NFL win totals: Public loves Browns and Colts; best bets to consider
Can you feel it? NFL training camps are just a couple of weeks away and preseason games will kick off in a month. The new season brings renewed hope for teams and another opportunity for bettors to find value with projected win totals.
The team drawing the most interest at multiple sportsbooks is the new-look Cleveland Browns. The Browns went 1-31 from 2016-17 but improved to 7-8-1 last season - going over their projected win total of six - after firing former head coach Hue Jackson in late October.
This year, Cleveland's win total opened at nine (-110) at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, but senior oddsmaker Alan Berg said an influx of sharp money on the over quickly moved the juice to -130. Since then, it's been all public money on the Browns, too, making them the most popular win total bet at Caesars.
"In terms of liability, it's Browns over, Bears over, Lions over, and Bills over," Berg said. "The sharps are on the Browns for season wins and the division, but the public is just all over them no matter what it is. They love the Browns."
Here is a complete list of projected team win totals courtesy of the Westgate LV SuperBook, where the Browns also opened at nine and haven't moved:
| Team | Win Total |
|---|---|
| Patriots | 11 |
| Chiefs | 10.5 |
| Rams | 10.5 |
| Saints | 10.5 |
| Colts | 10 |
| Eagles | 10 |
| Chargers | 9.5 |
| Bears | 9 |
| Browns | 9 |
| Cowboys | 9 |
| Packers | 9 |
| Vikings | 9 |
| Steelers | 9 |
| Seahawks | 8.5 |
| Texans | 8.5 |
| Falcons | 8.5 |
| Ravens | 8.5 |
| 49ers | 8 |
| Titans | 8 |
| Jaguars | 8 |
| Panthers | 7.5 |
| Jets | 7.5 |
| Bills | 7 |
| Broncos | 7 |
| Lions | 6.5 |
| Buccaneers | 6.5 |
| Redskins | 6.5 |
| Giants | 6 |
| Raiders | 6 |
| Bengals | 6 |
| Cardinals | 5 |
| Dolphins | 5 |
Meanwhile, the Colts and Eagles opened with win totals at 9.5, but both teams were bet up to 10. SuperBook Race & Sports manager Derek Wilkinson said the Colts and Eagles are drawing the interest of both sharp and public bettors. Indianapolis opened at 20-1 to win the Super Bowl at the SuperBook in January, but has seen its odds shorten to 12-1. Philadelphia's odds to win the Super Bowl are now 7-1 after opening at 10-1.
The same holds true at Caesars, where public money is pouring in on the over Colts win total.
"Last year sharps were targeting the Colts," Berg said. "This year they are a public team for sure. Sharps were on the Colts win total early when it was 9.5 but it's been all public money since the number went to 10. The public really likes the Colts this year."
The defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots have the highest preseason win total for the fourth consecutive year. New England finished 11-5 in 2018, making it nine straight seasons the Patriots recorded 11 or more victories. Tom Brady and Co. have gone over their preseason win total 13 times since 2002.
The Cardinals have a new coach in Kliff Kingsbury, but oddsmakers are expecting another long season in the desert. Arizona has the lowest projected win total for the second straight year. Both the Cardinals and Dolphins are sitting with win totals of five, followed by the Giants, Raiders, and Bengals at six.
If you're looking for value, one win total I like is over the Redskins 6.5. Washington went 7-9 last year despite literally pulling its starting quarterbacks off the street following season-ending injuries to starter Alex Smith and backup Colt McCoy. The Redskins finished 15th in scoring defense (22.5 ppg) but that stat is misleading because the offense struggled for most of the year, often putting the defense in tough situations. Washington gave the ball away 26 times last season but still finished tied for eighth in turnover differential.
The Redskins will start either Case Keenum or rookie Dwayne Haskins at quarterback this season. Whoever wins the starting job will bring more stability to the position than journeymen Josh Johnson and Mark Sanchez did a year ago. Washington will also welcome running back Derrius Guice into the fold. The second-round pick missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL.
Mark Sanchez doing what he does best: finding the open DB for the touchdown pic.twitter.com/Sd39KHcUQx
- NOTSportsCenter (@NOTSportsCenter) December 9, 2018
The Redskins are an interesting team because I expect the offense to be much better in 2019, helping a defense that features one of the best front sevens in the NFL. Over Washington 6.5 (+120) is my favorite win total bet heading into the season.
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