Ranking NFL teams most likely to go worst to first in 2018
The NFL is a competitive league. A team celebrating a playoff berth one year can see its fortunes quickly come crashing down the next.
Luckily for other teams, however, that trend also works the opposite way.
Recently we've seen a number of last-place clubs earn a postseason spot the following year. The Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles finished at the bottom of the NFC East standings in 2016. The Jacksonville Jaguars accomplished a similar feat, claiming the AFC South title one year after finishing in the division's cellar. The same happened to the 2016 Dallas Cowboys (4-12 in 2015), and 2015 Washington Redskins (4-12 in 2014).
Let's turn our attention to the upcoming season. We've already discussed which playoff teams are in danger of not returning to the postseason, so here are top worst-to-first contenders for 2018.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFC South2017 record: 5-11
Notable moves: traded for DE Jason Pierre-Paul; signed DE Vinny Curry; drafted DT Vita Vea; signed C Ryan Jensen; re-signed CB Brent Grimes; released RB Doug Martin""""
The Bucs did a great job improving their roster heading into 2018. Similar to recent successful teams, general manager Jason Licht prioritized the trenches. Jensen will solidify the team's offensive line after a solid year in Baltimore, and the additions of Curry, Vea, Pierre-Paul, and former Philadelphia Eagle Beau Allen round out a strong, and suddenly deep, front four. Tampa Bay ranked dead last in the NFL with a putrid 22 sacks in 2017, but expect that number to sharply rise. Add the upgraded defensive line to a strong group of linebackers and young pieces in the secondary, and the Buccaneers have the makings of a strong defense.
So why are Dirk Koetter's men ranked last on this list? Well, it isn't entirely their fault.
The NFC South is one of the strongest divisions in the NFL after producing three playoff teams in 2017. The reigning champion New Orleans Saints feature a deadly offense and an ascending defense, while the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers possess strong overall rosters, good coaching, and, most importantly, an advantage at quarterback. Combine a competitive division with Jameis Winston's looming three-game suspension, and the Buccaneers' chances of claiming the NFC South aren't very high.
7. New York Jets, AFC East
2017 record: 5-11
Notable moves: signed CB Trumaine Johnson; signed LB Avery Williamson; signed C Spencer Long; signed RB Isaiah Crowell; drafted QB Sam Darnold; released DE Muhammad Wilkerson; lost LB Demario Davis in free agency
The Jets will be an interesting team to monitor. Their 5-11 record in 2017 was better than most expected, a credit to head coach Todd Bowles, a solid young defensive core led by Leonard Williams and Jamal Adams, and overachieving veterans.
New York's quarterback room, however, will dominate headlines in the coming months. Veterans Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater are candidates to start Week 1, but the team also drafted former USC pivot Sam Darnold No. 3 overall. Darnold can easily become the best quarterback from a strong 2018 class, so general manager Mike Maccagnan could pressure his coach into starting the rookie early. Whoever starts under center will have an improved supporting cast come September.
The Jets likely won't compete for the AFC East crown just yet. The defending AFC champion New England Patriots, who have captured the division title in each of the last nine years, and 14 of the last 15, stand in the way. With Tom Brady still at the helm, expect more of the same in 2018.
The division's other two teams, the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, present a challenge to New York as well. The Bills are arguably in a rebuild mode, but they reached the postseason in 2017, and Miami could be a sneaky AFC competitor while powered by a dynamic rushing offense and strong secondary.
6. Chicago Bears, NFC North2017 record: 5-11
Notable moves: hired HC Matt Nagy; signed WR Allen Robinson; signed TE Trey Burton; signed WR Taylor Gabriel; re-signed CB Kyle Fuller; drafted LB Roquan Smith; released OG Josh Sitton; lost WR Cameron Meredith in free agency
The Bears are a team on the rise after a busy offseason. Gone are old-school head coach John Fox, along with a number of past-their-prime defenders. A new approach will come from first-year head coach Matt Nagy.
Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace made it their top priority to improve quarterback Mitchell Trubisky's supporting cast, which is often a recipe for success in the NFL. With a new, potentially dangerous offense, and an excellent 2018 draft class, the Bears will be a popular sleeper pick in their division.
