Better Luck Next Year: Edmonton Oilers edition
As NHL teams are officially eliminated from Stanley Cup contention, theScore NHL freelance writer Katie Brown takes a look back at the highs and lows of their season, along with the biggest questions ahead of 2018-19. The sixth edition focuses on the Edmonton Oilers.
The Good
Connor McDavid. There's much debate about whether he belongs in the Hart Trophy discussion as the best player on a non-playoff team, but McDavid is making an incredible case. He leads the Art Ross Trophy race, is a cinch to collect 100 points, and should also reach the 40-goal plateau. But the odds are against him, as only three other players in NHL history have won the Hart despite missing the postseason. A generational talent, McDavid is far and away the best thing about the Oilers - and has been since the day he first pulled on an Edmonton sweater.
McDavid and Draisaitl are signed through their primes. Leon Draisaitl signed an eight-year, $8.5-million contract in August, and McDavid's eight-year contract kicks in for the 2018-19 season. Having them both locked up through their prime years is a wonderful development for the Oilers; now it's time to build a better team around them.
Ethan Bear. Bear got his call-up on March 1 and might be here to stay. He's been on the top power-play unit and has averaged 18:12 of ice time per night through his first 12 games. All indications are that he'll remain with the Oilers through the end of the season. As Edmonton's top defensive prospect, he's expected to be in the running for a full-time stay in the NHL next fall. His development shouldn't be rushed, but his progress is encouraging.
Center depth. To win in today's NHL, center depth is vital. That's one thing the Oilers don't have to worry about; there's a good chance they'll have McDavid, Draisaitl, Ryan Strome, and Jujhar Khaira manning the middle in 2018-19. That's not bad at all.
The Bad
Losing Jordan Eberle. Looking at Eberle's first season with the New York Islanders, you can't help but wonder what might have been. Eberle was traded one year after Taylor Hall was shipped to New Jersey - and the Oilers felt the effects of both those deals this year with the overall lack of skill in the lineup outside McDavid and Draisaitl. Eberle's 25 goals would rank second on the Oilers, behind only McDavid; Strome, the player Eberle was traded for, has just 13.
Oscar Klefbom's regression. The Oilers were banking on Klefbom to take the next step, but he fought a nagging shoulder injury that resulted in season-ending surgery in March. With 21 points in 66 games, he was well off the pace of his 38 points over a complete 2016-17 campaign, and his struggles are emblematic of the Oilers as a whole. His recovery time isn't expected to be long, so Klefbom should have ample opportunity to prepare for training camp in the fall and hopefully rebound next season.
Not-so-special special teams. The Oilers have the NHL's worst power play at 14.5 percent, well below the league average of 19.9 percent. At 75.2 percent effectiveness, their penalty kill is 29th (only the New York Islanders and Montreal Canadiens are worse), and their 63 percent mark at home is the worst in NHL history.
Cam Talbot. Talbot's third year with the Oilers is one he'd like to forget. The team's generally poor defensive play and disastrous penalty kill contributed to his current .909 save percentage, the worst of his five seasons in the NHL. He's another player the Oilers can expect to bounce back, as long as they improve the team in front of him. With one year left on his contract, it doesn't make sense to part with him because of one bad season.
The Questions
What does the future hold for Chiarelli and McLellan? The Oilers are a mess. General manager Peter Chiarelli is more likely to survive the offseason than coach Todd McLellan, but it's also possible that both stay. Or both could go. It may depend on who else is available this summer - and whether ownership thinks those options are clearly superior to what the franchise already has. McLellan's done little to remedy the Oilers' consistently abysmal special-teams play, and Chiarelli hasn't effectively addressed their overall needs, trading away high-end offensive talent and getting little in return.
How do they fix this mess? For the seventh time in eight years, the Oilers are a lottery squad. They've had the first overall pick four times in six years. They've also missed the playoffs 11 times in 12 years. It's hard to believe that this is the same team that started the season with the second-best odds to win the Stanley Cup. How many times can they repeat this cycle?
If they get the No. 1 selection, Rasmus Dahlin might be the answer to every question about the Oilers' defense. He's a great fit for what they need. But Edmonton also needs to add depth on the wing. Clearing some cap space by trading Kris Russell or Milan Lucic would provide some wiggle room to pursue free agents. Sure, those contracts might look untradeable, but it's been done before.
Other entries in this series:
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
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