5 players likely to regress next season

It's incredibly difficult to stay consistent at the NHL level; some players experience regression, unable to carry over their success from one campaign to the next.

Regression doesn't necessarily result in a poor season or a downward trend that will last for the rest of a given player's career. It simply means not being able to reach lofty totals achieved the season prior due to multiple factors, including circumstance, age, and unsustainable statistical trends.

Here are five players that are likely to take a step back in 2019-20:

Joe Pavelski Brandon Magnus / National Hockey League / Getty

GP	G	A	P	ATOI
75	38	26	64	19:03

Pavelski's point total has declined for three consecutive campaigns, and the 35-year-old isn't getting any younger.

Even though the sharpshooter hit the 30-goal mark for the fourth time in the last six campaigns and led the Sharks in tallies last season, his 2.1 shots on goal per game marked his lowest average since his rookie season. His accompanying shooting percentage of 20 suggests he had some luck.

Only 14 players all time have hit the 38-goal mark in their age-35 season or older. The last player to do it was Daniel Alfredsson in 2007-08 - the only skater on that list who's not in the Hockey Hall of Fame.

Pavelski will also have to adjust to a new home for the first time in his 13-year career. The Dallas Stars - who he signed a three-year deal with in the offseason - are far less offensive-minded than the Sharks.

Robin Lehner Mike Stobe / National Hockey League / Getty

GP	W	GAA	SV%	SO
46	25	2.13	.930	6

Lehner backstopped the New York Islanders to one of the most memorable underdog seasons in recent memory in 2018-19. The Swede's incredible play between the pipes helped lift a team that many projected to be lottery-bound to the Metropolitan Division's second seed.

However, playing in the Windy City after inking a one-year deal with the Chicago Blackhawks offers Lehner an entirely different challenge. The Islanders' structurally-sound, defensive-minded game is the polar opposite of how the run-and-gun Blackhawks operate.

The Islanders finished fourth in the league in blocked shots last season and allowed the fewest goals against with 191 - exactly 100 less than the Blackhawks. Chicago also conceded the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at 13.66; the Islanders surrendered 10.79. But perhaps the most glaring indication of the Blackhawks' porous defense is the fact that all three of their netminders ranked within the top four league-wide in terms of closest average shot distance.

Lehner has proven to be a reliable No. 1 option, but it's hard to imagine him putting together another career season playing behind Chicago's vulnerable defense.

Pierre-Luc Dubois Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

GP	G	A	P	ATOI
82	27	34	61	17:43

Dubois certainly has the tools to prove us wrong, but he's also benefited by having Russian superstar Artemi Panarin on his wing early on in his career.

Here's the Blue Jackets' share of 5-on-5 offense when Dubois is on the ice with Panarin compared to without:

CF% W	CF% w/o	HDSC% W	HDSC% w/o	xGF% W	xGF% w/o
55.39	41.83	55.19	41.86	57.06	42.54

In addition to losing Panarin, forwards Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel also won't be back with the club, leaving a large hole offensively. The Blue Jackets brought in skilled forward Gustav Nyquist on a five-year deal and will have 41-goal man Cam Atkinson, but more of the offensive duty will fall on Dubois.

He's unquestionably capable of becoming a blue-chip center, but with less talent around to help boost his game, Dubois will have to figure out how to navigate being the guy. He may be due for a temporary step back before he takes another large leap forward.

Leon DraisaitlAndy Devlin / National Hockey League / Getty

GP	G	A	P	ATOI
82	50	55	105	22:35

Draisaitl is one of the greatest natural talents in the league, but his career-best campaign with the Edmonton Oilers last season came with some good fortune.

The big German doubled his goal total from the 2017-18 season, but also saw his 5-on-5 shooting percentage rise from 9.9, which is around league average, to an unsustainable mark of 20. When you include special teams, Draisaitl's shooting percentage of 21.6 led the league among players with a minimum of 80 shots on goal.

In addition, Draisaitl benefitted from playing heavily alongside Connor McDavidlast season. The pair logged a total of 805:37 of 5-on-5 ice time in 2018-19 compared to 498:33 in 2017-18. However, new head coach Dave Tippett has already said he's not stuck on keeping the duo together.

Splitting up the two stars - and pairing McDavid alongside proven scorer James Neal - may be more beneficial for the Oilers for the upcoming campaign, but Draisaitl likely won't be able to replicate last season's production while driving his own line on the second unit.

Jordan Binnington Bruce Bennett / Getty Images Sport / Getty

GP	W	GAA	SV%	SO
32	24	1.89	.927	5

Binnington should have a strong sophomore season, but it's unrealistic to think the netminder will repeat his incredible rookie totals over an entire NHL campaign. The Ontario native has never played more than 50 games in a single regular season at any level, and will likely be tasked with that kind of workload for the St. Louis Blues during the upcoming campaign.

The 25-year-old actually started to regress around the midway point of his 32-game stint last season, including the playoffs.

Sample size	GAA	SV%	SO
First 16 GP	1.58	.937	4
Last 16 GP	2.17	.918	1
Playoffs	2.46	.914	1

Binnington also faced the second-fewest high-danger shots against per 60 minutes among goalies with at least 15 starts - a testament to the Blues' strong defensive core.

That being said, with captain Alex Pietrangelo turning 30 in January, St. Louis will have four regular blue-liners over the age of 30 with a ton of extra hockey under their belt after winning Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. The Blues will also be tasked with competing in a much-improved Central Division.

Advanced stats courtesy of NaturalStatTrick / Hockeyviz

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