Each Atlantic Division team's chances of winning a Cup in the next 3 years
The NHL is famous for its parity come playoff time.
Over the last four years, we've seen a team win back-to-back championships, an expansion team make the final, and a pair of clubs win the first titles in franchise history. All bets are off in the springtime, but that doesn't mean some teams aren't better built for success than others.
Looking at four key factors for all 32 organizations (yes, Seattle was included in this exercise), we've ranked each team's chances of winning a Stanley Cup over the next three seasons. In this edition, we focus on the Atlantic Division.
Note: The 32 teams in the exercise were given combined Stanley Cup odds that total 300 percent - 100 percent per year.
Ottawa Senators: 0.8 percent
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...a...a... | a...aaa | a...a...a...a | a...aaa |
The Senators will be hard-pressed to get out of the NHL's basement in 2019-20. There's reason for optimism in the future, though, as the team's prospect pipeline is brimming with talent, and Thomas Chabot and Brady Tkachuk are young high-end players already on the roster. However, the likelihood of Ottawa making the postseason over the next three years is low, let alone winning a Stanley Cup.
Detroit Red Wings: 1 percent
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...aa | a...aaa | a...a...aa | a...a...a...a |
The Red Wings are further ahead in their rebuild than the Senators, but in a stacked division, they'll find it very difficult to earn a postseason berth. The future is bright with Steve Yzerman calling the shots as general manager, but there's still lots of roster turnover that needs to occur before the Wings can even be considered a playoff contender.
Montreal Canadiens: 3 percent
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...aa | a...a...aa | a...a...a...a | a...a...aa |
Montreal has collected plenty of nice young players both on the roster and coming through the team's system. But the club's two cornerstone players - Carey Price and Shea Weber - aren't getting any younger at 31 and 33 years old, respectively. Time is running out for the Habs to make a serious championship run with that duo leading the way. If Montreal makes the playoffs and Price gets hot, anything could happen, but that's not likely.
Buffalo Sabres: 3 percent
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...a...a... | a...a...aa | a...a...aa | a...a...aa |
So much is unknown for the Sabres. The club projects to hold over $38 million in cap space next season, but that's only with eight players signed, and luring free agents to western New York is never easy. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who's just 20 years old, is perhaps the best goalie prospect in the world, and there's plenty of upside for Buffalo defensively. But the club faces far too many holes up front. Casey Mittelstadt is the franchise's biggest X-factor. If he can be the player many expect, the Sabres could turn some heads sooner than later.
Florida Panthers: 15 percent
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...aa | a...a...a...a | a...a...aa | a...a...a...a |
The Panthers arguably improved more than any other team during the offseason, signing goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to fill their biggest need, while also adding defenseman Anton Stralman, and high-energy forward Noel Acciari. On paper, this team is good enough to compete for a Stanley Cup, but the Panthers will need 2014 No. 1 pick Aaron Ekblad to take a stride forward in his development.
Toronto Maple Leafs: 20 percent
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...aaa | a...a...a...a... | a...a...a...a... | a...a...a...a |
Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly might be the NHL's most enviable five-player core. If Marner, a restricted free agent, is re-signed, that quintet will be locked in for the duration of this three-year window, giving the Leafs a legitimate shot at their first Stanley Cup since 1967. The team's defense will improve after the addition of Tyson Barrie, but with Rielly as the only blue-liner signed beyond next season, there's a lot of uncertainty on the back end.
Boston Bruins: 20 percent
Boston Globe / Boston Globe / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...aa | a...a...a...a... | a...a...a...a | a...a...a...a... |
Patrice Bergeron (34), David Krejci (33), Brad Marchand (31), and Tuukka Rask (32) are all aging, but with David Pastrnak (23) and Charlie McAvoy (21) leading the next wave, the Bruins will remain a legitimate threat until the team's core starts to decline. Bergeron, Krejci, and Marchand are all coming off career years, so they don't appear to be slowing anytime soon.
Tampa Bay Lightning: 25 percent
Kirk Irwin / Getty Images Sport / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...aaa | a...a...a...a... | a...a...a...a | a...a...a...a |
If the Lightning can get Brayden Point signed without drastically altering the roster, they'll likely begin next season as Cup favorites. Things won't get easier next summer, though, as Anthony Cirelli, Mathieu Joseph, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak will all be due for significant raises. That's a lot to handle for new GM Julien BriseBois, but he already managed to get star goalie Andre Vasilevskiy signed with an eight-year extension. If the front office can keep the main core together while continuing to draft and develop at a high level, the Bolts will be perennial contenders.
Others in this series:
- Central Division
- Pacific Division
- Metropolitan Division (Aug. 1)
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