5 best prop bets for Patriots-Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are three-point favorites over the New England Patriots, with the total at 56 as the two vie for a trip to the Super Bowl in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.

Let's break down the five best bets in this one via the individual player prop market.

Chiefs RB Damien Williams Over 31.5 receiving yards (-120)

Chiefs running back Damien Williams has come on strong in his increased role. He's hit the century mark on the ground in two of his previous three games but is also contributing through the air, seeing at least five targets in four of the last five. We like his receiving prop against a Patriots defense that has allowed roughly 50 yards per game to opposing running backs, according to Football Outsiders.

Patriots TE Rob Gronkowksi anytime touchdown (+137)

Rob Gronkowski has had a down year on the stat sheet despite staying relatively healthy, totaling 47 catches for 682 yards and only three touchdowns. Gronkowski has also been fade material on his props recently, netting two or fewer catches and 25 or fewer yards in each of the previous four games. Some of that has to do with his matchups, as he's faced the top two defenses in regards to DVOA ratings against tight ends - the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills - over the last three games. The Chiefs rank No. 25 in the same department, giving Gronk some opportunities to get back on track. Instead of paying more on the reception or yard props, we'll take a shot on the plus-EV bet in that he finds the endzone.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Under 43.5 longest completion (-110)

In the last two meetings between these teams, Kansas City's skill players, like Tyreek Hill, got loose for home-run plays. We'll bet the Patriots - and their No. 2 rank in deep-ball DVOA - don't make the same mistake three straight times.

Patriots RB James White Under 5.5 receptions (-120)

James White saw an otherworldly amount of targets last week against the Chargers, bringing down 15 of them for 97 yards. When looking at that, Sunday's listed number of 5.5 looks like a cakewalk. However, White has recorded more than five receptions just once since Week 10.

Patriots WR Julian Edelman Over 6.5 receptions (-120)

Julian Edelman has been Tom Brady's go-to option on the outside, even more so lately with double-digit targets in four of the previous five. Kansas City's secondary is No. 29 in the league in yards allowed to opposing No. 1 wide receivers. We expect Edelman to be the primary target for Brady once again after going off for nine catches and 151 yards last weekend.

(All bets were taken from Bet365. Always shop for the best numbers available.)

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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