Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Is Colts' Mack a top-10 running back?

Justin Boone

from on 2019-07-30 15:19 (#4M85F)

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With training camp in full swing, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his offensive projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.

Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:

Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
Passing TDs: 4 points
Interceptions: -2 points
Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Rushing TDs: 6 points
Receptions: 1 point
Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Receiving TDs: 6 points
Fumbles Lost: -2 points
Two-point Conversions: 2 points

2019 Fantasy Projections

AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK | LAC
NFC East
DAL | PHI | NYG | WAS
AFC South
JAC | IND
NFC North
DET | GB

Indianapolis ColtsAndrew Luck, QB

Fantasy Points	311.78
Attempts	603
Completions	398
Pass Yards	4522
Pass TDs	35
INTs	14
Carries	44
Rush Yards	189
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	2
2PT	2

Luck enters the 2019 campaign in the best situation of his career. The 29-year-old is surrounded by talent, including one of the league's best offensive lines. After tying his career high of 41 sacks in 2016, Luck was sacked just 18 times last year. The team has also beefed up his weapons with the arrival of Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell to fill out the receiving corps behind T.Y. Hilton. A calf injury has kept Luck out of a few practices early in training camp, but there's no reason to worry yet, he's a set-it-and-forget-it top-four fantasy quarterback.

Quarterback depth: The Colts are even deep at quarterback with a potential future starter in Jacoby Brissett. While there have been rumors of a possible trade, it's more likely that Brissett plays out his deal and becomes a free agent after the season. Chad Kelly's attempt to revive his once-promising career is taking place in Indy, as well, though he has a long way to go before he even earns a roster spot.

Marlon Mack, RB

Fantasy Points	232.3
Carries	259
Rush Yards	1217
Rush TDs	10
Fumbles Lost	0
Targets	35
Receptions	24
Rec. Yards	206
Rec. TDs	1
2PT	2

After returning to the Colts' lineup in Week 6, Mack became a top-10 fantasy back the rest of the way. Much of the credit for his production goes to an offensive line that posted the fourth-best adjusted line yards, according to Football Outsiders. We currently have Mack ranked as a high-end RB2, but if he can stay healthy, a top-10 season is well within reach in this offense.

Nyheim Hines, RB

Fantasy Points	122.7
Carries	56
Rush Yards	229
Rush TDs	1
Fumbles Lost	0
Targets	67
Receptions	49
Rec. Yards	328
Rec. TDs	2
2PT	0

Hines disappeared in the playoffs but was a regular contributor on offense before January. Though head coach Frank Reich acknowledged that the arrival of Campbell as a dynamic receiving weapon could affect Hines, he confirmed the 22-year-old's role as the third-down back. That makes Hines a desperation flex play with minimal upside since an injury to Mack would thrust one of the team's bigger backs into the starting spot.

Running back depth: Spencer Ware, Jordan Wilkins, and Jonathan Williams are battling for backup duties. Ware was my pick to secure the job before he suffered a muscle injury that's expected to sideline him for a couple of weeks. It's now a wide-open competition that needs to be monitored because the Colts' offensive line is capable of making a fantasy star out of anyone.

T.Y. Hilton, WR

Fantasy Points	245
Targets	125
Receptions	78
Rec. Yards	1310
Rec. TDs	6
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Hilton will remain Luck's favorite target even with the upgrade in talent around him. In his last two full seasons with Luck at the helm, Hilton averaged 84 receptions, 1,359 yards, and six touchdowns per year. His projection above falls in a similar range, putting him in the mix as a low-end WR1 in fantasy.

Devin Funchess, WR

Fantasy Points	133.4
Targets	85
Receptions	47
Rec. Yards	564
Rec. TDs	5
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Don't judge Funchess for how his time in Carolina ended. The team decided it was going to let him walk, and as a result, reduced his snaps as the season went along. Just remember, he had 840 yards and eight touchdowns in 2017 and was on pace for 77 catches, 997 yards, and another eight scores midway through 2018. He won't see No. 1 receiver volume in Indy, but his red-zone skills will be a welcome addition. As Eric Ebron's touchdown total regresses, Funchess will rise as a touchdown-dependent flex play.

Parris Campbell, WR

Fantasy Points	125.1
Targets	76
Receptions	51
Rec. Yards	478
Rec. TDs	4
Carries	7
Rush Yards	43
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	1
2PT	0

Campbell's usage in Ohio State's offense kept him in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field far too often. The Colts recognize what they have in the playmaking rookie and will deploy him all over the formation, taking advantage of his speed in every facet of the game. Campbell has drawn rave reviews throughout the offseason and could create a bigger impact in Year 1 than people realize.

Receiver depth: Chester Rogers and Zach Pascal showed they can step up as relief options when needed; they just don't offer Funchess' and Campbell's upside. Deon Cain does possess game-breaking skills, but there might not be enough snaps available for him to be worth fantasy consideration.

Eric Ebron, TE

Fantasy Points	159.4
Targets	89
Receptions	56
Rec. Yards	624
Rec. TDs	7
Carries	2
Rush Yards	10
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	1
2PT	0

After an outstanding debut season with the Colts, Ebron should come with a warning label in 2019 that simply reads "bust." It's not his fault. Scoring 14 total touchdowns is difficult for any player to repeat, let alone a tight end who now faces more stiff target competition. Ebron will be a low-end TE1, but he's being drafted as a top-six option.

Jack Doyle, TE

Fantasy Points	111.3
Targets	58
Receptions	45
Rec. Yards	423
Rec. TDs	4
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Doyle needs to prove he can stay healthy before we can trust him as a consistent part of the offense. The good news is the long-time Colt has been cleared to participate in training camp after dealing with hip and kidney issues last season. We're still tempering expectations and projecting him as a TE2 in the loaded Colts attack.

Tight end depth: Mo Alie-Cox has received some buzz as a potential breakout candidate in real life, but that would require Ebron or Doyle to miss time. If that doesn't happen, keep him in mind for 2020 after both current tight ends become free agents.

2019 Fantasy Projections

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