Article 4J50K Ranking the NHL's top 25 UFAs

Ranking the NHL's top 25 UFAs

by
Josh Wegman
from on (#4J50K)

Below, we rank the top 25 unrestricted free agents set to hit the open market on July 1.

xGF% = the percentage of expected goals a team generated while the player was on the ice at five-on-five

25. Tyler Ennis

Position: LW/RW
Age on Oct. 1: 29
2018-19 cap hit: $650K
2018-19 team: Maple Leafs

GPGAPATOIxGF%
51126189:5648.19

Ennis' promising career was derailed by a series of concussions and groin injuries after back-to-back 20-goal seasons from 2013 to 2015. He missed some time with a broken ankle during the 2018-19 season, but otherwise showed no lingering effects of his prior ailments, displaying the same quick first step and soft hands he showed in his early days with the Sabres. The shifty 5-foot-9 forward was stuck on Toronto's fourth line last season but ranked fifth in the league in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five.

24. Jordie Benncropped_GettyImages-1133291942.jpg?ts=15Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Position: LD
Age on Oct. 1: 32
2018-19 cap hit: $1.1M
2018-19 team: Canadiens

GPGAPATOIxGF%
815172218:1254.42

Benn is coming off a season that should please both old-school hockey people and new-school thinkers. The Habs generated 54 percent of the shot attempts (CF%) while Benn was on the ice at five-on-five. He managed to drive possession despite starting more shifts in the defensive zone than the offensive end. Benn also brings sandpaper and physicality that coaches love. He's a solid third-pairing defenseman for just about any team.

23. Wayne Simmonds

Position: RW
Age on Oct. 1: 31
2018-19 cap hit: $3.975M
2018-19 team: Flyers/Predators

GPGAPATOIxGF%
7917133015:4043.6

Simmonds is coming off his worst offensive season since 2010-11. Having played a crash-and-bang style for his entire career, it's understandable why some may believe Simmonds won't age as well as other 31-year-olds. Look for him to sign a short-term deal in order to restore his value.

22. Brandon Tanevcropped_GettyImages-1133346949.jpg?ts=15Jonathan Kozub / National Hockey League / Getty

Position: LW/RW
Age on Oct. 1: 27
2018-19 cap hit: $1.15M
2018-19 team: Jets

GPGAPATOIxGF%
8014152914:0743.8

Every team could use a player like Tanev. He's fast and he isn't afraid to throw his weight around. He can also kill penalties, play in a shutdown role, and chip in offensively. As one of the younger UFAs, he'll likely look to cash in on a long-term deal. Buyer beware, though: Consistent offensive production year in and year out is far from guaranteed, and his fearless style of play could eventually take its toll on his slight frame.

21. Corey Perry

Position: RW
Age on Oct. 1: 34
2018-19 cap hit: $8.625M
2018-19 team: Ducks

GPGAPATOIxGF%
31641014:4947.5

What does Perry have left in the tank? He missed the first four months of the 2018-19 season recovering from knee surgery and never quite hit his stride when he returned. As a former Hart Trophy winner and member of the Triple Gold Club, Perry is as decorated as any free agent. He'll find at least a handful of teams willing to hand him a bonus-laden one-year deal, and in the right situation, it wouldn't be surprising if he produced 20 goals again.

20. Brett Connollycropped_GettyImages-1138336771.jpg?ts=15Patrick McDermott / National Hockey League / Getty

Position: RW
Age on Oct. 1: 27
2018-19 cap hit: $1.5M
2018-19 team: Capitals

GPGAPATOIxGF%
8122244613:2050.2

Connolly is coming off a career year, which always makes signing a player a risky endeavor. He's also a below-average skater, which raises some red flags. However, he was one of the most efficient offensive players in the league last season, finishing 16th in both goals and points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, suggesting he could excel with more ice time.

19. Semyon Varlamov

Position: G
Age on Oct. 1: 31
2018-19 cap hit: $5.9M
2018-19 team: Avalanche

Rec.GAASV%SO
20-19-92.87.9092

On the heels of a stellar 2017-18 campaign, Varlamov seemed poised for a big payday with a .930 save percentage in his first 18 games last season. Then he was miserable down the stretch, eventually giving way to Philipp Grubauer in Colorado's crease. A return to the Mile High City seems unlikely, so Varlamov will probably have to settle for a stopgap gig.

18. Joonas Donskoicropped_GettyImages-1130157651.jpg?ts=15Jonathan Kozub / National Hockey League / Getty

Position: RW
Age on Oct. 1: 27
2018-19 cap hit: $1.9M
2018-19 team: Sharks

GPGAPATOIxGF%
8014233713:2557.3

Donskoi was relegated to fourth-line duty down the stretch in San Jose last season thanks to the emergence of Kevin Labanc and the deadline acquisition of Gustav Nyquist. A fresh start seems like a given for Donskoi, who has the potential to excel with a team that can give him a greater role. His age and offensive upside are appealing.

