Eastern Conference betting preview: Predicting point totals for every team
We're officially one week away from puck drop for the 2018-19 NHL campaign.
To help ring in the new season, we're predicting point totals for every team. So, without further ado, here are the 16 Eastern Conference clubs:
(All point totals are taken from Bookmaker.eu; be sure to shop around for the best numbers available.)
Boston BruinsPick: Under 101.5 points
After underlying numbers suggested an uptick for the Bruins following a 95-point 2016-17 season, Boston did just that, surging to 110 points and second in the Atlantic behind an elite top line and a dash of youth movement within the bottom-six forward group and the blue line.
This is one of the tighter numbers right out of the gate. With a gun to my head, I'll bet against the Bruins, or in this case, Tuukka Rask, who isn't exactly trending in the right direction.
Buffalo SabresPick: Over 80.5 points
When you finish in the NHL basement, you make changes. The Sabres did just that, bringing in wingers Conor Sheary (trade) and Jeff Skinner (trade) and netminder Carter Hutton (free agency), while shipping out Ryan O'Reilly.
Oh, and that Rasmus Dahlin fella should be a pretty decent building block for a future that also includes 20-somethings Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart.
Contender? Hardly. But I'll gamble on the Sabres' revamp.
Carolina Hurricanes
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / GettyPick: Under 86.5 points
It seems the Hurricanes have been the perennial sleeper among the public for years now, to no avail. They still own the longest playoff drought in the NHL.
They're also another franchise that opted for changes over the summer. The 'Canes shipped out Skinner, Elias Lindholm, and Noah Hanifin, and brought in Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan.
The good news is Scott Darling probably can't get worse between the pipes than he was in his first season with the franchise. Then again, where the scoring will come from is the burning question. The Hurricanes have finished bottom 10 in scoring in each of the past five seasons and are now banking on youngsters like Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen to take bigger leaps with Skinner out the door.
Columbus Blue JacketsPick: Over 96.5 points
Columbus will soon have to deal with the situations of star winger Artemi Panarin and two-time Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky, who are both eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer. Still, the Jackets are rife with talent up top - with Panarin, Cam Atkinson, and Pierre-Luc Dubois - and have capable goal-scorers on the blue line in Zach Werenski and Seth Jones. The total is ambitious, but I think they'll get there.
Detroit Red WingsPick: Over 75.5 points
When Anthony Mantha is your best player in terms of value, you'll struggle to find wins. That's not to discredit Mantha, but to stress just how short on talent Detroit is.
The defense is old. The bottom six is an island of misfit toys. For the Red Wings to at least be fun, they'll need to squeeze out every ounce of scoring from guys like Thomas Vanek and Andreas Athanasiou.
I don't trust the Red Wings to magically spike in the East, but I sure as hell trust this franchise's current position and how it will treat the upcoming season more than, say, the New York Rangers.
Florida Panthers
Joel Auerbach / Getty Images Sport / GettyPick: Under 93.5 points
Is Florida the best bad team in the division? Or the worst good team?
The Panthers should be right in the middle of the Atlantic again in 2018-19 - a notch below the Lightning, Bruins, and Maple Leafs, but above the non-contenders.
For the Panthers to succeed again following a 96-point season, you'd be betting on the top-six forward group, which is chock-full of scoring.
What I'm betting against here is the bottom six (yikes) and the expected decline of veteran goaltender Roberto Luongo behind what should be a questionable blue-line corps.
Montreal CanadiensPick: Under 80.5 points
I desperately want to find a reason to take this over based on everything the franchise has endured over the last few months. But, I just can't.
The offense would have struggled to score even with Max Pacioretty in the fold. Key players are out due to injury, and that includes Shea Weber, which puts an already suspect defense completely behind the eight ball. We saw last season how tough it was for Carey Price to stop pucks behind a below-average defense, and I wouldn't expect anything different in 2018-19.
New Jersey DevilsPick: Under 90.5 points
Welcome to the Devils regression train; I'll be your conductor for this long, sad ride back to reality.
This team outperformed its projections last season by a mile thanks to MVP Taylor Hall. That's not to say New Jersey can't surpass this year's projected point total, but I'll take a stab and say the team comes way back down to earth ... or at minimum, under the Vegas total.
New York Islanders
Elsa / Getty Images Sport / GettyPick: Over 83.5 points
I still think the Islanders, an underachiever from a year ago, have a shot at nailing this over despite the loss of John Tavares.
There's still some scoring left over. The defense figures to be a middle-of-the-pack group that probably just needs to avoid being horrible. Barry Trotz is now behind the bench, and unless the Islanders start tearing down the walls at midseason, he should be able to get the most out of his roster.
New York RangersPick: Under 75.5 points
Some pundits I respect still peg the Rangers as a team that can jump the low point total despite a talent-poor roster. It's clear which direction New York has chosen to head, and perhaps knowing the playoffs are an afterthought for now will actually help the franchise and new head coach David Quinn.
Or perhaps Henrik Lundqvist is finally on his decline following consecutive subpar seasons, and perhaps the Rangers will roll over with no motivation as a bottom-five team in the league.
Give me the latter, please.
Ottawa SenatorsPick: Under 69.5 points
Yeah, no thanks.
Philadelphia Flyers
Trevor Robb/TwitterPick: Under 98.5 points
This team has been mired in mediocrity for a while now, but last season showed a glimmer of hope for the days to come in Philly. The roster contains skilled veterans, bright youth, and the elite defensive pairing of Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov. But goaltending is a major concern, and is the one thing keeping the Flyers from an guaranteed jump in the standings.
Philadelphia still figures to be chasing Pittsburgh and Washington while keeping pace with the Blue Jackets. I'm just not ready to push my chips into the middle of the table.
Pittsburgh PenguinsPick: Over 102.5 points
The Penguins are so good that they topped the 100-point mark (again) last season despite finishing in the bottom seven of the league in both five-on-five save percentage and shooting percentage. Unless 2018-19 is the year we start seeing wear and tear on Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel, this team is simply tough to bet against.
Tampa Bay LightningPick: Over 107.5 points
You can point to distractions within the front office, the caliber of starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, how the postseason ended last year, expectations, injury concerns, and all that other jazz to explain why Tampa might disappoint in 2018-19
Still, there's too much talent on both offense and defense for me to pick against this team, even though some of the smarter guys out there are pegging the Lightning as a tad overrated.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Claus Andersen / Getty Images Sport / GettyPick: Under 105.5 points
The youth movement brought in John Tavares to help solidify the Leafs as a true contender. The rich got a bit richer.
That is, offensively, and at the top.
Once you get past Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Nazem Kadri, that's where the concern lies. Toronto might be built to simply try to score its way to the Cup, but what happens if it can't? There are still obvious weaknesses on this team - depth and essentially half the defense - and I think the number is a bit inflated due to Tavaras' arrival and offseason traction Toronto has gained.
Washington CapitalsPick: Under 97.5
I like the Capitals, but I don't love them. Then again, that's usually how it goes with this team.
Washington had been so hard to trust in the past. It was a roster built for contention centered around the best goal-scorer in the world that couldn't make the big leap. The difference last season was once the Caps were written off and sold, they mowed through the postseason.
This season, the aging core is a bit older and the head coach (Trotz) is no longer in the fold. The Capitals are now the hunted, and I'd bet against them here post-Stanley Cup.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
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