5 most sensible offer sheet targets
Surely you've heard by now: This is the summer someone's going to sign an offer sheet.
The wait has been too long, the speculation is too rampant, and this offseason's crop of restricted free agents is simply too stacked for the drought to continue another year. An offer sheet hasn't been signed since 2013, and no player has officially been poached since 2007. Something's got to give.
Or maybe not. All the media fodder surrounding the ultrarare phenomenon could indeed just be fodder, but the hockey universe can unanimously agree an offer sheet would significantly spice things up come July 1. With that in mind, let's join the fun and map out five players who should be on the radar for teams looking to shake things up.
Before we get started, here's a look at this summer's offer sheet compensation based on the average annual value of the proposed contract:
$0 to $1,395,053: None
$1,395,054 to $2,113,716: 3rd-round pick
$2,113,717 to $4,227,437: 2nd-round pick
$4,227,438 to $6,341,152: 1st-round pick, 3rd-round pick
$6,341,153 to $8,454,871: 1st-round pick, 2nd-round pick, 3rd-round pick
8,454,872 to $10,568,589: Two 1st-round picks, 2nd-round pick, 3rd-round pick
$10,568,590 and up: Four 1st-round picks
2018-19 stats: 79 GP, 41 G, 51 A, 18:55 TOI
Potential suitors: Avalanche, Islanders, Rangers
Jamie Sabau / National Hockey League / GettyIt may be difficult to pry Point out of a tax-free state and away from a Lightning team built for championships, but it would be worth the price for teams with loads of cap space at their disposal.
For Point to sign an offer sheet, it'd likely have to be worth upwards of $10.5 million a year. That could mean forfeiting four first-round picks, but it's unlikely a team could select a player as effective as the 23-year-old pivot over the course of its next four drafts. Point has franchise-center capabilities on both ends of the ice, finishing 14th in points per game this past season (1.16) while routinely shutting down opponents' top lines.
Tampa Bay could also be in a pinch to match a gigantic offer with only $10.6 million in projected cap space and a major raise for 2021 RFA Andrei Vasilevskiy on the horizon.
Timo Meier, Sharks2018-19 stats: 78 GP, 30 G, 36 A, 16:58 TOI
Potential suitors: Avalanche, Blues, Flyers, Blue Jackets
Brandon Magnus / National Hockey League / GettyMeier probably wouldn't be as pricey as Point, but he shares the distinction of seeking a raise from a cap-strapped contender. The Sharks currently have just 15 roster players under contract and $14.8 million to fill the holes.
There are some other big names on San Jose's list of free agents, too, including captain Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Gustav Nyquist, Meier, and fellow RFA Kevin Labanc. If another team wanted to apply some pressure to GM Doug Wilson, they could slide Meier a lucrative offer sheet and potentially pry a burgeoning star.
Meier broke out in 2018-19, producing strong numbers despite modest ice time. The young Swiss sniper ranked 14th among the NHL's regularly deployed forwards with 1.21 goals per 60 at five-on-five and bolstered his stock with 15 points in 20 playoff games.
Mitch Marner, Maple Leafs2018-19 stats: 82 GP, 26 G, 68 A, 19:49 TOI
Potential suitors: Islanders, Devils, Avalanche, Blues, Hurricanes
Kevin Sousa / National Hockey League / GettyThe poster boy of the offer sheet saga.
Marner's contract situation has drawn the eyes of the entire hockey world and put the Maple Leafs' offseason plans on hold until an agreement is reached - or someone swoops in with an offer sheet.
The 22-year-old winger reportedly met with other teams when the negotiation window opened, and if Marner's motive is to maximize his earnings, his best avenue to do so would be signing an offer sheet.
Toronto is already paying centers Auston Matthews and John Tavares $11 million-plus per season and doesn't have the financial flexibility to pay Marner equally - even though he's led the club in scoring two years in a row. Should an outsider have the space to pay Marner like his superstar teammates, the Maple Leafs might have no choice but to accept the compensation.
Sebastian Aho, Hurricanes2018-19 stats: 82 GP, 30 G, 53 A, 20:09 TOI
Potential suitors: Avalanche, Islanders, Rangers
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / GettyThe Hurricanes have loads of cap space and no reason not to pay Aho adequately, but that shouldn't stop other teams from at least attempting to add a player of his caliber.
Aho, for the time being at least, is one of the NHL's most underrated talents. The Finland native, who turns just 22 in late July, led the Hurricanes in scoring through both the regular season and playoffs while putting up dominant possession numbers across the board.
He's the type of player who could push a fringe contender over the top or set the foundation for an up-and-coming club to build around. Though he'd come with a steep price tag, Aho's upside makes the gamble worth serious consideration for teams in need of skill.
Jakub Vrana, Capitals2018-19 stats: 82 GP, 24 G, 23 A, 14:02 TOI
Potential suitors: Avalanche, Wild, Islanders, Blue Jackets
Drew Hallowell / Getty Images Sport / GettyUnlike the other players on this list, Vrana isn't a bona fide star, but he could provide major punch to a team looking to add young offensive talent.
The 23-year-old flew under the radar for the Capitals in 2018-19, ranking 15th on the team in average ice time. Still, Vrana was incredibly effective in his limited usage, piling up a career-best 47 points - including 43 at even strength. By season's end, he ranked 39th in five-on-five points per 60 with 2.33, ahead of some marquee names like Logan Couture, Aleksander Barkov, Mark Stone, and Phil Kessel.
With only $9.2 million to spend, Washington will do its best to keep Vrana's cap hit down, perhaps even with a bridge deal. If a team ponies up a long-term deal in the range of $5 million to $6 million a year, it could be enough to pluck the young speedster out of the nation's capital.
(Salary info courtesy: Cap Friendly)
(Advanced stats courtesy: Natural Stat Trick)
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