Which NFC teams will beat Vegas' win-total projections?
Now that sports betting will be legalized in several U.S. states, it's a good time to look at the team win-total projections coming out of Las Vegas.
Using the totals set by Westgate Las Vegas Resort and Casino, let's break down the projections for all NFC teams and forecast which are most likely to exceed or fall short of expectations.
AFC I NFCArizona Cardinals (Total: 5.5)
The Cardinals have all the elements of a rebuild with a new head coach (Steve Wilks), old quarterback (Sam Bradford), and rookie QB in waiting (Josh Rosen). Sure, there's some talent on defense here, so look for the Cards to be competitive on a weekly basis. Just don't expect many wins. Not helping their cause: road games against the Vikings, Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, and Falcons.
Projection: Under
Atlanta Falcons (Total: 9)The Falcons were the toughest postseason opponent for the Super Bowl-champion Eagles when the two teams met during the divisional round. If a last-second pass from Matt Ryan settled into Julio Jones' hands in the corner of the end zone, the Falcons might have gone on to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Almost all of Atlanta's 2017 roster is back, so the Falcons are poised for another deep playoff run.
Projection: Over
Carolina Panthers (Total: 9)From the Super Bowl in 2015 to 6-10 then 11-5, the Panthers are the NFL's most enigmatic team. They've added more speed over the last two years, providing Cam Newton's strong arm with vertical weapons. But the addition of Norv Turner as offensive coordinator doesn't inspire confidence that the Panthers and Newton will be more consistent. Nine wins sounds about right.
Projection: Push
Chicago Bears (Total: 6.5)The Bears made some major moves to capitalize on Mitchell Trubisky's talent, hiring Matt Nagy as head coach and signing wide receiver Allen Robinson and tight end Trey Burton. But Chicago isn't deep, so staying healthy will be key. Getting to seven wins could prove difficult while playing six games against talented NFC North teams and navigating tough non-division contests against the Patriots and Seahawks.
Projection: Under
Dallas Cowboys (Total: 8.5)
Theoretically, the Cowboys should be headed for double-digit wins in 2018. They won nine last year despite losing star running back Ezekiel Elliott for six games due to a suspension. But quarterback Dak Prescott could struggle after Jason Witten and Dez Bryant were subtracted from his supporting cast. Dallas also has rough non-division road games against the Seahawks, Panthers, and Falcons. Their margin for error is slim.
Projection: Under
Detroit Lions (Total: 8)The Lions have won nine-plus games in three of their last four seasons. They now hope new head coach Matt Patricia brings the Patriots' winning blueprint with him. Detroit also signed Super Bowl champion running back LeGarrette Blount. Those moves should alleviate the burden on Matthew Stafford to carry the team, and also position the Lions to get back into the postseason.
Projection: Over
Green Bay Packers (Total: 10)If Aaron Rodgers is healthy for most of the season, the Packers will win 10-plus games and the NFC North. If Rodgers gets hurt again, the Packers will be lucky to win 10. Moving on from defensive coordinator Dom Capers and a rare free-agent binge that brought in Muhammad Wilkerson and Jimmy Graham make Green Bay a legit Super Bowl contender - if Rodgers is in the huddle.
Projection: Over
Los Angeles Rams (Total: 9.5)No team made splashier moves this offseason. The Rams added Ndamukong Suh, Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, and Brandin Cooks to a roster that already included Todd Gurley, Aaron Donald, Jared Goff, and Lamarcus Joyner. That's some serious star power. These "dream teams" often fall short of expectations, which explains the low Vegas projection. Proceed with caution, but the Rams seem like safe bets to exceed 9.5 wins.
Projection: Over
Minnesota Vikings (Total: 9.5)
Getting crushed in the NFC Championship Game suggested the Vikings were either an overrated Cinderella or just not good enough to compete with the eventual Super Bowl champs. It was probably a little of both. Can Kirk Cousins save them? He had some great seasons for the Redskins and still never won more than nine games. The Vikes feel safe for eight or nine wins, but 10-plus victories is dicey with gambling involved.
Projection: Under
New Orleans Saints (Total: 9.5)Their 2017 philosophy of running the ball and tightening up on defense helped take the Saints from three straight 7-9 seasons to 11 wins. They'll need to survive Mark Ingram's four-game suspension, but Alvin Kamara is ready for an increased role anyway. There's no reason to think New Orleans won't notch at least 10 wins, even in a competitive NFC South. Most of their difficult non-division games will be played in the Superdome, where the Saints host the Rams, Eagles, and Steelers.
Projection: Over
New York Giants (Total: 6.5)Last year's three-win season belied the team's overall talent level. The Giants have Pro Bowlers scattered throughout the roster, and bringing in No. 2 overall pick Saquon Barkley and free-agent left tackle Nate Solder plugged two glaring holes. This is a team that believes it's primed for another Super Bowl run. That's doubtful, but seven-to-10 wins feels within reach.
Projection: Over
Philadelphia Eagles (Total: 10.5)The Eagles will bring back nearly every starter from last year's 13-win squad, including a slew of injured players who didn't appear in the Super Bowl: Carson Wentz, Jason Peters, Darren Sproles, and Jordan Hicks. As long as they avoid a Super Bowl hangover, there's no reason to think the Eagles lack the talent or coaching to win 11-plus games.
Projection: Over
San Francisco 49ers (Total: 9)
There's been so much hype for Jimmy Garoppolo, which leads to so much opportunity for a letdown. The Niners are headed in the right direction and have their future quarterback, but you can't ignore a tough September schedule. The 49ers travel to Minnesota, Kansas City, and Los Angeles to face the Chargers, and have a home game against the Lions. Later they also have a road game against the Packers and a Bay Area-battle against the Raiders at home. Sorry, I'm just not seeing nine wins here.
Projection: Under
Seattle Seahawks (Total: 8)Although their win total has dropped in three of the past four seasons, the Seahawks haven't won fewer than nine games since 2011. It's difficult to achieve that consistency, and they've done it while asking Russell Wilson to carry the offense because of a weak O-line and running game. There's no reason to believe Seattle has improved in either area. They also parted with Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, and 2017 receiving-touchdown leader Jimmy Graham. The Seahawks aren't better than last year's nine-win squad. Reputation is all they have.
Projection: Push
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Total: 6.5)Don't sleep on the Buccaneers' offseason moves, especially along the defensive line. The trade for Jason Pierre-Paul, the signing of Vinny Curry, and the first-round selection of Vita Vea give Tampa great depth up front. Jameis Winston must emerge and become a top-10 QB, and the Bucs have to withstand a brutal September that begins with showdowns against the Saints, Eagles and Steelers - all double-digit-win teams from 2017. It's not a popular sentiment, but the suggestion here is to buy low and watch the Bucs fly past their projection.
Projection: Over
Washington Redskins (Total: 7)The Redskins will be competitive every week but still have a top-five pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Decent weaponry is around veteran quarterback Alex Smith, though the team lacks Pro Bowl-level playmakers. Their defensive line has some nice, young talent, but the pass rush and secondary - outside of Josh Norman - won't scare anyone. Washington has enough talent to win nine-to-10 games, but only if everything breaks right. How often does that happen? Nobody would be surprised if the Redskins were the NFC East's worst team.
Projection: Under
AFC I NFCGeoff Mosher is an award-winning sports reporter, radio host, and TV personality with more than 20 years of experience covering all major sports and leagues. He also hosts regularly on 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia and is co-host of "The Sports Shop" on Facebook.
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