Projecting William Karlsson's next contract

Not Patrik Laine. Not Tyler Seguin. Not even Vladimir Tarasenko. None of those All-Star-caliber players were first in the Western Conference to hit the 25-goal mark this season.

That honor goes to the criminally underrated Vegas Golden Knights pivot William Karlsson, as the relatively unknown 25-year-old has quietly grown into one of the NHL's hottest goal-scorers.

Karlsson is currently on a steal of a deal at one year for only $1 million, becoming a restricted free agent on July 1.

Given general manager George McPhee's propensity to hand out extensions recently and Karlsson's tendency to tickle twine, now is the perfect time to project what the talented forward could make come summer.

The numbers

One thing should be made clear off the jump: Karlsson's body of work isn't exactly expansive in terms of point production. But, that doesn't change the fact that he has lit the lamp more than any other Western Conference forward this season. That, on its own, should see his $1-million price tag increase exponentially.

Take a look at his numbers through 45 games this season:

Goals	Assists	Points	GWG	CF%	S%
25	14	39	5	55.2	26

Of course, Karlsson's gaudy shooting percentage is bound to come down at some point. But the smooth-skating Swede still owns impressive possession numbers and plays a responsible two-way game with poise in all three zones.

The 2011 second-round draft pick of the Anaheim Ducks didn't exactly enter the show and take the league by storm, as Karlsson only managed 18 goals and two assists over 183 regular-season games for the Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets. But he's elevated his play this season to a level that has begun to turn heads.

Karlsson isn't going to become a top-10 paid player off of only one exceptional season, but he has already done more than enough to secure himself a pretty payday once the season ends.

And it's only January.

The comparables

Given Karlsson's relative lack of track record, determining his exact annual-average value and term is a bit tricky. But given his age, solid season (on pace for 46 goals), and ability to play responsible hockey at both ends of the ice, don't be surprised if his contract falls into the four-to-five year range at roughly $5 million per season.

Here are some long-term deals signed since the start of September that can be used as measuring sticks:

Player (Team)	Age	Length	Value	AAV
Jonathan Marchessault (Knights)	27	6 years	$30M	$5M
Bryan Little (Jets)	30	6 years	$31.75M	$5.2M
Kyle Turris (Predators)	28	6 years	$36M	$6M
Alexander Wennberg (Blue Jackets)	22	6 years	$29.4M	$4.9M

Karlsson falls in the middle of the above players' age range, but their annual-average values and term could line up very closely with what he should receive.

Naturally, the aforementioned four players have more distinguished NHL credentials. But considering Karlsson's individual success along with that of the team as a group, expect McPhee to ink his underappreciated sniper to a significant contract, sooner than later.

Future in Vegas

The last thing to consider when it comes to projecting how long and how much Vegas is willing to offer Karlsson, is how well he fits into the Golden Knights' future plans.

As of now, Karlsson is meshing with his linemates like spaghetti and meatballs, as Vegas' top line of Marchessault, Karlsson, and Reilly Smith has arguably been one the best in the business of late. Those three players account for just over 40 percent of the Knights' goal output, and has been one of the club's most lethal offensive combinations.

Entering Saturday, the Knights sit fourth in league scoring with 150 total goals while also holding down second overall in the league standings - just one-point shy of the first-place Tampa Bay Lightning.

A lot of that has to do with the chemistry of Gerard Gallant's top-six group.

With a goal from James Neal, the @GoldenKnights now have two 20-goal men as he joins teammate William Karlsson on this list of rapid pace expansion team scorers pic.twitter.com/xsjIt6f1Z7

- StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) January 20, 2018

McPhee has already shown his commitment to winning with the long-term signing of Marchessault. With that and his stellar season in mind, Karlsson's big payday could be just around the corner.

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)

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