Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Chiefs' outlook after Hill avoids suspension
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With training camps approaching, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his offensive projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.
Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:
- Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
- Passing TDs: 4 points
- Interceptions: -2 points
- Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Rushing TDs: 6 points
- Receptions: 1 point
- Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Receiving TDs: 6 points
- Fumbles Lost: -2 points
- Two-point Conversions: 2 points
AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK
NFC East
DAL | PHI
| Fantasy Points | 358.54 |
|---|---|
| Attempts | 573 |
| Completions | 378 |
| Pass Yards | 4871 |
| Pass TDs | 38 |
| INTs | 12 |
| Carries | 56 |
| Rush Yards | 257 |
| Rush TDs | 2 |
| Fumbles Lost | 3 |
| 2PT | 1 |
Mahomes captured the crown as fantasy's best quarterback in 2018, throwing for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns while recording 10 games with at least three scores. It could be a throne he occupies for a while. However, as good as the 23-year-old is, regression will come for him this year. Excluding Tom Brady - whose 2008 campaign was lost due to injury - quarterbacks who've thrown 45 touchdowns or more in a season have seen their TD totals drop by an average of 12.8 the following year. Our projection still has Mahomes repeating as fantasy's top quarterback, he just won't be posting a 400-fantasy point campaign in the process.
Quarterback depth: Veteran Chad Henne holds the clipboard for Mahomes. Obviously, the party would come to a screeching halt if Henne were asked to step in for any amount of time.
Damien Williams, RB| Fantasy Points | 272.6 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 226 |
| Rush Yards | 1108 |
| Rush TDs | 9 |
| Fumbles Lost | 2 |
| Targets | 64 |
| Receptions | 51 |
| Rec. Yards | 428 |
| Rec. TDs | 3 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Williams is one of the more polarizing fantasy assets heading into the 2019 campaign. However, he could swing titles if he can produce like he did down the stretch last season. The five-year pro was thrust into the starting lineup after Kareem Hunt was released and rose to the occasion with 572 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns over his final five games, including the playoffs. Andy Reid confirmed the team views Williams as the full-time starter, a role that's been bountiful for fantasy owners. There's a possibility Williams turns back into a pumpkin, but everything's lined up for him to be a low-end RB1.
Carlos Hyde, RB| Fantasy Points | 89.6 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 115 |
| Rush Yards | 414 |
| Rush TDs | 4 |
| Fumbles Lost | 1 |
| Targets | 20 |
| Receptions | 15 |
| Rec. Yards | 112 |
| Rec. TDs | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Hyde appeared to be on the verge of breaking out with the 49ers early in his career, but his rushing efficiency has greatly declined the past two seasons. He could presumably produce if called upon with the talented corps around him, but he's not going to steal this job from Williams. Consider Hyde a handcuff with significant upside.
Running back depth: Sixth-rounder Darwin Thompson is a smaller back with some fight in him, a souped-up third-down option who displayed an ability in college to handle the wear and tear of more touches if needed. He's a sleeper who will likely get talked up in the preseason as fantasy managers desperately try to secure pieces of the Chiefs' offense any way they can.
Tyreek Hill, WR| Fantasy Points | 292.5 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 128 |
| Receptions | 82 |
| Rec. Yards | 1379 |
| Rec. TDs | 9 |
| Carries | 19 |
| Rush Yards | 126 |
| Rush TDs | 1 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Hill will be available for all 16 games after avoiding any punishment over allegations of child abuse. Regardless of how anyone feels about the league's decision, he now projects as a top-seven wideout. Though Hill lacks the consistency of some of the elite players at his position, his weekly ceiling may be higher than any pass-catcher in the NFL. His ADP will take some time to adjust, but it should settle in the second round.
Sammy Watkins, WR| Fantasy Points | 192.3 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 92 |
| Receptions | 67 |
| Rec. Yards | 890 |
| Rec. TDs | 5 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rush Yards | 63 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Watkins' first season in Kansas City was limited by injuries, which has sadly been a recurring theme in his career. He flashed game-breaking skills when healthy and provided Mahomes with another dangerous weapon on the outside. In the eight games where Watkins saw the field on at least 75 percent of the snaps, he played at a pace that would've resulted in 78 receptions, 1,030 yards, and seven touchdowns over a full schedule. If he can stay off the trainer's table, Watkins is a top-30 fantasy wideout.
Receiver depth: With Hill available, Demarcus Robinson is reportedly in line to serve as the Chiefs' third receiver, according to Nate Taylor of The Athletic. Both Robinson and Chris Conley, who held the No. 3 role last season, were touchdown-dependent fantasy options a year ago, scoring nine times between them on limited targets. Even though Conley left in free agency, Robinson's outlook doesn't change much. He's an intriguing best-ball pick who still needs to hold off Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle throughout training camp and the preseason.
Travis Kelce, TE| Fantasy Points | 276.4 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 139 |
| Receptions | 97 |
| Rec. Yards | 1254 |
| Rec. TDs | 9 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Mahomes took the QB crown last year, but Kelce has owned the tight end position for three straight seasons. In fact, Kelce's 294.6 fantasy points in 2018 would've made him the WR9 or the RB6. He deserves to be selected in the opening 20 picks of every fantasy draft and a legitimate argument can be made for him sneaking into the first round.
Tight end depth: Blake Bell is a player you can put on your watchlist just in case Kelce suffers an injury. Bell, who was signed to replace Demetrius Harris, would be a streamer candidate if he were given a start in this offense.
2019 Fantasy ProjectionsAFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK
NFC East
DAL | PHI
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