Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Will Arians kick-start Winston's career with Bucs?
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With training camps approaching, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his offensive projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.
Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:
- Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
- Passing TDs: 4 points
- Interceptions: -2 points
- Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Rushing TDs: 6 points
- Receptions: 1 point
- Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Receiving TDs: 6 points
- Fumbles Lost: -2 points
- Two-point Conversions: 2 points
AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
| Fantasy Points | 286.42 |
|---|---|
| Attempts | 608 |
| Completions | 389 |
| Pass Yards | 4783 |
| Pass TDs | 27 |
| INTs | 16 |
| Carries | 47 |
| Rush Yards | 211 |
| Rush TDs | 1 |
| Fumbles Lost | 4 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Winston's 2018 campaign was doomed from the start after serving a three-game suspension. Upon returning to the lineup, he struggled to retake the job from veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, but ultimately finished strong for the second straight year. Entering his fifth season, Winston is running out of time to prove he's the franchise quarterback the Buccaneers thought they were getting with the No. 1 overall pick. Bruce Arians believes he can get the most out of the 25-year-old, and the coach's propensity for the pass favors Winston's fantasy outlook. The Bucs, who have a Vegas win total of 6.5 games, will likely be trailing often - another indicator Winston will air it out. Though he comes with a ton of risk, Winston is a low-end QB1 with a top-five ceiling.
Quarterback depth: Winston's lack of job security makes Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Griffin a little more interesting as potential mid-to-late season streamers. As we saw last year with Fitzpatrick, the Bucs have a formidable set of skill position players capable of going up and down the field at will when everything is clicking. As was the case with Fitzpatrick last season, Gabbert or Griffin won't offer long-term rewards but could be sneaky one-week plays in the right matchup thanks to this offense.
Peyton Barber, RB| Fantasy Points | 130.4 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 189 |
| Rush Yards | 752 |
| Rush TDs | 4 |
| Fumbles Lost | 1 |
| Targets | 30 |
| Receptions | 21 |
| Rec. Yards | 122 |
| Rec. TDs | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Arians has talked up Barber as a player he's excited to build around. However, despite being a reliable grinder, Barber is a pedestrian talent. His status atop the depth chart says more about the Bucs' failure to address their backfield than it does about Barber's deservingness. That's led some in the fantasy community to shift their attention to Ronald Jones, but we'll get to his issues in the next section. Unless someone surprises in training camp and the preseason, Barber will lead this group. Even if he lacks week-winning upside, he's a value at his 12th-round ADP.
Ronald Jones, RB| Fantasy Points | 94.9 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 129 |
| Rush Yards | 477 |
| Rush TDs | 3 |
| Fumbles Lost | 1 |
| Targets | 26 |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Rec. Yards | 102 |
| Rec. TDs | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
After being selected with the 38th overall pick, Jones was a complete flop in his rookie season, averaging just 1.9 yards per carry. The groundswell of support for a breakout campaign as a sophomore is likely to end in another disappointment, and part of the problem seems to be a misconception about his ability to contribute on passing downs. Throughout college and into his first year as a pro, Jones was rarely deployed as a pass-catcher, so it's a leap of faith hoping he can assume that role in 2019. His rising ADP, which has reached the eighth round, is fool's gold.
Running back depth: Arians brought one of his former players Andre Ellington into the mix and the team also signed North Dakota State's Bruce Anderson as an undrafted free agent. In most backfields, those names wouldn't make a dent, but without a bonafide lead back on the roster, fantasy managers need to pay attention to every report that comes out of Tampa Bay. Anderson has already made it onto a couple of my rosters.
Mike Evans, WR| Fantasy Points | 269.9 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 145 |
| Receptions | 85 |
| Rec. Yards | 1369 |
| Rec. TDs | 8 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
If you need us to tell you Evans is worthy of an early-round pick, then definitely spend some time reading our Draft Kit, because you are way behind in your research. Evans was a top-10 fantasy wideout in 2018 and should be right there again.
Chris Godwin, WR| Fantasy Points | 213.2 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 116 |
| Receptions | 73 |
| Rec. Yards | 1002 |
| Rec. TDs | 7 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 1 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Everyone's favorite breakout candidate is ready to deliver. With DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries out, the 23-year-old will have a full-time opportunity to become the fantasy player we all believe him to be. His production is slightly capped by the presence of Evans, but a 1,000-yard campaign with six-to-10 touchdowns is within his grasp. He's one of several young receivers to target in the fifth round.
Receiver depth: Former first-rounder Breshad Perriman busted in Baltimore, but has drawn praise so far in Tampa. He'll battle athletic freak Justin Watson and sixth-round speedster Scott Miller for the No. 3 job. Watson and Miller have the most fantasy upside of the trio.
O.J. Howard, TE| Fantasy Points | 189.5 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 84 |
| Receptions | 58 |
| Rec. Yards | 895 |
| Rec. TDs | 7 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
In two injury-shortened seasons, Howard has graded out among the NFL's elite tight ends, according to Pro Football Focus. He was on pace for 904 yards and eight touchdowns a year ago and should pick up right where he left off. If you miss out or choose to pass on the top tier of tight ends, Howard needs to be the next name on your list.
Tight end depth: Cameron Brate held Howard off during the latter's rookie season in 2017, but the succession plan came into focus last year. Brate was unable to crack 40 yards in any game, turning him into a touchdown-dependent desperation play.
2019 Fantasy ProjectionsAFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
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