Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Will Packers' offense bounce back under LaFleur?

Justin Boone

from on 2019-07-30 04:23 (#4M6TF)

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With training camp in full swing, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his offensive projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.

Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:

Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
Passing TDs: 4 points
Interceptions: -2 points
Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Rushing TDs: 6 points
Receptions: 1 point
Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Receiving TDs: 6 points
Fumbles Lost: -2 points
Two-point Conversions: 2 points

2019 Fantasy Projections

AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK | LAC
NFC East
DAL | PHI | NYG | WAS
AFC South
JAX
NFC North
DET | GB

Green Bay PackersAaron Rodgers, QB

Fantasy Points	316.52
Attempts	567
Completions	363
Pass Yards	4368
Pass TDs	29
INTs	6
Carries	49
Rush Yards	278
Rush TDs	2
Fumbles Lost	3
2PT	2

Last season was a trying one for the Packers' offense, as their unimaginative scheme made it difficult to gain edges on opponents each week. Rodgers also played through a tibial plateau fracture and a sprained MCL he suffered in the season opener - and still managed to finish with the sixth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks. It shouldn't shock anyone to hear Rodgers express enthusiasm over the arrival of new head coach Matt LaFleur. As long as the transition from the Mike McCarthy era continues to go smoothly, the biggest obstacle Rodgers will face in 2019 is a tough schedule - the most challenging of any fantasy quarterback according to our matrix. Don't let that scare you.

Quarterback depth: No one can replace Rodgers, but the Packers are fairly deep at quarterback if the franchise passer goes down with an injury. DeShone Kizer has a year of starting experience under his belt thanks to his 2017 rookie season with the Browns. Strong-armed Tim Boyle, meanwhile, is entering his second year with Green Bay.

Aaron Jones, RB

Fantasy Points	255.5
Carries	234
Rush Yards	1287
Rush TDs	9
Fumbles Lost	1
Targets	51
Receptions	36
Rec. Yards	268
Rec. TDs	2
2PT	0

Anyone who listens to theScore Fantasy Football Podcast knows our love for Jones is powerful and unrelenting. Though he appeared in just 12 games in 2018, Jones was on pace for 1,245 yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns over the course of a full schedule. The drumbeat of positive reports coming out of Packers camp suggests he's positioned to deliver a career year under the new coaching staff. He's a fringe RB1 with the talent to reach the top five if given the necessary volume.

Jamaal Williams, RB

Fantasy Points	97.1
Carries	93
Rush Yards	328
Rush TDs	2
Fumbles Lost	0
Targets	37
Receptions	26
Rec. Yards	203
Rec. TDs	1
2PT	0

Williams doesn't have Jones' upside, but he's been a reliable starter when called upon. A hamstring injury has sidelined him for part of training camp, opening the door for rookie Dexter Williams to showcase his skills and potentially close the gap for the No. 2 job; the younger Williams is a good athlete and a smart runner who knows when to wait for blocks to develop and shows good burst once they do.

Running back depth: Beyond the clear top three, the Packers recently signed Corey Grant, a pass-catching specialist with game-breaking ability. If he sticks, his playing time might come on special teams, but he could contribute on offense if the opportunity arises.

Davante Adams, WR

Fantasy Points	313.6
Targets	165
Receptions	107
Rec. Yards	1326
Rec. TDs	12
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	1

Adams was one of last season's most consistent fantasy assets, posting at least 81 yards and/or a touchdown in all 15 games he played. He also tied for second in targets across the entire NFL, and Rodgers said he wants to throw to him even more. All things considered, Adams is the No. 1 receiver in my 2019 fantasy rankings.

Geronimo Allison, WR

Fantasy Points	166.8
Targets	96
Receptions	59
Rec. Yards	858
Rec. TDs	4
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

The debate over whether Allison or Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the more valuable fantasy wideout might not really matter if the passing attack improves under LaFleur. Allison is settling in as the Packers' slot man while MVS occupies the outside spot across from Adams. Allison was off to a hot start last year before a groin injury derailed his campaign: He was on pace for 76 receptions, 1,156 yards, and eight touchdowns after the first four outings. Though he might not reach that type of ceiling in 2019, Allison is an intriguing WR4/flex option, one who could easily find his way into fantasy lineups every week thanks to his upside in this offense.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR

Fantasy Points	136.8
Targets	87
Receptions	46
Rec. Yards	701
Rec. TDs	3
Carries	3
Rush Yards	27
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

One of the things that held Valdes-Scantling back as a rookie was his relationship with Rodgers, who seemed to lose patience with him on the field. The sophomore seems to have won his quarterback over in the offseason, as Rodgers has praised him for playing with more confidence and standing out. Valdes-Scantling isn't far behind Allison as a fantasy option, though MVS's floor is a little lower.

Receiver depth: Equanimeous St. Brown and Jake Kumerow are the Packers' other two receivers of note, but injuries will need to strike before either becomes fantasy relevant. Toss them on your watchlist as potential in-season waiver wire adds.

Jimmy Graham, TE

Fantasy Points	110.2
Targets	73
Receptions	45
Rec. Yards	472
Rec. TDs	3
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Graham, who turns 33 in November, is coming off a decent year in terms of receptions and yardage. Unfortunately, he faded down the stretch and his two touchdowns crushed his year-end fantasy point total. Now, not only does he have to deal with Allison and Valdes-Scantling emerging in the receiving corps, but the Packers also drafted his successor in Jace Sternberger, who could have a role in Year 1. That moves Graham into the TE2 range as more of a fantasy streamer in what could be his final year in Green Bay.

Tight end depth: Sternberger is a smooth route-runner, especially down the seam, and his ability to gain yards after the catch was evident in college. Unless Graham gets injured, however, we likely won't hear much from the rookie this season.

2019 Fantasy Projections

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