Oilers' future is bleak, unless they learn how to draft without lottery picks
The 2017-18 NHL season has been an absolute train wreck for the Edmonton Oilers. While there are many reasons as to why the Oilers have regressed so dramatically, the root of their struggles boils down to the team's inability to draft well.
Yes, management has made some questionable free-agent signings and some god-awful trades, but poor drafting is at the core of all their problems. And unless the Oilers' brass improves in this area, it could very well waste away some of Connor McDavid's best years.
For a team such as the Oilers, who, starting next season, will have two players (McDavid and Leon Draisaitl) with a combined cap hit of $21 million, having affordable, homegrown players constantly coming through the system is crucial for sustained success. Unfortunately for the Oilers, that hasn't been the case.
Half of Edmonton's 10 homegrown players were drafted in the top 10, where the player taken is a near-lock to become an NHLer. However, the team's draft record outside of the top 10 - when it's no longer a given - is quite pitiful.
Below is a list of the amount of homegrown players drafted outside the top 10 (undrafted free agents originally signed by team included) on each NHL roster, excluding the Vegas Golden Knights for obvious reasons (rosters as of Feb. 17):
| Team | Homegrown players outside top 10 |
|---|---|
| Red Wings | 18 |
| Kings | 16 |
| Bruins | 15 |
| Lightning | 14 |
| Predators | 13 |
| Capitals | 13 |
| Islanders | 13 |
| Senators | 13 |
| Jets | 12 |
| Ducks | 12 |
| Blackhawks | 12 |
| Blue Jackets | 12 |
| Penguins | 11 |
| Sharks | 11 |
| Panthers | 10 |
| Flames | 10 |
| Devils | 10 |
| Canadiens | 10 |
| Stars | 10 |
| Flyers | 9 |
| Hurricanes | 9 |
| Rangers | 9 |
| Blues | 9 |
| Canucks | 7 |
| Sabres | 7 |
| Maple Leafs | 6 |
| Oilers | 5 |
| Wild | 5 |
| Avalanche | 4 |
| Coyotes | 4 |
The difference between a team like the Oilers and Maple Leafs, for example, is that Toronto has an abundance of prospects coming through the system. Their first-place AHL team is filled with homegrown talent in their early-20s ready for a chance in the NHL once a spot opens up. Meanwhile, the Oilers' AHL team is in 24th place, and led by mid-20s journeymen who, for the most part, don't have much of an NHL future.
Here's a look at the five non-top 10 homegrown players on the Oilers' roster.
| Player | Draft |
|---|---|
| Drake Caggiula | '16 undrafted FA |
| Anton Slepyshev | '13 3rd rd (88) |
| Jujhar Khaira | '12 3rd rd (63) |
| Oscar Klefbom | '11 1st rd (19) |
| Brandon Davidson | '10 6th rd (162) |
Even in a down season, Klefbom has still proven he's capable of being a top-four defenseman. Outside of him, this list is sad. Caggiula, Slepyshev, and Khaira are all early in their careers, but so far, they've left a lot to be desired. Davidson, meanwhile, is a seventh defenseman at best.
The Oilers don't need to find future stars in the later rounds of the draft, they just need to find legitimate NHL players who can fill out their lineup. The Penguins and Blackhawks are prime examples of teams in the salary-cap era that have consistently been able to surround high-paid players with quality, homegrown talent on entry-level contracts.
Why is this an issue for Edmonton? Well, instead of having a player groomed from within their own system and playing second-pairing minutes, the Oilers have had to go out and pay someone like Kris Russell $4 million per year. Even to a lesser extent, Edmonton's had to pay Mark Letestu $1.8 million per season to be a fourth-line center, instead of having its own prospect do it for the league minimum. It adds up, and every dollar counts.
How the Oilers can fix this remains to be seen. An overhaul of the scouting staff? A new approach to drafting? Regardless, with few prospects coming through the pipeline, the Oilers will be hard-pressed to produce a consistent winner unless they fix this issue - no matter how great McDavid and Draisaitl become.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
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