) followed an eight-game win streak (7-1 ATS) by going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS over their last four games. Drew Brees and Co. rebounded from the Atlanta loss by topping the New York Jets 31-19 in Week 15, but fell short of cashing as a hefty 16.5-point home chalk.

Earlier in the week, Atlanta was drawing the lion's share of sharp and public money, but that dynamic changed by Saturday as the matchup became a Pros vs. Joes situation.

"One-sided Falcons action on account, and one-sided Saints action over the counter," Brackett said, and as CG often notes, sharp money tends to come on account, while of course public cash is over the counter. "Account handle is larger, making the Falcons a liability."

TopBet.eu opened New Orleans -5.5 and stayed there until Saturday morning, when the line ticked up to 6. Until that point, Jerome said a heavy majority of money and tickets written had been on the Saints for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys - Open: -2.5; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5

Ezekiel Elliott returns from a six-game suspension, and not a moment too soon for a Dallas squad making a playoff push. The Cowboys (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) lost the first three games without Elliott, but won the last three weeks, holding off Oakland 20-17 to push as a 3-point road favorite in Week 15.

Seattle is also trying to work its way into the playoff picture in this 4:25 p.m. ET clash. The Seahawks (8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) dumped their last two games SU and ATS, including a blowout 42-7 setback in Week 15 as a 1-point home pup to the surprising Los Angeles Rams.

This game opened at Cowboys -2.5 last Sunday night at CG books, including The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. Monday morning, it went straight to 4.5 on sharp and public play, capped out at 5 on Thursday and went back to 4.5 Friday.

"Even account action, and the public favors the Cowboys, as two-thirds of over-the-counter money is on Dallas," Brackett said.

TopBet waited until Monday to post the line on this game, starting at Dallas -4.5

"Tuesday morning, we got a sharp bet on Dallas -4 - buying the half-point at -120 - so we moved the Cowboys to -5, where the line still resides," Jerome said. "Seattle has a slew of injuries, and it showed last week, as they got thumped at home by the Rams. Keep an eye on injuries on the defensive side of the ball."

Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans - Open: +6.5; Move: +6; Move: +6.5

Los Angeles continues to be one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2017-18 season. The Rams (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) bounced back from a disappointing home loss to Philadelphia by going on the road and boatracing Seattle 42-7 laying 1 point last week.

Tennessee (8-6 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) is in the postseason for the moment, but needs to keep winning to stay there - something the Titans didn't do last week. Marcus Mariota and Co. fell behind 16-3 at San Francisco, rallied and took a 23-22 lead with 1:07 left in the game, then lost on a last-second field goal, 25-23 as a 2.5-point underdog.

By Thursday, wagering at CG books from both sharps and the public was overwhelmingly on the Rams, but things have settled down since then. The line went to 6 on Friday and back to 6.5 on Saturday, as this 1 p.m. ET game evolved into another Pros vs. Joes affair.

"Three times more account action on the Titans, while there's three times more over-the-counter money on the Rams," Brackett said.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers - Open: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -4

Much like the Rams, Jacksonville has been a huge surprise this year, already clinching a playoff berth with two games to go. The Jaguars (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) have won three in a row SU and ATS, and seven of their last eight (6-2 ATS), including a 45-7 pasting of Houston giving 10.5 points at home in Week 15.

San Francisco's record doesn't look like much, at 4-10 SU and 7-7 ATS, but the Jimmy Garoppolo era is underway and showing much promise. Since Garoppolo took the reins three weeks ago, the 49ers have won three in row (2-1 ATS). And in Week 15, the Niners actually went off as a favorite, falling just short of cashing in a 25-23 home win over Tennessee.

This 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff has pitted sharps against squares all week, with the Jags opening at -5, getting as low as -3.5, then ticking up to -4 on Saturday.

"Everyone's favorite QB is Jimmy Garoppolo," Bernanke said, with CG noting that sharp money was running 2/1 on the 49ers, while the public was all over the underdog Jaguars. "Over the counter, we're seeing all Jaguar money. The public is backing Jacksonville, knowing (the Jaguars) need to win this game. They're playing for seeding."

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals - Open: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3

Both these squads will pick up the golf clubs early, with no postseason hopes, but New York is apparently turning a few betting heads this week. The Giants (2-12 SU, 6-8 ATS) gave NFL-leading Philadelphia all it could handle before succumbing 34-29 catching 7.5 points at home last week.

Arizona has been up-and-down as it plays out the string on a season in which it lost QB Carson Palmer to a broken arm in a 33-0 Week 7 loss to the Rams. The Cardinals (6-8 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) have alternated wins and losses - both SU and ATS - over the last five games, falling at Washington 20-15 last week as a 4-point road pup.

"The Giants have had multiple head coaches this season, but after their impressive effort last week against the Eagles, some wiseguys are taking the Giants against Arizona," Jerome said, noting that sharp play helped trigger a 1.5-point downward line move.

Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.

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