Chicago may be ready to compete for a playoff spot in 2018, but an NFC North title is an unrealistic goal. After all, the division features the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, and Detroit Lions, three of the NFC's top clubs.
The Vikings, who have one of the top rosters and coaching staffs in the league, upgraded at quarterback with Kirk Cousins. Speaking of quarterbacks, Green Bay has a pretty good one, too, and Aaron Rodgers will have something to say about how the division is won. Detroit, under new head coach Matt Patricia, will field a very strong roster after igniting their stagnant running game by drafting Kerryon Johnson and signing LeGarrette Blount.
The Bears are headed in the right direction, but expectations should be limited for Nagy's first season.
5. New York Giants, NFC East2017 record: 3-13
Notable moves: hired HC Pat Shurmur; signed OT Nate Solder; signed OLB Kareem Martin; drafted RB Saquon Barkley; traded for LB Alec Ogletree; lost OG Justin Pugh in free agency; lost DE Jason Pierre-Paul via trade; released WR Brandon Marshall
Fun fact: The NFC East winners in each of the past three seasons have finished last in the previous campaign. If you believe in patterns, that would set the Giants up quite nicely during head coach Pat Shurmur's first year in charge. Shurmur and new general manager Dave Gettleman overhauled a roster that finished with three wins in 2017, but don't call it a rebuild. The duo bolstered New York's rushing offense, offensive line, and front seven as they switch to James Bettcher's 3-4 defense.
However, the Giants have a tall task ahead of them if they want to claim the NFC East. The reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles will be their primary competition, but the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins will be tough opponents too. A healthy Cowboys squad could revert back to its 2016 form, and the Redskins improved on both sides of the ball.
The Giants' division-title hopes will hinge on Eli Manning. A continuing (and probable) regression from the quarterback could be what ultimately holds his team back.
4. Cleveland Browns, AFC North
2017 record: 0-16
Notable moves: traded for WR Jarvis Landry; traded for QB Tyrod Taylor; signed CB E.J. Gaines; signed LB Mychal Kendricks; signed RB Carlos Hyde; signed OT Chris Hubbard; drafted QB Baker Mayfield; drafted CB Denzel Ward; OT Joe Thomas retired; lost RB Isaiah Crowell in free agency
Is Cleveland the fourth-best team on this list? No. But the Browns' hopes of achieving a worst-to-first campaign are more realistic than some of the others.
After finishing 1-31 over the last two seasons, general manager John Dorsey led a strong offseason and quick rebuild. Baker Mayfield may be on the bench to open his NFL career, which is uncommon for a No. 1 overall pick. The Browns acquired Tyod Taylor from the Bills in March to quarterback a suddenly dangerous offense, with Jarvis Landry and Josh Gordon at receiver, and Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson, and second-round pick Nick Chubb forming an intriguing backfield trio.
When examining the AFC North, there doesn't seem to be much in the Browns' way compared to other divisions.
The Baltimore Ravens have little short-term direction, with Joe Flacco quarterbacking the team in 2018. Baltimore drafted Lamar Jackson in the first round, but he likely won't see extended playing time as a rookie. The Cincinnati Bengals are no better or worse than last year, with Andy Dalton continuing his subpar quarterback play and Marvin Lewis somehow still employed. The Pittsburgh Steelers, of course, are Cleveland's toughest obstacle. But with an aging Ben Roethlisberger, a defense that allowed 45 points to the Jaguars in the AFC divisional round, and an agitated Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers' window is closing.
Cleveland capturing its first ever AFC North crown (yes, seriously) in 2018 is not as far-fetched as it sounds.
3. Denver Broncos, AFC West2017 record: 5-11
Notable moves: signed QB Case Keenum; signed P Marquette King; re-signed LB Todd Davis; traded for OT Jared Veldheer; drafted OLB Bradley Chubb; released RB C.J. Anderson; traded CB Aqib Talib
The Broncos will be an intriguing team to watch in Vance Joseph's second year at the helm. Denver's roster remains relatively intact heading into 2018, which isn't common after a last-place finish.
