NFL category leaders: Here's who bettors are hitting early
Months from the opening week of the NFL season, football bettors are getting their fix over the summer through the futures markets. We caught up with oddsmaker Matt Lindeman to see how gamblers are approaching category-leader prop bets at Caesars in Las Vegas.
Odds to lead NFL in passing yards| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 7-2 |
| Matt Ryan | 11-2 |
| Andrew Luck | 7-1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 7-1 |
| Drew Brees | 9-1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 10-1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 12-1 |
| Jared Goff | 12-1 |
| Philip Rivers | 14-1 |
| Jameis Winston | 15-1 |
| Tom Brady | 16-1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 18-1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 22-1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 30-1 |
| Carson Wentz | 30-1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 30-1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 40-1 |
| Nick Foles | 40-1 |
| Russell Wilson | 40-1 |
| Kyler Murray | 50-1 |
Roethlisberger led the league last year in a category that's been fairly consistent - he, Brees, or Brady accounted for the top spot in each of the last five years. One of those players is already seeing a steady ticket count in the early stages.
"Great handle on player to lead league in passing," Lindeman told theScore. "We're currently most exposed to Brees, Mayfield, and Murray. Most tickets written on Brees and Mayfield. (Ryan) Tannehill is the only non-rookie who has yet to receive a bet."
Despite Brees' track record, he comes with concerns because of changes to the Saints' offensive approach over the last few seasons - they went from calling pass plays 63.4 percent of the time in 2016 to 56.3 in 2017, then down to 54.3 percent last season.
Mayfield's trending up following a solid rookie campaign with the Browns and has plenty of weapons at his disposal for 2019. Meanwhile, Murray should be throwing a ton in new head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense with the Cardinals, who revamped the skill corps during April's draft.
Odds to lead NFL in rushing yards| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2-1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 6-1 |
| Nick Chubb | 6-1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 8-1 |
| Todd Gurley | 10-1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 12-1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 12-1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 12-1 |
| Marlon Mack | 15-1 |
| Derrick Henry | 15-1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 15-1 |
| Joe Mixon | 18-1 |
| David Johnson | 22-1 |
| Chris Carson | 22-1 |
| Sony Michel | 22-1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 22-1 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 22-1 |
| Aaron Jones | 25-1 |
| Damien Williams | 30-1 |
| Ronald Jones | 50-1 |
Elliott has paced the league in rushing twice since coming into the league. Second-year backs Barkley and Chubb should put up big numbers based off the systems they're in. But Lindeman says the biggest liabilities are further down the board.
"We took sharp money on Fournette at 40-1 and 25-1 and really need to dodge Ronald Jones and Damien Williams, as we took bigger bets on them at 200-1 and 50-1 respectively," he said.
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 4-1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 11-2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 11-2 |
| Antonio Brown | 6-1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 13-2 |
| Mike Evans | 8-1 |
| Davante Adams | 8-1 |
| Michael Thomas | 10-1 |
| Adam Thielen | 10-1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 15-1 |
| A.J. Green | 20-1 |
| Amari Cooper | 20-1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 30-1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 30-1 |
| Robert Woods | 35-1 |
| George Kittle | 35-1 |
| Travis Kelce | 35-1 |
| Keenan Allen | 35-1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 40-1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 50-1 |
Jones leads the pack, having topped the league in receiving yards twice over the last four years. There are two players on the board who the house will be rooting against ... and they're both on the Browns.
"On player to lead league in receiving, we're in a pretty good spot. Win to most of the favorites outside Beckham," Lindeman said. "Took a decent bet on Landry (at) 75-1, which makes him our biggest liability at the moment."
(Odds courtesy: Caesars)
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
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