17. Micheal Ferland

Position: LW
Age on Oct. 1: 27
2018-19 cap hit: $1.75M
2018-19 team: Hurricanes

GPGAPATOIxGF%
7117234014:0652.6

Had Ferland not missed 11 games this season, he likely would have hit the 20-goal mark for the second consecutive campaign. Impressive, considering he's a 217-pound bowling ball and one of the game's best forecheckers. His career longevity may not be great given his style of play, but whether it be in a first-line role or third-line role, he could help just about every team in the short term. The issue is it'll likely require a long-term pact to sign him.

16. Justin Williamscropped_GettyImages-1143845277.jpg?ts=15Gregg Forwerck / National Hockey League / Getty

Position: RW
Age on Oct. 1: 37
2018-19 cap hit: $4.5M
2018-19 team: Hurricanes

GPGAPATOIxGF%
8223305317:2759.5

Williams has already stated that if he does return for a 19th NHL season, it'll likely be in Carolina, but he's included in this list as a formality. The veteran can still play - his 23 goals last season marked his highest total since he was 25 years old. If he did entertain offers from other teams, there'd be no shortage of clubs interested in his leadership.

15. Joe Thornton

Position: C
Age on Oct. 1: 40
2018-19 cap hit: $5M
2018-19 team: Sharks

GPGAPATOIxGF%
7316355115:3355.7

Thornton isn't going anywhere. He already announced he's returning for another season, adding that "it's safe to say I'm a Shark." Jumbo Joe is still effective, too. He produced offensively both at even strength and on the power play despite seeing his lowest ice time since he was a 19-year-old with the Boston Bruins.

14. Anton Stralmancropped_GettyImages-1055771854.jpg?ts=15Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Position: RD
Age on Oct. 1: 33
2018-19 cap hit: $4.5M
2018-19 team: Lightning

GPGAPATOIxGF%
472151720:3149.1

As one of the few right-handed defensemen on the open market, Stralman will be a hot commodity. He's no longer the offensive threat he once was but remains a sturdy veteran presence who can make a good first pass. His possession numbers took a hit for the first time last year, which could hint that a decline isn't far off.

13. Petr Mrazek

Position: G
Age on Oct. 1: 27
2018-19 cap hit: $1.5M
2018-19 team: Hurricanes

Rec.GAASV%SO
23-14-32.39.9144

Mrazek played himself into a nice payday on a one-year prove-it deal with the Hurricanes after he was non-tendered by the Philadelphia Flyers. His age and talent are tantalizing for teams seeking a No. 1 goalie, but given his inconsistent past, he may be best utilized in a 50-50 platoon situation.

12. Marcus Johanssoncropped_GettyImages-1149716963.jpg?ts=15Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Position: LW
Age on Oct. 1: 28
2018-19 cap hit: $4.583M
2018-19 team: Devils/Bruins

GPGAPATOIxGF%
5813173015:5549.0

When healthy, Johansson is a very effective middle-six forward. Though injuries have held him to just 87 games over the last two seasons, in 2016-17 - the last time he played 82 games - he racked up a career-high 58 points. In the right situation, it's possible that he could return to that form, but worries about his durability may scare some teams off.

11. Ryan Dzingel

Position: LW
Age on Oct. 1: 27
2018-19 cap hit: $1.8M
2018-19 team: Senators/Blue Jackets

GPGAPATOIxGF%
7826305616:4944.9

Dzingel is coming off a career year, but there's some cause for concern. He scored 22 goals in 57 games with the Senators while being featured in a top-line role, then tallied just five goals (including playoffs) in 30 games with the Blue Jackets. With his age and offensive potential, he won't struggle to find a long-term deal, but which Dzingel are teams getting?

10. Gustav Nyquistcropped_GettyImages-1149149195.jpg?ts=15Ezra Shaw / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Position: LW/RW
Age on Oct. 1: 30
2018-19 cap hit: $4.75M
2018-19 team: Red Wings/Sharks

GPGAPATOIxGF%
8122386017:3152.8

After failing to reach the 50-point mark in the three seasons prior to last year, Nyquist put himself in line for a nice payday. More a playmaker than a goal-scorer, the Swede will likely be paid like a top-six forward, even though he hasn't shown the year-to-year consistency to warrant such title.

9. Anders Lee

Position: LW
Age on Oct. 1: 29
2018-19 cap hit: $3.75M
2018-19 team: Islanders

GPGAPATOIxGF%
8228235117:0552.6

Over the last three seasons, Lee ranks 13th in the league with 102 goals - one more than Jeff Skinner, who recently inked an eight-year, $72-million extension. Goal-scoring comes at a premium in the NHL, and Lee will probably be paid accordingly. Though he did regress slightly this past season, he proved his success wasn't simply a byproduct of being John Tavares' linemate.

