Fantasy: 3 offenses to avoid entirely in 2018
Get ready for your season with theScore's 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
A rising tide lifts all boats, and a star at quarterback, running back, or even occasionally at receiver can make his offensive teammates better and therefore elevate their fantasy values.
Conversely, a lack of talent at key positions - especially at quarterback - can sink the fantasy values of every player in an offense.
Below are three offenses you should consider avoiding entirely in your fantasy drafts this season:
Buffalo Bills2017 passing yards: 2,825 (31st in NFL)
2017 rushing yards: 2,017 (6th)
Full disclosure: I'm a Bills fan. So, it pains me to write the following section. But in the interest of helping you win your fantasy leagues, let's discuss why Bills players will be toxic fantasy assets in 2018.
Uncertainty at quarterback is never a good sign heading into a season, and Buffalo's starting job is a completely up-in-the-air competition between veteran backup AJ McCarron, sophomore turnover machine Nathan Peterman, and first-round project Josh Allen. The Bills' best chance at success lies in Allen's ability to quickly assimilate into the NFL game, but that would be a surprising turn of events given his raw skills and the lack of talent around him.
The once-impressive Bills offensive line, which powered the team's league-leading rushing attack in 2015 and '16, has been dismantled. Left tackle Cordy Glenn was traded to the Bengals this offseason, while Pro Bowlers Richie Incognito and Eric Wood both retired. Dion Dawkins proved to be serviceable while starting 11 games in place of Glenn during 2017, but the rest of the line is as weak as they come.
With less time to look downfield, whoever starts at quarterback will need the receivers to get open in a hurry. Unfortunately, creating separation isn't a strength among Buffalo's pass-catchers. Kelvin Benjamin, who failed to make an impact after being acquired in a midseason trade last year, ranked second worst in average separation among qualified receivers and tight ends, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, Zay Jones followed up a disappointing rookie campaign with a troubling offseason, and GM Brandon Beane made it clear that the young wideout will need to "earn his way" moving forward.
The most reliable weapon in the passing game is tight end Charles Clay, but he's played through knee injuries in recent seasons and his availability isn't a guarantee from week to week.
Downgrades to the roster even turned Buffalo's lone offensive star, LeSean McCoy, into a risky fantasy option. And that was before reports surfaced about a bizarre incident involving his ex-girlfriend. Do you really want to own a 30-year-old back who draws the focus of opposing defenses while playing behind a questionable line, and who may have off-field issues that could result in a suspension?
Remove the Bills from your draft board and thank me at the end of the season.
New York Jets2017 passing yards: 3,182 (24th)
2017 rushing yards: 1,702 (19th)
Many of the issues facing the Bills apply to the division rival Jets. New York sports a below-average line, mostly unproven skill-position players, a transitional depth chart at quarterback, and a low Vegas win total.
Quarterback Josh McCown performed well in 13 games last season and will likely open the year as the starter before inevitably stepping aside for rookie Sam Darnold. A first-year passer like Darnold comes with several unknown variables, including a potential shift in chemistry with his receiving corps.
The Jets also have a wild card in Teddy Bridgewater, who could complicate the quarterback situation if he re-establishes himself with a good training camp.
The backfield is an equally crowded mess, as Isaiah Crowell will try to finally attain the breakout season that alluded him in Cleveland. His role is far from secure, however, with Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire, and Thomas Rawls all vying for snaps. Meanwhile, McGuire or Powell will serve as the passing-down back, limiting Crowell's upside.
Robby Anderson is the one Jet you might consider drafting after he broke out as the WR16 last season, but several run-ins with the law have left him facing a possible suspension from the league. Plus, most of his production came with McCown at the helm, so unless he immediately clicks with Darnold, he'll be hard-pressed to post another year of WR2 numbers in fantasy.
The rest of the pass-catchers don't inspire much confidence for fantasy, with Quincy Enunwa returning from a neck injury that sidelined him for all of last year and Jermaine Kearse moving back outside where he'll compete with 2017 bust Terrelle Pryor. Meanwhile, New York's tight ends make up one of the league's worst units, as Jordan Leggett, Clive Walford, and Chris Herndon IV will battle for playing time.
Indianapolis Colts2017 passing yards: 2,892 (30th)
2017 rushing yards: 1,661 (22nd)
Andrew Luck's health is the main reason to exercise caution before investing in the Colts' offense, but it's not the only thing holding this team's collective fantasy prospects back.
The backfield depth chart won't become clear until deep into the preseason. Marlon Mack flashed game-breaking potential as a backup last year, but his desire to look for the big play often resulted in no gain or lost yardage, while his struggles in pass protection could be an even bigger issue as the team tries to keep Luck upright.
Behind Mack, rookie rushers Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins will attempt to carve out roles in what looks to be an emerging committee - a nightmare for fantasy owners. Plus, it's been a decade since the Colts ranked in the top 20 for rushing yards, so it may not even be worth chasing value among this trio.
T.Y. Hilton does have a fantasy ceiling as a WR1 - if Luck returns to form. However, acquiring him will mean taking a significant risk in the early rounds of your draft, when you could simply pivot to less volatile receivers like Doug Baldwin, Adam Thielen, or Stefon Diggs.
Luck at full strength will support multiple receiving weapons, but it will be a while before we know who will line up across from Hilton. The Colts will be auditioning several players for the No. 2 wideout role, including Chester Rogers, Ryan Grant, Deon Cain, and Daurice Fountain. Don't waste your final-round picks on this group.
At tight end, Jack Doyle had an excellent rapport with Luck prior to the quarterback's injury, but will now have to compete for targets with Eric Ebron, which could cap the upside of both players, leaving them outside the starting range in fantasy.
Unlike the Bills and Jets, Indianapolis does have a path to being a successful offense behind an improving line, but without more information on Luck's progress, any selection of a Colts player will expose you to unnecessary risk.
More from this series- Passing attacks to invest in
- Rushing attacks to invest in
- Offenses to avoid completely
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