The Broncos did, however, upgrade at the game's most important position: quarterback. Case Keenum, coming off a stellar season in Minnesota, will now lead Bill Musgrave's offense that features quality pass-catchers. The Broncos also return most of the starters from the league's No. 3 overall defense, adding productive college pass-rusher Bradley Chubb in April's draft to pair with star outside linebacker Von Miller.
Helping Denver's worst-to-first chances is a wide-open AFC West. The division will surely be competitive, but each of the four teams has a reasonable chance to claim it.
The Oakland Raiders, with Jon Gruden returning as head coach for a second stint, made a number of questionable moves this offseason. After a lackluster 6-10 campaign, Oakland could regress before rebounding. The Kansas City Chiefs, the reigning division winners, are the team to beat, but their 2018 success rests on the arm of second-year signal-caller Patrick Mahomes. The 2017 first-round pick has made just one regular-season start, and may not live up to the hype right away. Then there's the Chargers, a team that will be a sneaky contender, but they've already been hit by the injury bug this spring.
The Broncos, with stability at quarterback, could find themselves back atop the AFC West.
2. San Francisco 49ers, NFC West2017 record: 6-10
Notable moves: extended QB Jimmy Garoppolo; signed RB Jerick McKinnon; signed CB Richard Sherman; signed C Weston Richburg; drafted OT Mike McGlinchey; released OG Zane Beadles; lost RB Carlos Hyde in free agency
With an 0-8 record the 2017 49ers acquired Jimmy Garoppolo from the Patriots, and the team finished 6-10, including a 5-0 stretch to end the year with their new franchise quarterback under center. Expectations will be significantly higher in Kyle Shanahan's second season as head coach, and rightly so. With key changes on both sides of the ball, and Garoppolo under contract, the 49ers may be the most complete team on this list.
It's a perfect time for San Francisco to ascend. The NFC West is not what it used to be, as both the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are in the midst of minor rebuilds.
Gone are the days of The Legion of Boom's defensive domination, and Seattle will once again struggle to protect Russell Wilson in 2018. Arizona may have found its future quarterback in No. 10 overall selection Josh Rosen, but the team will struggle initially.
The 49ers' biggest test will come from the Los Angeles Rams. Sean McVay's squad made a number of major roster alterations, and the Rams are one of the NFL's top teams entering 2018. If the Niners can at least split their season series against the Rams, they'll be in contention to claim the division while riding an easier last-place schedule.
1. Houston Texans, AFC South
2017 record: 4-12
Notable moves: signed S Tyrann Mathieu; signed CB Aaron Colvin; signed OG Zach Fulton; re-signed CB Johnathan Joseph; signed OT Seantrel Henderson;"lost S Marcus Gilchrist in free agency
The Texans have the best chance to vault from last place in their division in 2017 to first in 2018, and it starts with their quarterback.
Deshaun Watson was brilliant as a rookie before tearing his ACL in November. The injury will cause some concern, but Watson has looked like his normal self this offseason by all accounts. Houston won just one game without the former Clemson alum in 2018, so his importance can't be overstated.
2017 Texans
- Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) March 15, 2018
34.7 PPG with Watson starting
13.0 PPG without Watson starting
On the defensive side of the ball, the Texans addressed their 24th-ranked secondary by adding Tyrann Mathieu and Aaron Colvin, who both have Pro Bowl ability. Let's not forget about former All-Pro J.J. Watt returning to the lineup (hopefully at 100-percent health) after suiting up in just eight contests over the last two seasons.
Bill O'Brien's team is also ranked above the 49ers here largely because of its weaker division opponents.
The Jaguars, despite featuring an elite defense, will be easier to knock off with Blake Bortles at quarterback than the Rams. The AFC South also features the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. Although Andrew Luck has appeared to be superhuman in the past, taking a rebuilding Colts roster to the playoffs while coming off major shoulder surgery is an unrealistic goal. And in Tennessee, Marcus Mariota threw more interceptions than touchdowns in 2017, but won't be held back by his offensive scheme this year. However, Houston still has an advantage at multiple key positions. A Watson-DeAndre Hopkins combination for a full 16 games? Look out, NFL.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
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