Each Pacific Division team's chances of winning a Cup in the next 3 years
The NHL is famous for its parity come playoff time.
Over the last four years, we've seen a team win back-to-back championships, an expansion franchise make the final, and a pair of clubs win their first-ever titles. All bets are off in the spring, but that doesn't mean some teams aren't built for success better than others are.
We looked at four key factors for all 32 organizations - including Seattle - and predicted each team's chances of winning a Stanley Cup during the next three seasons. In this edition, we focus on the Pacific Division.
Note: The 32 teams in the exercise were given combined Stanley Cup odds that total 300 percent - 100 percent per year.
Seattle: 0.1 percent
Dave Sandford / National Hockey League / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...a...a... | aaaa | aaaa | a...a...aa |
Beginning play in 2021-22, Seattle will be around for only one season of the three-year window. The NHL's newest franchise will have a much more difficult time competing in its inaugural season than the Vegas Golden Knights did, as general managers will be better prepared for the expansion draft this time.
Los Angeles Kings: 0.8 percent
Adam Pantozzi / National Hockey League / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...aa | a...a...aa | a...aaa | a...a...aa |
Despite boasting a former Selke Trophy honoree in Anze Kopitar and former Norris Trophy winner Drew Doughty, the Kings need a lot of help. There are a handful of decent prospects coming through the pipeline, but only 2019 fifth overall pick Alex Turcotte projects to have an immediate impact in the NHL. The Kings are in the infancy stages of their rebuild and it's going to take plenty of time before they make a return to relevancy.
Anaheim Ducks: 0.9 percent
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...a...a | a...aaa | a...a...aa | a...a...aa |
The Ducks are in an unfamiliar state. After being competitive for the better part of the last 15 years, the club is entering a rebuilding stage. The kids - Trevor Zegras, Sam Steel, Troy Terry, Max Jones, Max Comtois, and Jacob Larsson - aren't quite ready to grab the torch and run with it, and the veteran core isn't good enough anymore to continue to carry the load. John Gibson, Hampus Lindholm, and Rickard Rakell remain building blocks, but Anaheim is more than three years away from a return to glory.
Arizona Coyotes: 2 percent
Norm Hall / National Hockey League / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...aa | a...aaa | a...a...a...a | a...a...aa |
The Coyotes will be in the Central Divison in three years, but we still included them in the Pacific for this exercise. Arizona battled more injuries than any other team did last season and still finished just four points out of a playoff spot. There's reason to believe the Yotes will snap their seven-year playoff drought in 2019-20, but it seems unlikely they'll make a run at the Cup. Phil Kessel was a great addition up front, but it speaks volumes that he's the team's top forward by a landslide. The Coyotes will need Clayton Keller to explode onto the scene if they are going to take the next step,
Edmonton Oilers: 3 percent
Michael Martin / National Hockey League / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...aa | a...a...a...a... | a...a...aa | a...a...aa |
The Oilers have the crown jewel in Connor McDavid and we're still giving them just a three percent chance, which shows how much work Ken Holland needs to do to clean up Peter Chiarelli's mess. Swapping Milan Lucic for James Neal was a good start, but this team is still missing an answer between the pipes, mobility on defense, and depth scoring. Holland needs to find cheap, effective wingers so McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can carry their own lines, which will give the team its best shot at a Stanley Cup.
Vancouver Canucks: 5 percent
Jeff Vinnick / National Hockey League / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...aa | a...a...a...a | a...a...a...a... | a...a...aa |
The Canucks' young core of Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser, and Quinn Hughes is one of the most enviable groups in the league. The biggest concern for Vancouver is the decision-making of GM Jim Benning. He's been excellent when it comes to the draft but has handed out some egregious, long-term contracts to undeserving players who could handcuff the team over the next three seasons, thus capping the potential of this promising club.
Calgary Flames: 12 percent
Gerry Thomas / National Hockey League / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...aa | a...a...a...a | a...a...a...a | a...a...aa |
Last season may have been Calgary's best chance at a Cup for the foreseeable future. Mark Giordano had a career year, Matthew Tkachuk was on the last season of his entry-level contract, and the team received stellar goaltending in the playoffs from Mike Smith. With Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm, and Tkachuk leading the way up front and four promising defensemen who are no older than 22, the Flames will be competitive. Questions remain, though. Is David Rittich the answer between the pipes? Or, at the very least, can he get hot in the spring? Only time will tell.
San Jose Sharks: 18 percent
Ezra Shaw / Getty Images Sport / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...a...aa | a...a...a...a... | a...a...aa | a...a...a...a... |
Much like the Flames, the Sharks' real opportunity to win it all was last year, as Erik Karlsson was on a team-friendly deal, Joe Pavelski was still on the roster, and Timo Meier was severely underpaid. The window is far from closed, though, especially considering the majority of this group is still in their prime. Martin Jones is the X-factor. If he can return to his pre-2018 form and both Karlsson and Brent Burns are healthy, look out.
Vegas Golden Knights: 20 percent
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| Cap Flexibility | Cornerstone Players | Ascending Talent | Coaching/Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| a...aaa | a...a...a...a | a...a...a...a | a...a...a...a... |
After making a handful of minor moves this offseason, the Golden Knights have escaped salary cap purgatory. They're barely under the limit, but the entire core is locked up long term - most of them on team-friendly contracts thanks to Nevada's lack of state tax. Cody Glass, the first draft pick in franchise history, should make his NHL debut this season and could have a substantial impact during the next three years, which could potentially push this team over the top. The only question is, how many more years of elite play does Marc-Andre Fleury, 34, have in the crease?
Others in this series:
- Atlantic Division
- Central Division
- Metropolitan Division (Aug. 1)
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