Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Will Lions' Johnson explode with Riddick gone?

Justin Boone

from on 2019-07-30 04:24 (#4M3VS)

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With training camps approaching, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his offensive projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.

Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:

Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
Passing TDs: 4 points
Interceptions: -2 points
Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Rushing TDs: 6 points
Receptions: 1 point
Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Receiving TDs: 6 points
Fumbles Lost: -2 points
Two-point Conversions: 2 points

2019 Fantasy Projections

AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK | LAC
NFC East
DAL | PHI | NYG | WAS
AFC South
JAX
NFC North
DET | GB

Detroit LionsMatthew Stafford, QB

Fantasy Points	221.44
Attempts	531
Completions	349
Pass Yards	3871
Pass TDs	22
INTs	11
Carries	27
Rush Yards	86
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	4
2PT	0

For the majority of his career, Stafford had benefitted from being at the helm of a high-volume passing attack. That's why Matt Patricia's decision to veer toward a run-heavy scheme last year hurt his QB's production more than anyone's. Stafford was held under 4,000 yards for the first time since 2010, pushing him out of the fantasy conversation by season's end. Supporters will point to his back injury and the midseason losses of both Golden Tate (trade) and Marvin Jones (injured reserve) as the reasons for his demise, but the changes to the offense are a bigger factor. Under this coaching staff, Stafford is a low-end QB2 in fantasy.

Quarterback depth: If backup Tom Savage is ever called into duty, we would need to re-evaluate the fantasy outlooks for every pass-catcher in this offense. At best, Savage could maintain one solid fantasy weapon out of Jones and Kenny Golladay.

Kerryon Johnson, RB

Fantasy Points	248
Carries	219
Rush Yards	1068
Rush TDs	7
Fumbles Lost	1
Targets	69
Receptions	57
Rec. Yards	382
Rec. TDs	1
2PT	0

Even before the release of pass-catching specialist Theo Riddick, we had Johnson at the top of our breakout candidates for 2019. With Riddick out of the equation, Johnson becomes a potential top-12 fantasy back. As a rookie, he amassed at least 85 yards from scrimmage in six of his final eight games and showed off his receiving skills with 17 grabs over his final four appearances. New offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell coached Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch during some of their biggest fantasy campaigns; Johnson is next.

C.J. Anderson, RB

Fantasy Points	80.7
Carries	124
Rush Yards	445
Rush TDs	3
Fumbles Lost	0
Targets	16
Receptions	11
Rec. Yards	72
Rec. TDs	1
2PT	0

The Lions' offense topped 400 carries last season - the first time it reached that mark since 2013. The arrival of Bevell could push the number even higher, which means Anderson should see plenty of carries as the No. 2 option. Still, it won't be enough for him to have weekly fantasy value unless Johnson misses time again. It's worth noting that Anderson's ADP in the 16th round doesn't seem to properly reflect his upside as Johnson's handcuff. He's worth stashing with one of your final picks.

Running back depth: Riddick's departure also opened up a path to production for Ty Johnson, who's a more explosive runner and receiver at this stage of their respective careers. The rookie's main contributions will come as a returner, but if Kerryon goes down, Ty should take on a third-down role while Anderson handles the heavy lifting.

Kenny Golladay, WR

Fantasy Points	206.2
Targets	113
Receptions	67
Rec. Yards	992
Rec. TDs	7
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	1
2PT	0

Golladay emerged a the Lions' go-to receiver last season and a top-24 fantasy option. Even with Jones returning, the 25-year-old Golladay will lead the team in targets again. He's also due for some positive regression in the touchdown department after scoring just five times on 70 catches last year.

Marvin Jones, WR

Fantasy Points	186.3
Targets	102
Receptions	59
Rec. Yards	853
Rec. TDs	7
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Prior to being placed on injured reserve after Week 10, Jones was a top-27 fantasy receiver with 50 yards and/or a touchdown in eight of his nine games. The offense's shift toward the run doesn't help his cause, but Jones' red-zone work will help keep him in the WR3 mix for fantasy.

Receiver depth: Veteran slot receiver Danny Amendola gets a slight stock bump with Riddick gone, but not enough to warrant a roster spot on your fantasy team. Jermaine Kearse is an underrated real-life signing who would be an intriguing replacement if Golladay or Jones suffers an injury.

T.J. Hockenson, TE

Fantasy Points	111.3
Targets	56
Receptions	39
Rec. Yards	483
Rec. TDs	4
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Rookie tight ends rarely make a fantasy impact - especially those on run-first teams - so expectations need to be kept in check for the Lions' first-round pick. He's still worthy of a late-round upside selection in fantasy drafts, but Hockenson's most likely outcome during Year 1 is being a TE2/bye-week streamer. His presence as a run-blocker is another reason to get excited about Kerryon Johnson.

Tight end depth: In addition to drafting Hockenson, the Lions signed free agent Jesse James, who stepped up on several occasions as a spot starter for the Steelers. He'll play a similar role behind Hockenson in Detroit.

2019 Fantasy Projections

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