8. Mats Zuccarellocropped_GettyImages-1137456224.jpg?ts=15Glenn James / National Hockey League / Getty

Position: LW/RW
Age on Oct. 1: 32
2018-19 cap hit: $4.5M
2018-19 team: Rangers/Stars

GPGAPATOIxGF%
4812284019:5152.0

Zuccarello might be one of the most underrated players in the game. He's incredibly smart, has outstanding vision, and despite using an abnormally long stick, he has great hands. He can seemingly mesh with any linemate and would be an excellent addition for a contending team.

7. Tyler Myers

Position: RD
Age on Oct. 1: 29
2018-19 cap hit: $5.5M
2018-19 team: Jets

GPGAPATOIxGF%
809223120:2147.7

Myers is one of the most intriguing free agents on the market. Not only is he the top right-handed defenseman available, but he offers a tantalizing combination of size (6-foot-8) and skating ability. It's difficult to envision him drastically improving this late in his career, but he could thrive in a larger role after playing primarily sheltered minutes in Winnipeg.

6. Jake Gardinercropped_GettyImages-1139075363.jpg?ts=15Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Position: LD
Age on Oct. 1: 29
2018-19 cap hit: $4.05M
2018-19 team: Maple Leafs

GPGAPATOIxGF%
623273021:1351.7

Gardiner took a lot of flak during his time in Toronto despite excelling in a top-four role while dragging around lackluster defense partners. After playing at least 79 games in five straight seasons, a back injury forced Gardiner to miss 30 games down the stretch, and he wasn't quite the same when he returned for the playoffs. This could scare some teams off, but as the best blue-liner available, a large payday is inevitable for this elite skater.

5. Joe Pavelski

Position: C/RW
Age on Oct. 1: 35
2018-19 cap hit: $6M
2018-19 team: Sharks

GPGAPATOIxGF%
7538266419:0357.1

Pavelski appeared to be on the decline entering 2018-19, but he showed Father Time he still had plenty left in the tank. However, a career-high 20.2 shooting percentage (8.3 percent higher than his career mark before 2018-19) was a big factor in his bounce-back season. He's still one of the league's best deflection artists, but a lot of risk would come with a multi-year deal.

4. Robin Lehnercropped_GettyImages-1140668793.jpg?ts=15Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Position: G
Age on Oct. 1: 28
2018-19 cap hit: $1.5M
2018-19 team: Islanders

Rec.GAASV%SO
25-13-52.13.9306

Lehner has always been extremely talented, and now that he's gotten himself right off the ice, it's easy to be convinced that his remarkable 2018-19 season was no fluke. He said he has "no plans" to speak to teams besides the Islanders, but a conflicting report suggests the two sides aren't close to a deal and his days with the franchise are over. If he does hit the open market, goalie-needy teams will line up for his services.

3. Sergei Bobrovsky

Position: G
Age on Oct. 1: 31
2018-19 cap hit: $7.425M
2018-19 team: Blue Jackets

Rec.GAASV%SO
37-24-12.58.9139

Whichever team signs Bobrovsky to a mammoth extension will regret it eventually, but in the short term, he'll improve any team's Stanley Cup prospects. After a slow start last year, he got red-hot down the stretch, and he silenced his postseason critics with a .925 save percentage in 10 games. When he's on, there may be no better goalie in the world.

2. Matt Duchenecropped_GettyImages-1140822522.jpg?ts=15Jamie Sabau / National Hockey League / Getty

Position: C
Age on Oct. 1: 28
2018-19 cap hit: $6M
2018-19 team: Senators/Blue Jackets

GPGAPATOIxGF%
7331397018:5048.3

Premier centers are always in demand in the NHL. Whether Duchene belongs in the "premier" category or not is up for debate, but as the top pivot available, he's going to get paid handsomely. Duchene was on pace to shatter his career high in points before the trade to Columbus, where his regular-season production faltered before a stellar playoff run with 10 points in as many games.

1. Artemi Panarin

Position: LW
Age on Oct. 1: 27
2018-19 cap hit: $6M
2018-19 team: Blue Jackets

GPGAPATOIxGF%
7928598719:5155.7

Since entering the league in 2015-16, Panarin has missed just six games and ranks eighth in the NHL with 320 points. He's one of the game's most talented players and a true difference-maker offensively. If a bidding war ensues, he could become of one of the 5-10 highest-paid players in the league.

(Advanced stats courtesy: Natural Stat Trick)
(Salary information courtesy: CapFriendly)

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