Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Can Jaguars' Fournette stay healthy?

Justin Boone

from on 2019-07-30 04:21 (#4M5T1)

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With training camp in full swing, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his offensive projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.

Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:

Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
Passing TDs: 4 points
Interceptions: -2 points
Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Rushing TDs: 6 points
Receptions: 1 point
Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Receiving TDs: 6 points
Fumbles Lost: -2 points
Two-point Conversions: 2 points

2019 Fantasy Projections

AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK | LAC
NFC East
DAL | PHI | NYG | WAS
AFC South
JAX
NFC North
DET | GB

Jacksonville JaguarsNick Foles, QB

Fantasy Points	192
Attempts	522
Completions	329
Pass Yards	3530
Pass TDs	19
INTs	12
Carries	29
Rush Yards	68
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	4
2PT	0

Despite being a former Super Bowl MVP, Foles isn't a star quarterback and the Jaguars' offense will continue to be powered by the run. What the 30-year-old will bring is stability and efficiency to the passing attack, something the team has been lacking for some time. That's good news for the Jags, just don't expect Foles to be a regular fantasy option.

Quarterback depth: Finding one serviceable quarterback has been a struggle in Jacksonville, so it's not surprising their depth chart is pretty bare. Sixth-rounder Gardner Minshew will compete with Tanner Lee and Alex McGough, with the rookie having the most long-term upside.

Leonard Fournette, RB

Fantasy Points	202.1
Carries	245
Rush Yards	904
Rush TDs	8
Fumbles Lost	0
Targets	44
Receptions	35
Rec. Yards	287
Rec. TDs	0
2PT	0

We've discussed the concerns surrounding Fournette's fantasy value several times this offseason and even included him as one of our bust candidates. Let's summarize:

Missed 11 games over his first two seasons
Lower-body injuries dating back to college
Averaged 3.3 yards per carry in 2018
Constantly faces eight or more defenders in the box
Issues with the front office last season
New OC struggled with rushing attack in Minnesota

Fournette will see plenty of volume and be worth starting as a top-15 fantasy back when he's active, but our projections account for just 13 appearances. He carries more risk than most of the top fantasy rushers, which pushes him down into low-end RB2 territory.

Ryquell Armstead, RB

Fantasy Points	61.4
Carries	93
Rush Yards	381
Rush TDs	2
Fumbles Lost	1
Targets	14
Receptions	8
Rec. Yards	53
Rec. TDs	0
2PT	0

Fournette's backup is one of the more important handcuffs to identify given his injury history. Fifth-round rookie Ryquell Armstead is an intriguing option as a creative runner with a physical, aggressive style. He's one of my favorite late-round bench stashes.

Running back depth: Veteran Alfred Blue didn't do much with the spot starts he made in Houston, but his experience on passing downs could earn him a role. Benny Cunningham is also in the mix and offers a similar skill set. We'll need to pay close attention to who the Jags are favoring behind Fournette throughout training camp and the preseason.

Dede Westbrook, WR

Fantasy Points	187
Targets	112
Receptions	71
Rec. Yards	806
Rec. TDs	5
Carries	8
Rush Yards	74
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	1
2PT	0

Westbrook is one of seven players who will lead you to a fantasy title this season, and since that article came out, his stock has steadily risen. Everyone from the coaching staff to the beat writers has praised Westbrook in training camp.

Don't think WR Dede Westbrook has dropped a pass in four days. He has been inpressive
- John Reid (@JohnReid64) July 28, 2019

Offensive coordinator John DeFilippo maximized the talents of his slot receivers in the past, helping Adam Thielen and Nelson Agholor have career years. Westbrook is a WR3 with WR2 upside and has incredible value in the middle rounds.

Marqise Lee, WR

Fantasy Points	98.7
Targets	75
Receptions	41
Rec. Yards	451
Rec. TDs	2
Carries	1
Rush Yards	6
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Lee, who was once the best pass-catcher on the team, is still recovering from a torn ACL that could keep him out early in the season. When healthy, he'll be the Jags' second-most dangerous downfield threat behind Westbrook, but will be hard-pressed to produce consistent numbers in this low-volume passing attack.

Receiver depth: The other receivers on the roster are more difficult to project. Chris Conley, D.J. Chark, and Keelan Cole are vying for the role of field-stretcher. It's possible two of the three earn playing time at the start of the year before Lee returns to the lineup. Conley has displayed a rapport with Foles throughout the offseason program, but the team will give Chark every opportunity after spending a second-round pick on him in 2018. A breakout is unlikely from this group, so treat them as late-round dart throws in best ball.

Geoff Swaim, TE

Fantasy Points	64.1
Targets	35
Receptions	27
Rec. Yards	251
Rec. TDs	2
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

If you're looking to really roll the dice at tight end, Swaim has some true sleeper appeal. Foles has shown an affinity for targeting his tight ends in the past and Swaim is slated to be the starter. He'll be an early season waiver wire target in redraft, an interesting third tight end in best ball, and a big-swing play in DFS.

Tight end depth: Josh Oliver is the Jags' future starter after being chosen in the third round this year. He's a good athlete who makes intuitive adjustments to the ball and can win contested catches. Oliver will need to prove himself as a blocker in order to earn significant playing time in this offense.

2019 Fantasy Projections

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