Everything bettors need to know about A.J. Green's Week 1 absence

Bengals star wide receiver A.J. Green will miss six-to-eight weeks with torn ligaments in his ankle, setting the odds for the opener between Cincinnati and the Seattle Seahawks in motion.

Cincinnati, previously an eight-point underdog, has been ticked up to as high as +9.5 in some shops since the news of Green's injury, making the Bengals the largest underdogs of Week 1.

Here's everything bettors need to know regarding Green's impact on the line.

How much is Green worth?

Quarterbacks are unsurprisingly the most important position when it comes to determining the spread; there's a significant drop-off from an elite starter to your everyday backup. From there, other position players don't typically warrant a huge impact. CG Technology's Will Bernanke told The Action Network last season that when it comes to wide receivers, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones are the two who would undoubtedly move the line if they were sidelined.

Fellow odds consultant Scott Cooley - who tossed DeAndre Hopkins on that list - noted that "oddsmakers might adjust slightly if a team has one stud wide receiver out and no quality complementary receivers around him to step in." Green essentially fits that bill - no offense to Tyler Boyd - though Cooley added a situation like that would be a half-point or full-point shift, maximum.

The early indication is a slight overreaction.

Bengals still fall into sweet angle

Cincinnati doesn't look like an attractive pick for Week 1. The Bengals are off a 6-10 season in which they collapsed during the second half and are traveling to the toughest place to play against a Seahawks team coming off a playoff berth. However, teams with a worse record than their Week 1 opponent from the season prior are currently on a 49-34-1 (58.3) run against the spread the previous six years.

Wait if you like the Bengals

There's no telling if Cincinnati has topped out at +9.5 in the market. The loss of a team's No. 1 receiver might still force bettors' hands in playing the Seahawks with how much time is left before the opening week. If bettors want to play the Bengals, you might be better off waiting to see if the spread gets to 10 before pulling the trigger. NFL games have been decided by nine points just 1.8 percent of the time, the smallest percentage for any number 1-to-17.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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