Blueprint for an upset: How the Eagles can shock the Patriots
The dogs are coming, and the Philadelphia Eagles have proven they have the bite to back up their bark this postseason.
Opening as the biggest underdogs since 2009, the NFC champions enter Super Bowl LII with their MVP-level quarterback on the sidelines and arguably the best dynasty in NFL history standing in the way of their first-ever Lombardi Trophy.
But the New England Patriots aren't bulletproof, as evidenced by the AFC Championship Game. The Jacksonville Jaguars had the Patriots on the ropes before ultimately losing their nerve and allowing Tom Brady and Co. to engineer a dramatic comeback.
The Eagles boast similar strengths to the Jaguars and could form a game plan to take down the favored Patriots. Here's a blueprint for what they must achieve in order to do so.
Put offensive line in a position to dominate
The Patriots lack game-changers in their front seven. Defensive end Trey Flowers is the closest they've got, but he's not a pass-rusher that can disrupt entire lines, nor does he require consistent double teams.
Meanwhile, the Eagles possess one of the league's best and most athletically-gifted offensive lines. The battle between New England's underwhelming front seven and Philadelphia's dominant offensive line may be the game's biggest positional mismatch, and the Eagles must take advantage.
Philadelphia needs to exploit New England's linebackers and defensive line by using the athleticism and speed of center Jason Kelce and right tackle Lane Johnson. The unit needs to move the Patriots horizontally and take advantage of the front seven's overall lack of sideline-to-sideline speed.
The Eagles' offensive line is proficient in run blocking and pass blocking, but, as a way to also protect Nick Foles, head coach Doug Pederson should make use of his three-headed backfield - especially rookie Corey Clement, who has the kind of speed and agility to make plays on the outside.
Attack with a 4-man rush, but stay flexible
Ask most NFL defensive coordinators how to beat Brady, and they will likely say a strong four-man pass-rush. The logic is sound. Brady, for all his gifts and innate feel for the pocket, isn't a mobile quarterback.
In the past, the teams with the most success against the five-time Super Bowl champion have beat up on him with a four-man rush to the point where he lowers his eyes and focuses more on the pressure around him - think both Super Bowl-winning New York Giants teams and the 2015 Denver Broncos. The Jaguars tried this approach as well, allowing their talented four defensive linemen to wreak havoc while using the extra men in coverage to clog the passing lanes and disrupt New England's short-to-middle air attack.
Unfortunately, as the Jaguars quickly found out, Brady has somehow found a way to improve his game despite his advancing age. The veteran signal-caller led the league with a passer rating of 96.6 while under duress, according to Pro Football Focus, far exceeding the league average of 67.4. Brady wasn't just dinking and dunking his way out of trouble, far from it. He also had a big-time throw percentage of 10.3 percent (5.2 was league average).
So the Eagles have a conundrum: go with the tried and tested method against Brady, or move away from their scheme and bring more pressure through blitzes.
Philadelphia posted the second-highest pressure rate with a four-man rush at just over 38 percent, according to PFF, so it's likely aggressive-minded defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will stick with what's worked and hope Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham can have career games. But the Eagles must not be afraid to adapt. They can't make the same mistakes the Jaguars did and sit back and not expect Brady, McDaniels, and Belichick to find a counter to the four-man attack.
Keep Foles in rhythm with more RPOs
Pederson deserves credit for designing an offense that's not only effective but also quarterback friendly, first for Carson Wentz and now Foles.
A major part of Philadelphia's success under Foles is the reliance on the run-pass option (RPO). An example of an RPO is when the quarterback reads an unblocked defender and goes through the motion of handing the ball off to the running back. At which point, the quarterback decides whether the look the defense is giving him is more suited to a run, or if the fake has opened up a passing route, such as a shallow cross or slant.
The Eagles used it with Wentz, but Foles is a less instinctive passer, so Pederson has used RPOs to scheme open his receivers for easy throws to provide rhythm (he has a 93.9 percent completion percentage on RPOs this season, according to PFF).
This will be vital on the biggest stage of them all. The Eagles can't afford a slow start from Foles caused by the magnitude of the moment, so Pederson should dial up some RPOs early to keep New England guessing and carve out some room for the running game to flourish.
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
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