Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Will Drake get unleashed in Dolphins' new system?
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With training camps approaching, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his player projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.
Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:
- Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
- Passing TDs: 4 points
- Interceptions: -2 points
- Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Rushing TDs: 6 points
- Receptions: 1 point
- Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Receiving TDs: 6 points
- Fumbles Lost: -2 points
- Two-point Conversions: 2 points
AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL
| Fantasy Points | 121.42 |
|---|---|
| Attempts | 373 |
| Completions | 213 |
| Pass Yards | 2388 |
| Pass TDs | 12 |
| INTs | 12 |
| Carries | 21 |
| Rush Yards | 119 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 5 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick will likely begin the season under center for Miami, but Rosen should see more starts by year's end. Considering the playoffs are an extreme long shot for the Dolphins - who have the lowest projected win total in the entire league - seeing what they have in Rosen should be a priority.
Quarterback depth: Right now, we have Fitzpatrick playing the equivalent of five games and Rosen seeing action in 11. But regardless of who gets the nod in a given week, this isn't a good breeding ground for fantasy stats from quarterbacks. Only consider them in the most desperate streaming situations.
Kenyan Drake, RB| Fantasy Points | 214.8 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 152 |
| Rush Yards | 684 |
| Rush TDs | 4 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 |
| Targets | 83 |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Rec. Yards | 494 |
| Rec. TDs | 3 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Drake has been creeping up draft boards as more and more fantasy managers realize his monster ceiling in PPR leagues. While splitting the backfield with Frank Gore and dealing with fluctuating touch counts last season, Drake still finished as the RB14, hauling in a career-high 53 receptions. That bodes well for his future under new offensive coordinator Chad O'Shea, who's said the running backs will be heavily involved in the passing game. O'Shea was formerly the wide receivers coach in New England and Drake has been watching film of James White to get a feel for how he might be deployed. If the Dolphins are willing to give him the bulk of the carries, Drake has top-12 upside, but that's probably not going to happen, pushing him down into the RB2 range.
Kalen Ballage, RB| Fantasy Points | 84.3 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 106 |
| Rush Yards | 538 |
| Rush TDs | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 |
| Targets | 17 |
| Receptions | 14 |
| Rec. Yards | 85 |
| Rec. TDs | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
If it weren't for Ballage's 75-yard touchdown that made the rounds on social media last season, most owners wouldn't even be considering him for a bench spot. But the Dolphins' running back depth chart is lacking another contender for backup duties, so he has a clear opportunity to secure the role. With Drake not profiling as a workhorse, Ballage should see more carries than he deserves. Still, his subpar receiving skills make him a poor bet to return value if he's thrust into the starting lineup due to an injury.
Running back depth: When targeting deep sleepers at running back, you rarely aim for players on teams that are heading toward a losing season. Mark Walton, Myles Gaskin, and Kenneth Farrow aren't moving the fantasy needle.
Kenny Stills, WR| Fantasy Points | 135.2 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 81 |
| Receptions | 44 |
| Rec. Yards | 692 |
| Rec. TDs | 4 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Stills has flirted with fantasy stardom in the past and he offers more upside than this projection suggests. The 27-year-old has topped 700 yards three times since 2014 and has scored 21 touchdowns over the last three seasons. The biggest reason for optimism, though, is a possible move to the slot, where he's been most dangerous. If that comes to fruition, Stills could challenge for WR3 numbers in fantasy.
DeVante Parker, WR| Fantasy Points | 124.7 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 85 |
| Receptions | 46 |
| Rec. Yards | 547 |
| Rec. TDs | 4 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
How many times can we be fooled by Parker's offseason hype? Seeing beat reporters swoon over his OTA performance has become the most predictable event on the calendar. If you want to let yourself buy into an incredibly delayed breakout from Parker under a new coaching staff, I won't stop you. His current 14th-round ADP takes away the risk that's been attached to him in previous years. Just don't expect me to get on the ride with you.
Albert Wilson, WR| Fantasy Points | 52.3 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 56 |
| Receptions | 34 |
| Rec. Yards | 442 |
| Rec. TDs | 3 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rush Yards | 15 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
A hip injury ended Wilson's year in late October and prevented fantasy owners from finding out whether his early-season splash plays could convert into bankable production over a full 16-game schedule. Now entering his sixth NFL campaign, Wilson has yet to emerge as a regular contributor. His recovery has kept him sidelined through the offseason and is threatening his availability for Week 1. Given the lack of clarity surrounding the Dolphins' passing game, Wilson can be avoided until further notice.
Receiver depth: Wilson's uncertain rehab timetable will open the door for Jakeem Grant or rookie Preston Williams to see more snaps. Grant is the most logical replacement since he can replicate Wilson's versatility and big-play potential. However, if Stills moves to the slot, a Parker-Williams pairing on the outside would give the team a physically imposing downfield duo. Williams is on my early list of players to scout in the preseason. He has raw talent that could turn him into an impact player if harnessed.
Mike Gesicki, TE| Fantasy Points | 80.9 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 48 |
| Receptions | 29 |
| Rec. Yards | 339 |
| Rec. TDs | 3 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Gesicki's 22-catch, 202-yard, zero-touchdown rookie season was one to forget. However, young tight ends often take time to acclimate to the pros, even those selected in the second round. Like many Dolphins players, Gesicki will hope to make strides under Brian Flores' new regime. His talent is undeniable, so the chances of an eventual breakout remain high whether it happens in 2019 or 2020. In dynasty, now is the time to trade for Gesicki on the cheap. In re-draft, he's a deep stash.
Tight end depth: The arrival of Dwayne Allen doesn't impact Gesicki much, since the veteran will be used more as a blocker. Nick O'Leary and Clive Walford have both enjoyed brief moments of fantasy relevance, but Gesicki is the only tight end you need to worry about in South Beach.
2019 Fantasy ProjectionsAFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL
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