Patriots-Rams betting trends for Super Bowl LIII

The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams have plenty of betting trends working both for and against them heading into Super Bowl Sunday.

Earlier in the week, we dug into general Super Bowl betting nuggets while attempting to find edges. Now let's discuss specific team trends.

Patriots scoring at will in postseason

The Patriots have posted two more offensive outbursts in the playoffs, with a 41-point outing against the Los Angeles Chargers in the divisional round, and 37 points scored against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. Since 2014, the Pats are 11-2 in the playoffs on both the over and the team total over, averaging 32.7 points per contest by themselves.

Bettors expecting another crooked number on the scoreboard can find New England's team total in the 28.5-29 range depending on the shop.

History shows McVay is in a tough spot

The Sean McVay-Bill Belichick matchup might be the most underrated of the contest. It pits an offensive genius against arguably the best game-planner in league history.

McVay will likely need to conjure up as much magic as possible to break an alarming trend for head coaches who face Belichick for the first time: They're 7-30 straight up against New England since 2010.

Patriots prone to slow starts in Super Bowls

For a franchise that's hung point totals of 33, 34, and 28 in its previous three Super Bowls, New England doesn't exactly fire out of the gates offensively. In fact, Stephen Gostkowski's field goal in last year's title game provided the first ever points scored in the opening frame for the Patriots in a Super Bowl during the Brady-Belichick era.

That broke a string of seven straight games without a point in the first quarter for the Patriots, who are -0.5 (+135) on the first-quarter spread in some shops. The first-quarter under is also 2-6 in Super Bowl games featuring the Patriots in the Brady-Belichick era.

Rams come in streaking

The Rams hit a minor mid-December bump in the road, losing consecutive games as favorites. Since then, Los Angeles is on a 4-0 run straight up and against the spread, which could bode well for the Super Bowl.

The Action Network found that Super Bowl teams on at least a four-game stretch of covering the spread have gone 5-2 against the number.

Don't take experience into account

The Patriots seem to have a leg up because of their Super Bowl experience. New England's dynasty run has led to the current 53-man roster logging 86 Super Bowl appearances collectively, while there are just five appearances on the Rams' roster.

In 2018, there were 60 appearances among Patriots players and five for the Eagles, and we know how that played out. It's essentially been even in the 11 games with the biggest discrepancies in Super Bowl experience, with the more experienced team winning six times.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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