2 keys to Saturday's wild-card games

Then there were 12.

The NFL regular season is in the books, and the playoffs begin this weekend with four fascinating games. Oddsmakers expect a very tight slate, as Vegas has made each game a one-score contest, with the Chicago Bears the heaviest favorite by six over the visiting Philadelphia Eagles.

Each game could come down to a handful of plays. With that in mind, here's one key question for Saturday's playoff matchups.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Can the Colts contain DeAndre Hopkins?

The Indianapolis Colts' reward for earning the final AFC playoff spot is a trip to Houston to take on the Texans, their division rivals. However, despite their status as the AFC's sixth seed, the Colts may be one of the proverbial "teams no one wants to face" in the playoffs because of Andrew Luck's return to form and a defense that's growing around rookie linebacker Darius Leonard.

But don't count the Texans out so easily. Behind second-year quarterback Deshaun Watson, Houston secured its third division title in four seasons, finishing with an 11-5 record.

Watson's passing effectiveness is tied heavily to wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins' success, as Houston's aerial attack runs through the talented wideout. Hopkins saw 163 targets this year, which ranked fifth in the league, and he was targeted on an NFL-high 32.2 percent of Houston's passing plays. By contrast, the Falcons targeted Julio Jones, the most-targeted receiver in football (170), on only 27.6 percent of their throws.

Houston has a variety of ways to get Hopkins the ball, but two of the team's favorite designs are the Yankee concept and Flood concept.

The Yankee concept is a maximum protection, two-receiver route design with a deep post route and an intermediate crossing route. Hopkins is used on either route:

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In that example, Hopkins is running the underneath route, highlighted in red. He caught a touchdown pass on the play:

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The Flood concept, meanwhile, puts three receivers on one side of the field and gives Watson a half-field read:

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Here, Houston floods the right side, with Hopkins running the deep out route. Watson is pressured and forced to slide in the pocket to his left, but he still lands a perfect throw to Hopkins that moves the chains.

If the Colts want to pull off the upset, they need to have an answer for the chemistry between Watson and Hopkins.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

Can the Cowboys protect Dak Prescott?

The Seahawks' game against the Cowboys in Dallas on Saturday night is a Week 3 rematch, and there's one theme to watch that emerged during the first Seahawks-Cowboys clash of 2018: Pressure

Specifically, the Seahawks' defense and its ability to bring pressure. That was a big part of the unit's success this season. Seattle pressured opposing quarterbacks on 42.7 percent of third downs, the third-best percentage in the league.

Defensive end Frank Clark disrupted the pocket (defined as a sack, an interception, a pass defensed, or a pass tipped) on 2.6 percent of his passing-play snaps, the league's fifth-best percentage among defensive linemen. In that Week 3 contest, the Seahawks sacked Dak Prescott five times, with Clark (No. 55) recording one on this play:

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The play came late in the third quarter with the Cowboys trailing 17-3 and facing a pivotal third down in the red zone. Prescott aligns in the shotgun, and as he drops to pass, Clark uses a speed pass-rushing move against left tackle Tyron Smith (No. 77).

Clark beats Smith to the outside, but Prescott tries to climb the pocket and escape. Clark tracks him down from behind for the sack, and the Cowboys are forced to settle for a field goal.

Prescott's quarterback rating this season drops from 96.9 to 87.1 when facing pressure. Also, when the Cowboys gave up five-plus sacks this season, they lost three out of four games.

The better the Cowboys protect Prescott, the better their odds are of moving on to the divisional round.

Mark Schofield writes NFL feature content for theScore. After nearly a decade of practicing law in the Washington, D.C., area Mark changed careers and started writing about football. Drawing upon more than a decade of playing quarterback, including at the collegiate level, Mark focuses his work on quarterback evaluation and offensive scheme analysis. He lives in Maryland with his wife and two children. Find him on Twitter @MarkSchofield.

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