Breaking the Bank: Projecting the contracts of this summer's top UFAs
The unrestricted free-agent pool isn't always stacked with big-name players every summer. But that never seems to get in the way of all the hype attached to an NHL franchise potentially adding a game-changing piece.
After all, some of the names below have built reputations for being exactly that: clutch performers who've earned the right to be called the biggest names on the market. Naturally, those top-tier free agents have also earned something else - major paydays.
So as teams across the league prepare their Brinks trucks to shell out some serious loot, we felt it was the perfect time to take a look at what the top UFAs could be making come July 1.
John Tavares
Current contract: Six years, $33 million. Signed in 2011 with Islanders.
2018 stats:
| Games | Goals | Assists | CF% | TOI | GWG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 37 | 47 | 49.4 | 19:56 | 3 |
Obviously, the most talented player set to become a UFA, Tavares would start an absolute monstrosity of a bidding war if he were to decide to hit the open market.
Given the relative mess the Islanders currently find themselves in off the ice with front-office discord, as well as on the ice with a rag-tag team that failed to qualify for the playoffs for the second season in a row, you can't really blame Johnny T if he's seriously considering changing cities for the first time in his nine-year career.
But, what's he worth? Tavares possesses a strong two-way game, some of the softest mitts in the league, and the ability to change any given game with his elite offensive prowess.
Tavares has earned the rep as being not only a consistent producer, notching 621 points in 669 career regular-season games, but a clutch one, as well, registering 42 game-winning goals.
However, stats and production isn't the be-all or end-all in determining what Tavares - or any player, for that matter - is worth. Another important factor in that determination is taking a look at what other elite players from around the league are making.
Comparable contracts:
| Player (Team) | Age | Term | Value | AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos (Lightning) | 28 | 8 | $68M | $8.5M |
| Brad Marchand (Bruins) | 28 | 8 | $49M | $6.1M |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov (Capitals) | 25 | 8 | $62.4M | $7.8M |
Tavares turns 28 in September, so it's quite obvious that he's in the midst of his prime production years, which will be factored into any team's pitch. However, he remains one of the most well-rounded centermen in the league, so don't be surprised if a heated bidding war and the bear market drives up his price tag north of $9 million per season.
Projected contract: Seven years, $66.5 million. AAV: $9.5M.
John Carlson
Current contract: Six years, $23.8 million. Signed in 2012 with Capitals.
2018 stats:
| Games | Goals | Assists | CF% | TOI | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 15 | 53 | 49.2 | 24:47 | 0 |
While Tavares is the biggest-name forward on the market, Washington Capitals blue-liner John Carlson is undoubtedly the most sought-after rearguard set to become a UFA on July 1.
Carlson had himself a career year at the most opportune time, logging career highs in goals and assists while playing more minutes per game (24:47) than ever before - all right before becoming eligible for a hefty payday. He was easily the Capitals' best defenseman throughout the regular season, and he's continued his stellar play into the playoffs, with three goals and 11 points in 12 games.
The one knock on Carlson is his lack of physicality, as he sometimes gets pushed around by more aggressive forwards in front of the net despite owning a 6-foot-3, 218-pound frame. However, Carlson is one of the more disciplined D-men out there, finishing with 32 penalty minutes or less in the last seven consecutive seasons.
There's no doubt he'll have a number of teams courting those services, but what they're willing to pay and offer in term are different stories. A look at some recent contracts signed by other young-ish defensemen will offer a better idea in terms of length and value.
Comparable contracts:
| Player (Team) | Age | Term | Value | AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Shattenkirk (Rangers) | 28 | 4 | $26.6M | $6.6M |
| Cam Fowler (Ducks) | 25 | 8 | $52M | $6.5M |
| Colton Parayko (Blues) | 24 | 5 | $27.5M | $5.5M |
During a season in which Washington's D-core is arguably at its weakest in recent memory, Carlson has been a revelation, anchoring the Capitals' blue line and putting up his most productive season to date. Sprinkle in the fact that the 28-year-old is only two seasons removed from garnering Norris Trophy votes, and Carlson could soon find himself among the top-paid defensemen in the league.
Projected contract: Five years, $33.75 million. AAV: $6.75M.
Evander Kane
Current contract: Six years, $31.5 million. Signed in 2012 with Winnipeg Jets.
2018 stats:
| Games | Goals | Assists | CF% | TOI | GWG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 29 | 25 | 51.5 | 19:35 | 2 |
Despite being, arguably, the most one-dimensional player on the list, Kane's skill set and recent offensive production still have him in line to be one of the most sought-after UFA forwards of the summer.
However, just like it's been since his midseason trade out of Winnipeg in 2015, the biggest question surrounding Kane this summer will be whether he's a franchise-type player or a peripheral piece destined to always play a supporting role.
To Kane's credit, he's looked like a different player over the past few seasons, both on and off the ice. But especially since his deadline move to San Jose, where he racked up nine goals and five assists in 17 games while forming nice chemistry on the Sharks' top line with pivot Joe Pavelski. Kane continued that success in the playoffs with four goals and an assist in nine games.
His sensational speed and rugged demeanor - along with his explosive offensive ability - make Kane the complete power forward that all general managers spend sleepless nights on the phone trying to acquire. So don't be surprised when multiple teams come calling.
Comparable contracts:
| Player (Team) | Age | Term | Value | AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nino Niederreiter (Wild) | 24 | 5 | $26.2M | $5.25M |
| Patric Hornqvist (Penguins) | 31 | 5 | $26.5M | $5.3M |
| Tomas Tatar (Golden Knights)* | 26 | 4 | $21.2M | $5.3M |
* Deal signed with Detroit Red Wings
It should be noted that if the Sharks sign Kane to a new deal, the conditional first-round pick they sent to the Buffalo Sabres at the deadline would remain a first instead of becoming a second-rounder were he to sign elsewhere. It will obviously weigh into San Jose's decision of whether or not they want the 26-year-old in their future plans.
Regardless, he's as pure a sniper as they come. And when he's on his game, few opposing defensemen have the size or strength to slow him down.
Projected contract: Four years, $24 million. AAV: $6M.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
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